Curie Division 2008

[shortone1320]

Don't forget us team 126. We'll be there, better than ever.

[tennispro9911]

We leave tomorrow at 7 on a bus from Binghamton, NY area and will arrive mid-day Wednesday.

One day until we leave.

Two days until uncrating.

Three days until practice matches start.

Four days until matches matter.

Five days until the Curie Division champion takes home the gold overall!!!!!!!!!!!

Alright, who wants to be bold and make predictions?

If I have time, I'm going to use the offensive power rankings and go through and simulate matches to get the top 8 seeds if everything went according to power rankings which it won't. I'll try to do both overall considering all regionals and the highest regional power ranking. That will be interesting to see how that turns out. I've seen 67 and 191 in person and had the pleasure of being on 191's alliance at FLR, which is a huge reason my team is competing in Atlanta this week. Both have great robots.

[micbel9]

I believe that 2337 has a very good chance.

[micbel9]

We fly out tomorrow night, and we have all day Wednesday and all day Sunday to ourselves, and we are staying at the Marriot marquis(sp.)

[nikeairmancurry]

To make any bold predictions you would have to see a couple of quailifing matches to start to get an idea of whos robobts are capatible with who.

As example.. At GLR we wouldn't have wanted to be on an alliance with the martians (70, 494) because we felt that we would have to many automous problems of running into each other. Also with rush (27) we weren't a really able to play their style of offenise they wanted us to play. With HOT (67) we were able to qucikly help them get balls down for them to have one to hurdle, also in three matches we had atleset 30 point autons (one being a lovely 60 points).

So i say once see acouple of matches you'll have a better idea of who can work with who.

But i'll give you a small prediction of a good alliance that could take Curie and put a strong fight on Einstien..

If 67/326/33 were on any allaince its over...Some qucik stats

67- Winner GLR, hurdle 4-5, 4 to 5 lines in auton

326- Winner GLR, hurdle 2-3, run 7-8 laps, 4 to 5 lines in auton maybe a ball or two

33- Semifinalest in all 3 reginoals, hurdle 4 to 5, get 3-4 lines in auton

Perfect matches with these three teams (and both balls down in auton) possible scores of : 152 (w/o 326 hurding and runnig laps playing defense)

4 hurdles by 33/67= 80 points 5 laps by 326= 10 points
perfect auton 67=16 points 33=16 points 326= 32 points(with two balls down)

But this is all totally a unlikely happening, 326 or 33 being a 3rd round pick is very unlikely, but who knows.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

If 67/326/33 were on any allaince its over.

Thats a pretty bold statement, their are a ton of great robots in curie, and I'd also say that, with the utmost respect for their team, 33 seems a little over rated to me. Good robot, definitely. As great as they were two years+ ago, not in my opinion. Also, if your gonna say that an alliance of 67/326/33 were unstoppable, I'd have to counter with an alliance of 191/1477/118. That by no means would be an easy match up for your unstoppable alliance and their would be a high chance of you losing. But lets be realistic, there is almost no chance of either of these alliances happening because they are all teams that will go quickly. So let me make this very general prediction, if any alliance has three robots that all rank in the top 15 OPR wise at (and this is very important) THE CHAMPIONSHIP (not based on previous performances) AND is a strategically balanced alliance, they will be the team to beat.

[vic burg]

Originally Posted by technoL

Yay I get to scout now! I think this is like the 4th or 5th time 108 has been in Curie.

Since 2005, so this year is the 4th year in a row. And unless any teams in between us and number get added, then we will probably stay in Curie for a few more years.
I'm wondering though, if FIRST will ever switch up the order/way they do the placement. (i.e. By 3s, a random picker (like the Lotto), etc.)

[Freddy Schurr]

I believe that 2337 has a very good chance.

Watch Out Curie! This team has some serious potential to make it to Einstein!

[Greg Needel]

Similarly to Joe Ross in the Galileo Thread. This is an iterative ranks result. The team list was cycled 256 times and then using the OPR the winners of each match were determined. Then using FIRST's ranking criteria the ranks were generated for each iteration. What you see here is the summary report for all 256 runs of this process.

the data is in this format
Team numbers (sorted by highest percent of being #1 seed)
Highest rank achieved throughout all the cycles
lowest rank achieved throughout all the cycles
Average rank
Median rank (the middle)
Mode (most common rank)
Times a team was the #1 seed (out of 256 cycles)
Times a team was in the top 8 (out of 256 cycles)
% a team was in the top 8 (out of 256 cycles)



Now I would like to note that this is based solely on the OPR which is past performance and while there are teams that don't show they can make the top 8 statistically in real life anything can happen. Basically don't think that I was attacking your team if you are lower than you think you should be as this doesn't take into account defense, robots breaking, penalties, etc. This all for fun anyway.

Thanks to Joe Ross for the code to do this, my way was not nearly as elegant as his.

Teams	Min	Max	average	median mode   #1 seed	top 8	%top 8
67	1	47	10	6	1	40	155	60.5%
1126	1	47	9	7	1	28	148	57.8%
368	1	61	13	9	6	19	124	48.4%
2171	1	48	9	8	2	18	134	52.3%
16	1	63	16	12	6	18	95	37.1%
33	1	56	14	11	5	16	113	44.1%
191	1	65	15	12	4	15	97	37.9%
100	1	64	16	13	5	13	88	34.4%
395	1	63	14	11	3	12	107	41.8%
326	1	76	21	18	8	9	58	22.7%
126	1	67	17	14	5	8	92	35.9%
2337	1	67	14	11	5	7	96	37.5%
501	1	74	22	20	12	7	47	18.4%
1511	1	65	19	16	9	6	64	25.0%
237	1	76	21	17	14	6	60	23.4%
118	1	65	23	22	18	6	40	15.6%
358	1	78	21	17	17	5	56	21.9%
1477	1	61	19	17	9	4	57	22.3%
768	1	77	21	17	8	4	58	22.7%
2590	1	83	28	27	21	3	27	10.5%
703	1	79	19	17	8	2	62	24.2%
1592	1	77	22	20	19	2	51	19.9%
45	1	81	28	28	29	2	25	9.8%
1649	1	75	32	29	21	1	16	6.3%
2344	1	85	36	36	36	1	11	4.3%
231	1	83	43	45	64	1	4	1.6%
173	1	85	46	46	44	1	3	1.2%
1939	1	85	54	56	55	1	1	0.4%
1418	2	83	31	28	21	0	20	7.8%
435	2	81	33	31	31	0	16	6.3%
1350	2	82	35	33	28	0	10	3.9%
294	3	85	40	40	46	0	8	3.1%
57	2	80	38	39	45	0	9	3.5%
573	3	78	37	34	34	0	6	2.3%
223	5	84	44	44	48	0	1	0.4%
108	5	84	42	43	19	0	7	2.7%
2609	2	83	40	37	24	0	4	1.6%
903	3	84	43	42	63	0	6	2.3%
1732	4	85	42	41	23	0	4	1.6%
1747	2	84	43	44	65	0	3	1.2%
155	6	84	45	46	43	0	4	1.6%
486	2	83	46	47	46	0	5	2.0%
1386	2	84	46	44	52	0	3	1.2%
2520	4	85	51	53	66	0	3	1.2%
138	5	85	49	50	64	0	3	1.2%
1989	4	85	47	46	38	0	3	1.2%
75	4	85	49	50	63	0	2	0.8%
178	2	82	49	50	50	0	5	2.0%
1802	7	85	52	53	75	0	1	0.4%
418	8	84	50	50	63	0	1	0.4%
1025	6	85	50	51	78	0	2	0.8%
271	4	85	52	54	51	0	2	0.8%
2474	3	85	51	54	37	0	3	1.2%
1013	8	84	52	52	35	0	1	0.4%
1699	11	84	53	54	68	0	0	0.0%
2053	5	84	52	53	51	0	2	0.8%
1860	2	84	54	56	71	0	1	0.4%
340	12	85	55	55	76	0	0	0.0%
1566	10	85	52	53	66	0	0	0.0%
967	6	85	54	57	69	0	2	0.8%
1245	12	85	56	57	54	0	0	0.0%
527	5	85	56	58	38	0	1	0.4%
2410	2	84	53	56	38	0	2	0.8%
2556	9	85	56	58	38	0	0	0.0%
462	3	85	57	59	59	0	3	1.2%
304	5	85	58	60	80	0	1	0.4%
1311	9	85	58	61	54	0	0	0.0%
1533	10	85	57	59	57	0	0	0.0%
2038	11	85	59	64	71	0	0	0.0%
86	10	85	59	62	47	0	0	0.0%
1102	10	85	62	65	72	0	0	0.0%
830	7	85	50	50	39	0	3	1.2%
2115	10	85	62	66	85	0	0	0.0%
1156	7	85	62	67	80	0	1	0.4%
858	2	85	63	67	79	0	1	0.4%
1071	12	85	63	69	72	0	0	0.0%
1266	9	85	64	67	80	0	0	0.0%
2629	4	85	63	66	57	0	2	0.8%
1599	16	85	69	73	81	0	0	0.0%
2454	14	85	68	73	83	0	0	0.0%
4	13	85	67	71	80	0	0	0.0%
604	22	85	71	74	83	0	0	0.0%
2429	29	85	73	77	85	0	0	0.0%
203	24	85	73	78	84	0	0	0.0%
677	35	85	78	81	85	0	0	0.0%

[XaulZan11]

To respond to some different posts:

Since people have already starting making some predictions, I'll post mine. I'm predicting that 16/67/1592 will take the division. 16 and 67 both are fantastic hurdles and 1592 is an all around solid robot that can fit many different roles.

I agree that 2337 is the real deal. I heard a lot about them and saw them boot the ball over the overpass, but I thought they were just a one trick pony and because of thier cool method of hurdling, they were getting too much attention. But after scouting them, I was cleary wrong. Not only are they one of the most fun teams to watch hurdle, they have a good hybrid, good knockoff and very good drivers. I usually don't like a rookie's chances getting into eliminations for the Championship, but these team have a fantastic chance.

To the numbers that Greg posted, they show how wide open this division is. There are plenty of teams that have a legitimate chance at getting the number 1 seed.

There are also a lot of sleepers. One sleeper that I haven't heard anyone talk about is 2171. I think many people see their high number and just dismiss them right off the bat. Unlike 2337, they don't have the flashy hurdling so they tend to get lost in the suffle. They were the top seed and eventual winner in West Michigan, so they have proven they can win. Once they get in a roll, they are deadly, and I doubt they will face much defense (atleast early on). While they may not be on the top line, they are a strong team that will fly under the radar and may be a favorable schedule away from capturing a high seed.

A second team that could suprise is 501. In watching thier matches, they showed flashes of greatness but other times was just good. If they play as well as they can the whole time, they could be a major threat.

Whatever happens, it should be very exciting!

[Davey H]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

33- Semifinalest in all 3 reginoals, hurdle 4 to 5, get 3-4 lines in auton

Actually we were Quarter Finalists at Midwest, Finalist at West Michigan, and Semi Finalists at GLR

[Davey H]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

33 seems a little over rated to me.

Ouch

[Meredith Novak]

The "never bet against Beatty" philosophy is true for the Killer Bees as well. They are always an excellent and very professional team. Especially when the pressure is on. The harder the competition gets, the better they get.

[tennispro9911]

Check out http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2123? for info about 2053.

[XaulZan11]

The whole overrated/underrated debate depends on who your talking to. If someone thinks 33 is the best team this year (better than 1114), then yeah, they are probably overrated. If you talk to someone who thinks they are just good, then they are probably underrated. I think 33 can hold thier own against anyone in Curie and wouldn't be surprised at all if they get to Einstien.