Newton 09

[Joe Ross]

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 193 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
1625	6.3	4	1	7.5	1	48	40	155
121	7.4	5	1	7.7	1	47	46	131
1726	10.4	7	1	9.8	1	47	20	106
1507	12.6	9	3	12.6	1	69	11	96
2970	14.4	11	4	12.7	1	67	10	85
1701	17.6	14	3	13.6	1	78	7	56
234	18.5	14	5	15.3	1	65	7	60
16	21.8	17	7	16.2	1	76	4	47
1155	21.5	19	5	14.9	1	66	3	42
2377	22.4	19	5	15.8	1	76	2	44
102	21.2	17	7	16.1	1	67	3	49
191	21.9	19	2	14.8	1	64	2	43
364	22.6	19	31	15.5	1	67	2	40
1038	22.9	18	7	16.8	1	79	2	41
469	22.2	19	4	15.8	1	70	2	42
148	24.3	20	13	16.3	1	82	2	24
1732	25.4	22	19	16.1	1	68	1	27
135	24.2	22	30	15.2	1	77	6	31
1918	27.6	25	32	16.1	1	75	2	19
368	29.6	27	18	18.0	1	86	3	18
2344	28.7	27	6	17.3	1	86	3	26
1868	29.0	25	17	17.0	1	82	1	22
233	29.9	28	11	18.8	1	81	4	24
292	32.4	30	9	18.6	2	79	0	14
612	31.6	31	44	17.9	2	78	0	22
1714	33.4	31	22	17.9	3	85	0	11
852	32.5	30	8	19.2	1	87	1	17
360	31.2	27	51	19.2	1	78	2	22
85	30.9	28	25	18.3	3	84	0	15
126	30.4	29	22	16.4	1	77	1	14
122	35.9	34	43	18.9	1	84	1	13
1657	33.5	31	21	19.6	1	80	1	20
1629	33.8	32	32	19.2	2	86	0	17
88	37.8	35	19	20.8	2	86	0	15
846	35.1	34	30	18.7	1	83	1	13
365	36.7	34	14	20.6	2	83	0	12
768	37.9	36	35	17.4	2	79	0	7
33	36.9	36	32	19.2	1	81	2	11
1086	40.2	40	43	20.4	2	80	0	12
159	40.5	38	39	19.3	2	82	0	7
340	42.4	43	65	19.6	2	85	0	8
842	43.8	42	52	20.0	2	84	0	6
1350	43.9	45	46	18.9	2	82	0	4
3075	43.8	43	34	19.8	4	86	0	9
862	42.4	44	49	19.0	2	81	0	6
2890	44.1	46	55	19.9	2	85	0	9
2609	44.3	44	44	20.5	5	87	0	4
2866	46.0	47	34	19.1	6	87	0	4
177	46.6	51	53	20.7	6	84	0	3
2875	49.5	50	70	18.9	6	86	0	3
2283	51.7	53	68	18.0	10	83	0	0
2771	50.5	51	51	19.4	3	87	0	2
832	54.9	57	53	19.4	8	87	0	1
195	54.3	57	58	17.9	2	87	0	1
1138	54.3	57	61	17.9	12	87	0	0
578	53.4	56	56	18.0	6	86	0	1
1557	57.6	59	56	16.9	17	85	0	0
1730	53.9	55	38	20.0	6	86	0	2
228	56.3	58	71	18.7	1	87	1	2
1811	58.4	60	62	17.7	7	87	0	1
339	56.1	59	67	18.6	8	87	0	1
1516	57.2	59	55	17.8	10	87	0	0
1706	57.2	60	69	18.3	14	87	0	0
1098	56.8	58	72	19.1	7	87	0	1
358	59.3	61	70	18.5	7	87	0	1
2659	57.3	60	60	19.7	4	87	0	1
1569	60.1	62	73	16.8	12	85	0	0
980	58.5	60	66	17.7	11	87	0	0
2004	60.6	65	79	19.7	10	87	0	0
1511	60.2	64	58	18.4	8	86	0	1
1209	62.3	65	80	17.4	10	86	0	0
1458	61.9	67	56	17.6	12	87	0	0
2836	63.4	68	73	16.7	6	87	0	2
620	63.8	64	82	15.9	8	87	0	1
1506	67.3	72	75	16.2	25	87	0	0
2067	67.9	72	72	15.4	15	87	0	0
2702	67.5	72	81	15.6	11	87	0	0
2783	67.6	71	85	14.6	25	87	0	0
138	71.3	75	85	13.7	21	87	0	0
1547	69.4	73	83	14.0	16	87	0	0
1700	70.3	74	84	13.6	34	87	0	0
1311	70.4	74	74	13.7	25	87	0	0
1023	72.3	76	86	13.3	29	87	0	0
2996	73.2	76	84	12.0	22	87	0	0
2549	73.1	76	87	12.9	14	87	0	0
529	75.2	78	86	11.4	38	87	0	0
86	82.4	85	87	7.4	42	87	0	0

[Alex Cormier]

There is now 88 teams in Newton this year. Who is the extra team?

[TKM.368]

Originally Posted by Alex Cormier

There is now 88 teams in Newton this year. Who is the extra team?

Looks like 687 is now in. Welcome!

[Alex Cormier]

Originally Posted by TKM.368

Looks like 687 is now in. Welcome!

But... why and how?

[Mike Starke]

Newton just feels like home to me. 340 has been on Newton 5 times out of the last 6 years.
There is a lot of Newton pride here, lets make Archimedes, Curie and Galileo wish they were in our division! Let's have some non stop cheering and excitement!
NEWTON PRIDE!!!!




ISSAC!

[TKM.368]

Originally Posted by Alex Cormier

But... why and how?

Good question.

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator).

Thanks Joe! I don't suppose you intend to rerun the simulation with the addition of 687, will you?

Originally Posted by Mike Starke

ISSAC!

NEWTON!!!

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by TKM.368

Thanks Joe! I don't suppose you intend to rerun the simulation with the addition of 687, will you?

No promises. It takes about 24 hours to run a simulation (most of that is generating matches). I need to refactor the code to add another team, and I'm not sure if I'll have time to do that and run the simulation before the championship.

687's average OPR is similar to 33 and 768, so they should do similarly.

They won the engineering inspiration award at the Los Angeles Regional, which is how they qualified. Not sure how they added so late.

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by TKM.368

Thanks Joe! I don't suppose you intend to rerun the simulation with the addition of 687, will you?

Here you go:

Team   Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 Seed	Top 8
1625	5.7	3	1	6.4	1	43	41	160
121	6.7	4	1	7.6	1	47	41	145
1726	10.1	8	4	9.7	1	61	18	111
1507	12.0	8.5	4	11.6	1	78	13	100
2970	14.2	12	3	12.1	1	59	15	78
1701	18.5	14	10	14.4	1	66	7	59
234	19.6	15.5	15	14.6	1	82	6	45
2377	21.1	17	3	16.6	1	77	6	58
16	21.6	18	11	14.6	1	67	4	40
191	21.8	18.5	7	15.2	1	74	3	49
1038	21.9	19	12	16.0	1	80	5	39
364	22.4	16	15	16.9	1	69	6	43
1155	23.3	20	5	16.3	1	72	2	46
469	23.3	18	14	16.9	1	70	6	42
148	23.3	20	7	16.1	1	79	1	42
102	23.5	21	22	16.5	1	80	5	39
1918	25.6	21	16	17.3	1	71	3	32
2344	27.2	26	17	16.1	1	79	1	23
135	27.6	25	31	17.5	1	78	1	27
368	27.8	26	32	16.0	2	79	0	20
1732	28.5	25.5	12	18.6	1	80	4	28
233	28.9	27	27	17.1	3	74	0	26
1868	29.5	27.5	12	18.2	2	79	0	26
292	30.9	28.5	31	19.2	2	81	0	22
1714	31.9	29	23	17.6	1	82	2	14
1657	32.1	28.5	27	18.8	1	84	1	21
126	32.3	29.5	18	19.5	1	85	1	17
852	33.0	29	20	18.7	2	86	0	17
612	33.3	31.5	25	17.8	1	81	1	12
846	34.0	32.5	24	17.9	1	85	2	9
85	34.7	31	27	19.1	1	80	1	15
88	34.9	34	36	19.9	2	80	0	17
122	35.0	33	44	19.2	2	81	0	15
360	35.5	33	31	18.8	2	82	0	13
1629	35.9	34	46	17.6	2	86	0	6
33	36.4	35	48	19.2	2	88	0	13
768	36.7	34	49	18.6	2	81	0	9
365	37.6	36	28	19.8	1	86	2	12
687	39.4	38	30	19.2	4	86	0	10
1086	40.4	42	51	18.7	1	80	1	10
159	40.7	39	35	18.9	3	87	0	6
340	41.8	41	38	17.9	2	87	0	4
1350	43.0	43	44	19.6	5	85	0	4
3075	43.5	42	23	19.8	4	88	0	8
2866	44.4	46	20	19.8	2	86	0	12
862	44.7	43.5	38	19.8	6	86	0	4
842	45.0	46	66	20.0	3	86	0	6
2609	46.1	45	43	19.1	1	87	1	3
2890	48.1	50	55	19.0	4	84	0	3
2875	48.5	51	70	18.5	8	83	0	4
177	49.7	53	67	19.1	2	88	0	2
2283	50.2	52	43	21.1	3	87	0	6
2771	51.3	52	44	18.9	7	87	0	2
578	53.5	56.5	77	19.3	6	87	0	2
195	53.6	54.5	53	18.9	5	88	0	2
832	53.8	54.5	66	18.3	6	87	0	1
1138	55.1	56.5	47	18.5	3	88	0	2
1557	55.8	58	69	19.0	5	88	0	2
2659	56.7	59	55	18.7	5	87	0	2
228	56.9	58.5	59	18.0	10	87	0	0
1098	57.7	59	57	18.8	3	88	0	3
1730	58.5	61	69	18.8	9	87	0	0
1516	59.2	61.5	58	18.2	9	88	0	0
1706	59.2	61	86	19.2	3	88	0	4
358	59.2	61	68	18.3	9	87	0	0
1811	59.4	62	54	17.7	5	88	0	1
339	60.0	62	82	18.2	12	88	0	0
980	60.6	65.5	71	19.1	2	86	0	2
1569	60.6	66	80	18.8	3	88	0	3
1209	62.1	63.5	71	16.7	9	87	0	0
2004	62.2	65	81	16.8	15	87	0	0
1458	62.6	65	82	17.5	11	88	0	0
1511	63.2	69.5	72	17.9	11	88	0	0
2836	65.0	69	56	16.8	7	88	0	1
620	65.5	70	79	17.6	8	88	0	1
1506	66.2	71	74	16.6	16	88	0	0
2783	67.9	72	85	16.2	18	88	0	0
2702	67.9	72	85	15.6	14	88	0	0
2067	69.0	73	73	13.7	30	88	0	0
138	69.9	74	86	15.2	10	88	0	0
1311	70.3	74	74	14.9	21	88	0	0
1547	72.3	76	85	14.9	13	88	0	0
2996	73.0	77	87	12.8	29	88	0	0
1700	73.3	76	84	13.6	11	88	0	0
1023	74.7	78.5	87	13.4	19	88	0	0
2549	74.9	79	87	13.0	31	88	0	0
529	77.7	82	85	11.1	41	88	0	0
86	83.7	86.5	88	7.6	36	88	0	0

[gorrilla]

less then 1 day now

[flippy147852]

It's been a while so...

ISSAC!!!

[MadeAtMidnight]

....Newton!!

[MOE]

HELLOooooo from the North East


NEWTON !!!!

TYE DYE for ever oh yeah ???? OH YEAH !!!!
MOE and Team 88 TJ2 see all soooooon

[Dan 1038]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 193 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
1625	6.3	4	1	7.5	1	48	40	155
121	7.4	5	1	7.7	1	47	46	131
1726	10.4	7	1	9.8	1	47	20	106
1507	12.6	9	3	12.6	1	69	11	96
2970	14.4	11	4	12.7	1	67	10	85
1701	17.6	14	3	13.6	1	78	7	56
234	18.5	14	5	15.3	1	65	7	60
16	21.8	17	7	16.2	1	76	4	47
1155	21.5	19	5	14.9	1	66	3	42
2377	22.4	19	5	15.8	1	76	2	44
102	21.2	17	7	16.1	1	67	3	49
191	21.9	19	2	14.8	1	64	2	43
364	22.6	19	31	15.5	1	67	2	40
1038	22.9	18	7	16.8	1	79	2	41

First, I must say I am impressed at your analysis - neat way to look at the available data and extrapolate a result. Unfortunately, as the stats suggest, the analysis really doesn't mean anything. The standard deviations are too large to lead any credance to the results, as would be expected in an analysis with this many variables. Keep at it, if you can refine this it will be a very cool way to predict team's success!

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Dan 1038

First, I must say I am impressed at your analysis - neat way to look at the available data and extrapolate a result. Unfortunately, as the stats suggest, the analysis really doesn't mean anything. The standard deviations are too large to lead any credance to the results, as would be expected in an analysis with this many variables. Keep at it, if you can refine this it will be a very cool way to predict team's success!

It worked better last year because there was a much wider distribution of scores. This year, there's isn't as big of difference between the 3rd or 4th best robot in a division and the 20th. The standard deviations last year were about half of what they are this year.

The other thing this demonstrates is how only 7 seeding rounds isn't adequate.

The final factor is that this year it's much harder to separate a single robot's performance in to any single number. For example, your partner that pins another robot so you can score doesn't score anything itself, but certainly contributes points to the alliance. Last year's game was much more seperable, and in that case OPR correlated with our scouting very well (0.9). This year it's still decent, but not as good (0.6).

[Dan 1038]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

The final factor is that this year it's much harder to separate a single robot's performance in to any single number. For example, your partner that pins another robot so you can score doesn't score anything itself, but certainly contributes points to the alliance. Last year's game was much more seperable, and in that case OPR correlated with our scouting very well (0.9). This year it's still decent, but not as good (0.6).

Agreed, Last year was perfect for this type of analysis as there was no significant defense contribution, as Simbotics so blatantly showed all of us . We had the (mis?)fortune of being against them at both Midwest and the championships... This year has so many variables, it is about impossible to analyze individual robots using alliance stats. At Buckeye, I saw a number of defensive bots with no scoring ability score huge - they had human players off the basketball team! That is a key to the game this year which is kind of new, since the HPs can make or break a close match. It is also about impossible to show the effectiveness of HPs without dedicating scouts to watch the robot and another to watch the HP!