Predictions Week 2: Lunar Landing

[Looking Forward]

Similar to 2008, even with (hopefully) fewer field problems and a week of regionals under FIRST's belt, the quality of play in week 2 is likely to decline from week one. There are two fewer events, 109 fewer teams, and several less top tier teams out to play this weekend than last.
While depth will be a major concern at almost every event this weekend, there are still going to be some great teams to watch. Last week, six of the eight champions were #1 seeds, and both of the lower seeds had the best bots at their regionals in them (121 and 1625). Expect similar results again in week 2.

PREDICTIONS:

FINGER LAKES:
Rochester has increased in size since last year, but the competitive level won't be the same. The losses of 20, 65, 67, 68, 272, 365, and 768 will hurt both the depth and the upper level talent here. It isn't as though this regional will be devoid of good teams though, with several quality machines and veteran leadership venturing to upstate New York.

GM Spartonics is often overshadowed by their big brother the Simbots. But 1503 is a quality team in their own right, and will look to capture a regional victory without 1114's aid for the first time in team history. Their design has potential, but I don't know if they will be able to capture it. If it works well, they'll be dangerous, but it's likely they could be eliminated early on.

A trend that was noted by many:

Human load only robots had a difficult time during Week 1. FLR figures to be a Week 2 testbed for human loading with notable teams like 173, 250, 424, 522, and 2609 collecting moon rocks solely from the Payload Specialist.

Some of these human loading teams will be among the best scoring machines at this event, but refilling could be a significant problem. If any of these teams load in autonomous they will be significantly more dangerous. 424, in particular, could find themselves in a similar role to 118 in DC, where they use a turreted power dumper to score their pre-loaded cells and then move empty cells afterwards. Fortunately for 424, 118 made the finals in DC (although 424 would need a similar style alliance if they wanted to match that success).

316 and 2053 have both built simple "gravity dumpers" that could be highly effective. Especially if the human loaders struggle, the ability of these teams to scoop off the ground may help set them apart from the crowd.

Sparx has four regional championship banners, two regional finalist trophies, and two appearances on Einstein since their rookie year in 2003. Not exactly a shabby resume. 1126 will be a force at FLR, and unless they run into a pair of top teams without a strong partner themselves, they should be bringing home a banner.

OREGON:
The Portland regional is young, but has a number of promising teams and well-designed machines. It's not a top tier event, and there will be teams that struggle, and as such the legitimate scorings machines will run out earlier in the draft than many other events. Expect second round picks to have to make defensive and non-scoring contributions, and for human players to play a very large role.

359 has a beautiful machine, and it should be one of the better shooters at the event. But the strategic choice to human load, as well as the shooter placement may make it hard for this Hawai'in team to win on the mainland. Proper strategy and a well-structured alliance would be a big advantage, but it'll be a tall order.

Two years ago, 1425 won a pair of regionals and seeded first on Galileo. Last year, however, they failed to make the eliminations at any of their events. Error Code has a swerve-driven, helical-loading, turreted-shooter (like many others), and appears to be primed to return to the eliminations. Whether they can win again will be a different story, and it will take some serious support for them to top some of the dumpers at this event.

488 has built quality machines over the past few years, but still hasn't won a regional. The X-Bots have a cloth hoppered dumper that should be able to do some serious damage to opponent's trailers. The regolith flooring should suit 488's style of play better than other games, but whether they can carry an alliance will be a different question.

753, 1318, and 1778 have power dumpers that should be in the mix. The skill of their drivers, ability to avoid mechanical problems, and human players will factor into their ultimate success. It's unlikely any of them bring home gold though.

Skunkworks has come a long way in their short history. 1983 won a regional in each of their first two seasons, and their robots keep getting better. With their power dumper and "skunkswerve," they look prepared to win another regional, but it's far from a guarantee.

BOSTON:
Beantown is poised to have one of the better events of week two. This regional should have a relatively large "middle class" of teams, with a small handful that stand out above the rest. This much parity will mean unique features, human players, and defense even more important (and could spell some less than exciting qualificaiton rounds).

Few teams in all of FIRST have had as much regional success as Quincy, and most have much larger reputations (they don't usually goto Championship, and currently aren't signed up this year). HYPER has been the regional finals eleven times in their history, including at least once every year since 2001. 69 has a shooter in 2009, and with the right strategy and driving could end up making the finals in Boston for the third time in four years.

61 made the finals in Boston and Connecticut last year, but couldn't win either. Their power dumper should be a sound competitor again in 2009, but it would take a strong partner for them to bring home any hardware.

From FIRST Champs to not making the elimination rounds in the course of one year is a pretty dramatic swing, but that's exactly what Gompei and the HERD did. 190 won it all in 2007, but didn't make the eliminations in NH or Archimedes in 2008. The team from Worcester has a much more traditional design this year, and despite it's "questionable" shape, it won't leave many questions unanswered on the field. They should be one of the best power dumpers in Boston, and anything short of the semi-finals would be shocking.

The Nutron mentors will warn you about the consequences of getting caught in the crossfire of their shooter, but we'll see if 125 can fair better than most of the shooters in week 1. The ceiling is high for this robot, but it will take proper strategy to be able to top some of the strong dumpers at this event.

126 couldn't escape the semi-finals at either regional they attended last year, but won the last time they came to Boston (2007). Gael Force looks solid again for Lunacy, and should be one of the top teams in Beantown. If they can get secondary scoring from their partners they should be able to advance to the finals.

MICHIGAN - KETTERING:
Week two has the second of the Michigan districts. A full group of 40 teams, including two rookies, take the field. 49, 314, 1322, 1506, 1783, 2586, and 2619 took the field last week in Traverse City, but only 1322, 2619 and 1783 made the eliminations (and all had QF exits). All of these teams are realistically in what's close to a "win or go home" scenario. They're going to need monster events to goto the State Championship. And given that there are more quality teams attending Kettering than there were in TC, it's a difficult proposition. Over-all this event has both the top level talent and depth, even with just 40 teams, to be one of the better events this season. 27, 33, 65, 68, 70, 245, 397, 494, 910, 1718, and 2337 should all be among the comeptitive teams at this event. While it doesn't stack up to the GLRs and WMRs of Michigan-past, Kettering should be fun.

More important than who wins this event is the question, will someone be able to push Truck Town Thunder on Regolith? 68 is never a team to get pushed around, but the regolith and rover wheels could mean trouble for a team reputed as much for their high-traction drive-trains as their scoring mechanisms. T^3 should be as much of a force defensively as they are offensively, even on Regolith and should start paving their way to the state championship.

The Bees are back, and look as good as ever. 33 hasn't won a regional since 2004 (although they won Curie in 2005), and has only one regional finals appearance in their last nine tries. These bees learned from the mistakes of 2006 and are fielding a quick-shooting, turreted, crabbing machine. With their shooter design, they'll be more than capable of hitting a close target (where most shooters have been the most effective) as well as quickly unloading lots of balls. This district might just be what they need to grab another gold.

RUSH's revolver will be a blast to watch, and if anyone can make a turreted shooter work, it's team 27. That being said, their reloading time between salvos and ball trajectory are going to be a disadvantage compared to the top competitors. Expect a solid outing, but it'll be hard for 27 to beat the top teams.

The Martian Twins will be ready to play, and seem to be inspired by the very dangerous twins of 2006. 494 and 70 will both be dangerous once again. They'll likely need aid, possibly from each other, if they want to reach the finals though.

The AdamBots haven't won a regional since their incredible season in 2005. But 245 has a power dumper that will be a major threat in Kettering. It doesn't dump as quickly as some of its peers, so it'll be tough to beat some of the very top teams. Still look for them to be a top 3 or 4 pick or a captain.

NEW YORK:
The State of New York will host two regional this weekend, Finger Lakes and New York City. 66 teams will compete on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the Javitt's center for what is the largest regional of the year. In a field this large it means the style of play will vary wildly, and that many qualifications will be stale. More importantly, expect only seven qualification matches if they maintain the standard set last week in the larger events. A few highly touted teams will rank low and a few weaker teams will be captains.

2753 not only competed last week, but won New Jersey. Not only did they win, they went undefeated. 13-0. Team Overdrive is trying to become the first rookie since 2056 (2007) to win two regionals. Given their tremendous performance in NJ, it's not out of the question. It's hard to win multiple events though, and it's always hard to control your fate in a field of 66 teams. If they have a strong partner, it'll be tough to knock them off. But if they can't find someone to provide secondary scoring for the eliminations, a pairing of other top teams could send them packing.

Robbe Extreme hasn't managed to recapture the glory of their 2005 bot that made it all the way to the finals on Einstein. 56 has built a more than capable power dumper in 2009, and if they are consistent, will likely be one of the top two or three teams at the event.

The G-House Pirates' twins resemble a certain pair of twins from 2006. The clearly Poof-inspired design will try to shoot their way into the eliminations with a turreted shooter and massive hopper. 354 and 2681 will need adept driving and strategy if they want to last past around 2:30 on Sunday though.

Stuypulse has one mean looking machine, and after reaching the semis here last year and the finals the year before, 694 wants gold. The big red power dumper will be on the short list of teams capable of winning it all here, and it'll take a pairing of top level teams to eliminate them. Something in the back of my mind tells me that they could pair with 2753 and take the eliminations by storm.

SAN DIEGO:
The smallest event of the weekend, SDC will be one of the more interesting events to watch. Depth will be a huge issue here, as the quality scoring machines, and quality machines in general, will thin out quickly during alliance selection. Even the top teams will be in some danger from well-structured alliances (especially if those alliances can play adept enough defense to remove the elite teams from the equation). Perhaps more interesting is who's not there, rather than who is.

330, 1717 and 294 have all been in the finals of the SD regional every year of it's existence, yet none are registered to attend it this year. The fact that San Diego and LA are back to back caused a lot of LA teams to pass on San Diego.

968 isn't only the biggest name competing in SD, but the biggest competing in week 2 period. RAWC has big expectations to live up to, and their robot certainly looks like it will be capable of it. They are clear cut favorites, and it'll take bad pairings, good defense, and wise strategy to bring them down. But questions remain:

Their two time Einstein reaching drive team has graduated (although both returning mentors, one to coach) and their main mentors, Travis Covington and Kirk Oden, graduated as well (from college that is), and since have moved to 254.

Unless they encounter major problems, 968 should still be bringing home a banner.

341 is venturing across the continent to compete in California. Miss Daisy's human loaded shooter will be able to score, and they'll look pretty good in this field, but it's unlikely they'll be able to shoulder the burden of carrying an alliance. They'll be a much bigger factor for other awards than those determined on the field.

The most interesting thing about the 1388 bot isn't there simple power dumper, but the flywheel they have mounted on the rear of their robot. If used effectivley, it should aid 1388 in not only avoiding being scored on, but pinning and scoring as well. They won't be able to single-handedly upset the top teams at this event, but they could go deep if they don't have to play them early on.

Miss Daisy isn't the only Daisy at this event, as the Holy Cows are letting their robot "Daisy May" loose. 1538's robot not only looks competitive, it looks stunning in bright, retina schorching white. Their simple power dumper will be the biggest threat to RAWC, but if either seed 1st, expect them to pair up and take it all.

[R.C.]

Loving the posts, man you never seem to let me down. SD prediction was what I was really looking forward to, we couldn't make it this year.

[Enigma's puzzle]

I must agree this looks to be a slower week for the "elite" teams.

I didnt realize the win or go home scenario at the second regional.

[GaryVoshol]

2771 Code Red is another QF team from Traverse City repeating at Kettering. If nothing else, they will help make it loud. Maybe they can pick up the Highest Rookie Seed for real this time. Roeper should give them a run for the money.

[fredliu168]

I'm predicting some of Canadia's "elite teams" 610/188 will make a presence in FLR.

[rees2001]

Great posts again. I like the press for 424 but I would put my hair on 1511 this year. I just have a feeling.

[DarkFlame145]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Similar to 2008, even with (hopefully) fewer field problems and a week of regionals under FIRST's belt, the quality of play in week 2 is likely to decline from week one. There are two fewer events, 109 fewer teams, and several less top tier teams out to play this weekend than last.
While depth will be a major concern at almost every event this weekend, there are still going to be some great teams to watch. Last week, six of the eight champions were #1 seeds, and both of the lower seeds had the best bots at their regionals in them (121 and 1625). Expect similar results again in week 2.

PREDICTIONS:

FINGER LAKES:
Rochester has increased in size since last year, but the competitive level won't be the same. The losses of 20, 65, 67, 68, 272, 365, and 768 will hurt both the depth and the upper level talent here. It isn't as though this regional will be devoid of good teams though, with several quality machines and veteran leadership venturing to upstate New York.

Losing "upper level talent" teams should prove to be a good thing for teams that haven't been as successful over the part few years. I'm sure that all the teams that aren't braving the upstate NY winter this year will be missed very much. I know seeing them made me think "It's the great mix of teams that makes FLR so much fun and awesome."

[swamp_child]

Ive seen 190's bot in person, and it based on how last week's matches played out, they should do really well. Its a swerve drive bot with an intake large enough for 3 balls at a time(supposedly) and they can unload their full 2 ball hopper in a few seconds.

[Jonathan Norris]

Originally Posted by fredliu168

I'm predicting some of Canadia's "elite teams" 610/188 will make a presence in FLR.

I would have to say Looking Forward overlooked a couple solid Canadian teams in FLR: 188, 610, 772, 1241, 2609 are all solid teams that will make noise in Rochester.

[Koko Ed]

Originally Posted by DarkFlame145

Losing "upper level talent" teams should prove to be a good thing for teams that haven't been as successful over the part few years. I'm sure that all the teams that aren't braving the upstate NY winter this year will be missed very much. I know seeing them made me think "It's the great mix of teams that makes FLR so much fun and awesome."

It's gonna be in the 40's this weekend. That's really nice for upstate NY this time of year.

[OZ_341]

"...... Miss Daisy's human loaded shooter ......."

Looking Forward:

Just to be clear for anyone scouting, we also, very effectively, pick up off the floor.
Thanks!

Al

[kborer22]

Nu-Hyper-Force v2?!?

[Andrew Bates]

Originally Posted by kborer22

Nu-Hyper-Force v2?!?

FTW all the way!!!

[AustinDpOwers89]

i'm pulling for 2046 in portland... altho they don't have me there this year to help them out kinda sad they weren't mentioned tho... i like the look of 1318's machine. depending on their driver skills and human player, i see them being a top ranked team.

[Tetraman]

Agreed that FLR isn't going to be a competition of the powerhouse teams...but all the mid-level teams like 191, 145, 174, 340, 772, 1405, 1450, 1511, 1559, 2228 and the countless others will all have similar strengths. FLR will be won though tactics and the battle rather then a high score. 1126 is one of those teams with an upper hand, but without an alliance to carry them above, someone else will eagerly take their place.