Predictions on how the games are gonna go!

[Jason Morrella]

I haven't really done the detailed prediction thing in the past, but since there are a number of new twists in FRC this year I'll give it a go:

1. I predict that the new surface or rules will NOT in any large way result in "leveling the playing field" or giving any sort of advantage to newer teams over veterans as some have predicted. I think the veteran teams who consistently perform at a top level will do so again, proving that their structure, organization, design process and experience are the main ingredients for their success. As usual, I also expect many newer teams to take big steps to the next level as they build on their experience.

2. I predict that this season will show that three groups of teams will have a huge advantage over the rest of the field: teams that were part of the CRio Beta test, teams in the different FIRST in Michigan model and teams that have the resources/funds to build a full 2nd practice robot and practice field.

2a. I predict that at least 5 of the 6 final teams on Einstein in Atlanta will have been in those groups.

3. I predict that if it is finally shown beyond any doubt that the teams which have more time to work on their robots at home, teams that got to pay less to play and the teams that have the resources to build practice robots have a huge competitive advantage over everyone else, that it will force FIRST to get rid of the 6 week build schedule and required robot shipping to events. Yes, I'm saying teams will get to keep their robots, will get to keep working on them and will get to bring them to each event themselves. Those are not the only reasons I think this change will be made - other factors that will result in this major change will be financial savings to FIRST and how much easier/simpler many aspects would be (so many rule debates are based on the shipping and fix it windows, issues like the passionate battery debate would disappear - freeing up time, energy and sanity for mentors, students and the GDC members).

3a. This would also save FedEx money overall, so I'm sure FIRST and FedEx will still ensure donated shipping to/from events for teams not within driving distance of a regional.

I know, prediction 3 is a big one, but especially in economic times like these, there are just way too many resources (money) going into shipping and the need to build practice robots. Those funds could be much better spent on school materials and equipment, travel or just reduced fundraising stress if practice robots were no longer needed and shipping expenses were removed.

4. I predict the game will end up being liked (but a couple of the rules will be very disliked) and the playoffs at all events and the Championship will be very entertaining as usual.

5. I predict/hope everyone has a great season and looks back proudly on all their hard work, time, dedication, teamwork and accomplishments (which has nothing to do with how their robot finishes at an event).

[Mr. Lim]

An immobile robot on your alliance = 40+ point disadvantage

These robots will dictate the outcome of a match more than anything else.

It's week 1. Things break, teams aren't totally prepared, keys fall out, chains slip, programs are run instead of downloaded, PWM cables come loose. A lot of "shift" happens this week.

Non-mobile and semi-mobile robots have always made regular appearances in qualifiers. But in past years, better than average teams could still dig their alliance out of a hole. (In fact last year, I almost witnessed an alliance of three no-shows beat an alliance of one mobile robot)

Come 2nd pick time, at regionals without deep fields, expect reliable drivetrains and strong human players to round out the top seeds.

[GODUX123]

I know it's impossible, but one of our mentors said she had a dream that we'd score 206 pts. in a single match. Beat that!

[GODUX123]

One more thing, dumpers won't dominate because of accuracy.

[Killraine]

Originally Posted by Jason Morrella

3. I predict that if it is finally shown beyond any doubt that the teams which have more time to work on their robots at home, teams that got to pay less to play and the teams that have the resources to build practice robots have a huge competitive advantage over everyone else, that it will force FIRST to get rid of the 6 week build schedule and required robot shipping to events. Yes, I'm saying teams will get to keep their robots, will get to keep working on them and will get to bring them to each event themselves. Those are not the only reasons I think this change will be made - other factors that will result in this major change will be financial savings to FIRST and how much easier/simpler many aspects would be (so many rule debates are based on the shipping and fix it windows, issues like the passionate battery debate would disappear - freeing up time, energy and sanity for mentors, students and the GDC members).

3a. This would also save FedEx money overall, so I'm sure FIRST and FedEx will still ensure donated shipping to/from events for teams not within driving distance of a regional.

I can't imagine that FIRST would EVER get rid of the 6 weeks/ship date. This policy is the only thing that comes close to balancing the early vs late regionals. If you are in the last regional and you don't have to ship, you have a whole extra build season!

As for what we will see in competition?

I'm betting on a lot of cluster and disorganization for longer than in previous years. Since this competition is based more on the robots than the game elements, teams will need to develop strategies for handling different opponents. We will start to see real alliance strategies at the Week 1 elimination rounds after alliances have been formed. As a whole, Lunacy will prove to be a much more unpredictable game than we think and we will be surprised by some truly ingenious alliance strategies (aka Champions.)

[Jason Morrella]

Originally Posted by Killraine

I can't imagine that FIRST would EVER get rid of the 6 weeks/ship date. This policy is the only thing that comes close to balancing the early vs late regionals. If you are in the last regional and you don't have to ship, you have a whole extra build season!

You're forgetting one thing - at any event, no matter where it is during the season/calendar, every team will have had their robots up until that point, so the "build season" for each team is the same as any/all teams they would ever be competing against. Effectively, the build season for every team will be the same - from the kickoff until the end of the last event they compete in that season (if other teams play at a later date, that doesn't matter or impact the finished teams at all).

PS - I'm not saying I'm in favor or not in favor of prediction # 3 (pros and cons both ways), it's just a prediction, that's all.

I agree with Vikesrock about prediction # 2. The only way to really tell will be by looking at those groups of teams as a whole - the perennial top teams and the ones that might not have been as successful the past couple years. What percentage of those teams made the finals at events, how many seeded at the top, how'd they do at events outside of Michigan and so on. If nothing else it'll be a nice statistical analysis that might show something or nothing.

[waialua359]

Jason,
Great points made.
I wont be surprised anymore as FIRST moves forward to making things bigger, better, and more efficient/cost effective. The economy certainly will affect all of us if those things aren't proactively looked at.
From the new control system, to different flooring for a change, to more collaborations amongst teams across the continent, to predictions from "Looking Forward," former students becoming elite mentors of new teams, to expansion to different countries, to the use of Twitter, etc. it makes myself excited year after year, despite the hardships that come with doing such a program.
This whole FIRST thing is a dam-n you do dam-n you dont program.
Some days you want to just take a break from it all, and the next day, you miss it and cant stop thinking about it.

I'd bet that after every regional event, FIRST participants have a hard time sleeping, playing matches in their head over and over and over again.

[Vikesrock]

Originally Posted by Jason Morrella

2. I predict that this season will show that three groups of teams will have a huge advantage over the rest of the field: teams that were part of the CRio Beta test, teams in the different FIRST in Michigan model and teams that have the resources/funds to build a full 2nd practice robot and practice field.

2a. I predict that at least 5 of the 6 final teams on Einstein in Atlanta will have been in those groups.

I kind of feel like this one is pretty heavily tied to #1. The teams that were part of the beta test and the teams that have the resources to build a practice robot are many of the same teams that we see having great success year after year. I think it would be very difficult to discern if being part of the beta test or having a practice robot had an effect. The same goes for any of the Michigan teams that nobody would be surprised to see on Einstein (33, 47, 67, 217, etc..).