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| View Poll Results: Was this useful? | |||
| Yes, it was! It helped point out diamonds in the rough |
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109 | 70.32% |
| No, its numbers generally did not correspond to robot's actual on-field performance |
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46 | 29.68% |
| Voters: 155. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#61
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
It doesn't seem to matter how I redo the matrices, nor whether I use LU or QR decomposition, I keep getting these numbers and they don't match up with the OPRNet.exe data:
My Output Code:
Washington DC Regional 01. Team 2199 W:5 L:2 OPR:25.39 DPR:15.13 PMR:10.26 02. Team 2377 W:6 L:1 OPR:22.73 DPR:7.89 PMR:14.83 03. Team 0045 W:7 L:0 OPR:21.54 DPR:5.66 PMR:15.88 04. Team 0234 W:6 L:1 OPR:19.74 DPR:13.76 PMR:5.98 05. Team 0365 W:4 L:3 OPR:19.58 DPR:11.78 PMR:7.80 Code:
Solve complete. Pos Team OPR SAA PM 1 2199 44.74 26.5 18.24 2 365 35.45 13.81 21.63 3 45 34.37 -0.7267 35.09 4 2377 32.05 7.856 24.19 5 234 31.55 23.53 8.021 WARNING: Attachment has some gui bugs. It also creates temp files for every regional/year, so I'd recommend putting it in a folder on its own. It also requires Java 1.6 since it does some neat enumeration and comparator stuff. To run it, just double-click it. Last edited by JesseK : 08-03-2009 at 11:47. |
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#62
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Can you post your M matrix for the DC regional for us to compare?
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#63
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
M:
Code:
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 14 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 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0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 14 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 14 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 14 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 14 Code:
310 358 388 328 409 365 541 336 345 326 410 368 348 242 335 300 481 384 312 308 361 369 322 395 321 302 387 317 317 279 327 365 406 396 228 342 360 260 365 359 319 370 589 346 438 336 312 228 312 297 454 300 273 322 414 270 331 409 356 292 412 445 324 402 328 Code:
1915 272 2068 1370 7 401 2199 1900 2729 1111 1731 2819 1522 1885 1872 1123 45 1629 1748 53 768 1279 2964 176 2962 2963 181 2961 538 2912 611 2913 2914 614 1849 1699 339 615 623 346 620 3046 2377 1719 1712 1727 1418 2121 449 2537 234 587 709 2421 118 357 116 597 836 2900 1446 365 2911 122 1793 Last edited by JesseK : 08-03-2009 at 12:47. |
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#64
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
I also find it easier to work with the team list sorted from low to high. For instance, with your numbers, I had to sort, transpose, and sort again to match mine. Let us know when it's fixed! ![]() Last edited by Manoel : 08-03-2009 at 13:15. Reason: typo |
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#65
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
![]() Thanks for the find, it's fixed! Last edited by JesseK : 08-03-2009 at 13:35. |
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#66
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Here's the top 25 from Week 1 & 2:
Code:
01. Team 0071 W:7 L:0 OPR:63.55 DPR:13.69 PMR:49.86 02. Team 0968 W:9 L:0 OPR:52.85 DPR:12.82 PMR:40.03 03. Team 1625 W:6 L:2 OPR:48.82 DPR:13.99 PMR:34.83 04. Team 0694 W:5 L:1 OPR:48.05 DPR:17.20 PMR:30.85 05. Team 2199 W:5 L:2 OPR:44.74 DPR:26.50 PMR:18.24 06. Team 1622 W:8 L:2 OPR:44.21 DPR:10.39 PMR:33.82 07. Team 0188 W:6 L:2 OPR:43.56 DPR:23.64 PMR:19.92 08. Team 1114 W:7 L:1 OPR:43.18 DPR:11.25 PMR:31.93 09. Team 2753 W:7 L:0 OPR:43.03 DPR:8.07 PMR:34.96 10. Team 1155 W:6 L:1 OPR:41.84 DPR:7.39 PMR:34.45 11. Team 1923 W:4 L:3 OPR:41.15 DPR:16.71 PMR:24.44 12. Team 0111 W:6 L:2 OPR:41.13 DPR:15.06 PMR:26.07 13. Team 0245 W:10 L:2 OPR:40.52 DPR:3.37 PMR:37.15 14. Team 1806 W:7 L:0 OPR:39.87 DPR:9.12 PMR:30.75 15. Team 0040 W:7 L:2 OPR:39.74 DPR:11.28 PMR:28.46 16. Team 1507 W:6 L:0 OPR:39.63 DPR:17.30 PMR:22.33 17. Team 1823 W:6 L:1 OPR:38.78 DPR:5.14 PMR:33.64 18. Team 1218 W:6 L:1 OPR:38.57 DPR:8.18 PMR:30.40 19. Team 0121 W:7 L:1 OPR:38.44 DPR:2.03 PMR:36.41 20. Team 0025 W:5 L:2 OPR:37.95 DPR:7.24 PMR:30.70 21. Team 0395 W:4 L:2 OPR:37.21 DPR:16.10 PMR:21.11 22. Team 0085 W:9 L:3 OPR:37.08 DPR:6.80 PMR:30.28 23. Team 0835 W:5 L:2 OPR:36.79 DPR:5.48 PMR:31.31 24. Team 0175 W:6 L:2 OPR:36.37 DPR:22.71 PMR:13.67 25. Team 0056 W:6 L:1 OPR:36.36 DPR:14.28 PMR:22.08 There's still a couple of bugs, but I'm working on it. === updates === Now attempts to parse data from multiple sources until it gets valid data, in this order: 1.) local html file, 2.) usfirst.org, 3.) tba.net Buckeye data isn't up on USFIRST or TBA, sorry You now have the options to show only the regionals up to a given week You can now rank all teams against each other for the full season (will be fully tested in week 3 when several teams do their second regional) More to come; most of the methods and classes are setup for easy code reuse. |
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#67
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Hmm...not many of the top 25 listed are shooters?
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#68
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Being that these numbers are all based on qualification rounds only, I think even more noticable is that there aren't many of the top 25 who have won a regional. Sure, there are some noticable names, but out of the top 5 only 1625 even made it to the finals of a regional.
This just goes to show you that top OPR isn't everything when it comes to winning the big matches (though it definitely helps). And when running some extra stats, I just noticed that 2753 has completed 2 regionals but only has OPR data for 1 regional... hmm... that's the first thing to fix! The second thing is to refactor the gui and omi into two separate threadpools so it doesn't lock up when you push the 'print' button. |
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#69
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
Regardless of what it is sorting by this category results in 3 of the top 5 being regional winners and 5 of the top 7. Here are the top 25 by PMR: Code:
01. Team 0071 W:7 L:0 OPR:63.55 DPR:13.69 PMR:49.86 02. Team 0968 W:9 L:0 OPR:52.85 DPR:12.82 PMR:40.03 03. Team 0245 W:10 L:2 OPR:40.52 DPR:3.37 PMR:37.15 04. Team 0121 W:7 L:1 OPR:38.44 DPR:2.03 PMR:36.41 05. Team 0045 W:7 L:0 OPR:34.37 DPR:-0.73 PMR:35.09 06. Team 2753 W:7 L:0 OPR:43.03 DPR:8.07 PMR:34.96 07. Team 1625 W:6 L:2 OPR:48.82 DPR:13.99 PMR:34.83 08. Team 1155 W:6 L:1 OPR:41.84 DPR:7.39 PMR:34.45 09. Team 1939 W:6 L:1 OPR:36.11 DPR:1.92 PMR:34.19 10. Team 1622 W:8 L:2 OPR:44.21 DPR:10.39 PMR:33.82 11. Team 1823 W:6 L:1 OPR:38.78 DPR:5.14 PMR:33.64 12. Team 1114 W:7 L:1 OPR:43.18 DPR:11.25 PMR:31.93 13. Team 0835 W:5 L:2 OPR:36.79 DPR:5.48 PMR:31.31 14. Team 0694 W:5 L:1 OPR:48.05 DPR:17.20 PMR:30.85 15. Team 1806 W:7 L:0 OPR:39.87 DPR:9.12 PMR:30.75 16. Team 0025 W:5 L:2 OPR:37.95 DPR:7.24 PMR:30.70 17. Team 0155 W:6 L:1 OPR:34.30 DPR:3.86 PMR:30.44 18. Team 1218 W:6 L:1 OPR:38.57 DPR:8.18 PMR:30.40 19. Team 0085 W:9 L:3 OPR:37.08 DPR:6.80 PMR:30.28 20. Team 0040 W:7 L:2 OPR:39.74 DPR:11.28 PMR:28.46 21. Team 1126 W:5 L:3 OPR:29.37 DPR:1.21 PMR:28.16 22. Team 0217 W:7 L:2 OPR:31.74 DPR:3.85 PMR:27.89 23. Team 2811 W:4 L:3 OPR:33.03 DPR:5.58 PMR:27.46 24. Team 0102 W:4 L:2 OPR:32.59 DPR:5.26 PMR:27.33 25. Team 0020 W:7 L:1 OPR:34.83 DPR:7.52 PMR:27.31 |
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#70
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
The lack of correlation between OPR, DPR, and winning a regional is at first surprising. But if you step back and look at how several regionals have been won so far this year, teamwork and strategy seem to be the common theme.
I believe that in Lunacy, the strength of an alliance is not defined strictly by the sum of its parts. |
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#71
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
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#72
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
CCWM = Caclulated Contribution to Winning Margin aka PlusMinus Rating, i.e. different calculations to arrive at the same solution. I think you want a high OPR for a first round pick, then a high CCWM for the second round... that is, if you want a high-octane, excitingly offensive alliance (which is my preference). |
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#73
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
It ends up with a 2N x 2N matrix (for a regional with N teams) sum[team's scores] = weighted sum of OPRs of alliance members minus weighted sum of DPRs of opponents. At first I thought that it would be unsolvable (each equation has 6 unknowns, and you'd end up with 2N unknowns and only N equations), until today I had the fairly-obvious brainwave that each match would give you two equations (one OPRred - DPRblue = scorered for red, one OPRblue - DPRred = scoreblue for blue). This approach seems like it would be more predictive of robot performance than simply doing OPR and DPR separately*. I'm going to try to implement it tonight, but if someone wants to try it themselves and report back, that'd be great. *The problem with the current approach to OPR and DPR, especially in a game like lunacy, is that they assume that a alliance's score comes ENTIRELY from its teams' offensive powers, or ENTIRELY from its opponent's lack of mobility. This proposed new equation seems like it would balance the two, and hopefully give more accurate results. |
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#74
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
If we look at the system of equations to calculate OPR, it is A * OPR = B(opr) and the system of equations to calculate DPR is A * DPR = B(dpr) The way I solve for CCWM is A * CCWM = B(wm) = B(opr)-B(dpr) A is the same matrix for all 3 systems of equations. I put the winning margin into vector B which is the same as vector B for OPR minus vector B for DPR. Hence the results of CCWM and +/- (PMR) should be identical. Thanks for confirming it Jesse. I never tried it myself. Regards, Ed Law |
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#75
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Quote:
I referenced your work in my white paper. I didn't realize you are mentoring Team 2702 now. I still associated you with Team 1281 in my presentation. I will update it. I really like your insight/explanation how to interpret these rating numbers. I want to discuss with you about correlation between OPR and CCWM/PMR. I think we both agreed that it changes from year to year depending on the game. One way, as you suggest in your post, is to see whether the teams that were alliance captain or got picked and went to the elimination round have higher OPR rankings or higher CCWM/PMR rankings. This will tell us whether teams value pure offensive power or contribution to winning margin when they select teams. Perhaps we should exclude the alliance captains when we do this comparison. Another way to look at correlation is how "predictive" the two different ratings are to outcome of elimination round matches. I did a study of the prediction of match results using OPR and CCWM. Through the first two weeks including those events that have complete data published, in the elimination round, the prediction using CCWM is 59.5% and using OPR is slightly better at 63.6%. One reason the correlation is not that good is because there were a lot of close matches that could have gone either way. We should be careful not to draw conclusions from just one regional. Each of the two ratings correlate better for some regionals but not for others. Regards, Ed Law |
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