Galileo 2009

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Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
67	6.0	4	1	5.7	1	28	42	153
71	7.5	4	1	8.3	1	50	46	138
1195	13.6	11	5	10.9	1	63	11	83
971	14.0	11	2	12.2	1	63	8	82
40	14.8	12	4	11.6	1	52	8	75
716	15.7	13	13	12.4	1	68	10	64
1717	15.9	12.5	9	12.9	1	74	6	70
111	17.6	13	3	14.2	1	61	8	67
207	17.7	14.5	4	14.4	1	80	8	61
987	18.9	15	10	13.7	1	63	7	55
45	19.6	16	11	15.4	1	70	5	57
25	20.4	17	13	14.0	1	66	2	43
1923	21.4	19	4	15.0	1	63	6	52
179	21.8	19	18	15.1	1	78	2	42
704	21.9	19	15	14.6	1	75	3	36
870	22.9	18.5	8	16.1	1	77	3	39
744	23.2	19	16	15.8	1	76	4	41
151	25.7	23	32	16.2	1	85	1	28
1318	25.8	21.5	14	16.5	1	81	2	22
2741	25.8	22	17	16.5	1	73	4	28
1332	27.0	25	10	16.7	1	76	4	30
2348	27.6	27.5	16	16.5	2	76	0	27
1742	28.7	26.5	31	18.3	1	79	1	30
56	29.3	28	14	18.1	1	79	1	24
115	29.7	28	12	16.0	2	68	0	17
2775	31.1	29.5	29	16.1	2	76	0	15
20	31.5	30	44	18.4	1	84	2	23
1208	32.0	29.5	22	18.3	2	84	0	16
1250	32.7	31	26	19.7	1	80	1	22
1477	33.1	31	36	19.1	3	86	0	19
973	35.4	32	14	19.8	2	85	0	13
47	38.6	37	46	18.1	5	82	0	5
708	38.7	36	34	20.1	1	81	1	12
2844	39.1	38.5	39	18.4	3	80	0	9
1745	39.3	37	36	18.4	4	85	0	9
418	39.9	40	27	18.8	1	81	1	6
359	41.0	40.5	45	18.6	2	82	0	6
1941	41.9	40	24	19.8	4	85	0	6
435	42.2	41.5	52	18.9	2	82	0	9
2729	42.4	42.5	34	19.3	3	87	0	2
226	42.5	44	48	18.3	6	85	0	4
555	43.4	44	65	20.2	1	86	1	8
1261	46.1	46	68	19.9	7	85	0	1
2936	46.3	47.5	53	19.1	2	87	0	5
1902	46.6	46	34	19.7	3	87	0	4
2230	47.4	49.5	50	18.4	8	86	0	1
281	48.6	51	69	19.6	4	87	0	3
494	49.1	51.5	70	20.0	1	84	1	5
279	49.4	51	50	19.1	6	87	0	3
1872	49.5	52	57	19.0	6	87	0	3
2214	50.2	51	53	18.2	1	86	1	1
967	50.3	50.5	68	19.5	2	87	0	2
1124	51.2	52	57	17.7	3	86	0	4
1676	51.3	52.5	58	18.8	2	86	0	3
11	51.6	53.5	53	19.0	5	87	0	1
1540	53.0	54	43	17.9	4	87	0	3
65	53.0	55	54	18.3	6	86	0	3
168	53.8	55.5	52	19.6	6	87	0	1
3059	54.2	55	37	18.3	5	87	0	1
815	54.8	55	52	18.1	7	85	0	1
2638	55.9	56	54	19.3	6	87	0	1
303	56.0	57	57	18.0	8	86	0	2
1829	56.4	58	62	18.3	11	87	0	0
1551	56.6	59	69	17.4	8	87	0	1
932	57.5	59	72	18.3	11	87	0	0
1270	57.7	59	78	17.9	9	86	0	0
230	57.7	63	67	19.2	9	87	0	0
1662	59.1	62	73	18.3	7	87	0	1
461	60.0	64	78	19.1	8	87	0	1
2642	61.4	62	81	17.1	6	87	0	1
999	61.8	65	79	16.7	9	87	0	0
1646	62.3	66	66	17.3	11	87	0	0
1598	63.2	66.5	83	16.4	19	87	0	0
440	64.2	69	81	16.7	15	87	0	0
2910	65.0	71	82	16.7	19	86	0	0
1710	67.7	72	86	15.7	9	87	0	0
1601	69.5	73.5	81	14.8	12	87	0	0
1450	70.2	74	85	14.4	18	87	0	0
753	70.2	74	83	14.1	11	87	0	0
2579	70.6	75	81	14.8	12	87	0	0
2234	70.9	75	86	14.5	20	87	0	0
1772	71.9	75.5	85	13.8	11	87	0	0
1836	72.1	75	83	13.6	22	87	0	0
1058	72.5	76	84	13.6	10	87	0	0
1885	76.4	79	87	10.8	23	87	0	0
2550	77.8	82	87	10.4	40	87	0	0
203	80.2	84	87	8.2	44	87	0	0

I must say, I am not opposed to these predictions