Newton 09

[Joe Ross]

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 193 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 193 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
1625	6.3	4	1	7.5	1	48	40	155
121	7.4	5	1	7.7	1	47	46	131
1726	10.4	7	1	9.8	1	47	20	106
1507	12.6	9	3	12.6	1	69	11	96
2970	14.4	11	4	12.7	1	67	10	85
1701	17.6	14	3	13.6	1	78	7	56
234	18.5	14	5	15.3	1	65	7	60
16	21.8	17	7	16.2	1	76	4	47
1155	21.5	19	5	14.9	1	66	3	42
2377	22.4	19	5	15.8	1	76	2	44
102	21.2	17	7	16.1	1	67	3	49
191	21.9	19	2	14.8	1	64	2	43
364	22.6	19	31	15.5	1	67	2	40
1038	22.9	18	7	16.8	1	79	2	41
469	22.2	19	4	15.8	1	70	2	42
148	24.3	20	13	16.3	1	82	2	24
1732	25.4	22	19	16.1	1	68	1	27
135	24.2	22	30	15.2	1	77	6	31
1918	27.6	25	32	16.1	1	75	2	19
368	29.6	27	18	18.0	1	86	3	18
2344	28.7	27	6	17.3	1	86	3	26
1868	29.0	25	17	17.0	1	82	1	22
233	29.9	28	11	18.8	1	81	4	24
292	32.4	30	9	18.6	2	79	0	14
612	31.6	31	44	17.9	2	78	0	22
1714	33.4	31	22	17.9	3	85	0	11
852	32.5	30	8	19.2	1	87	1	17
360	31.2	27	51	19.2	1	78	2	22
85	30.9	28	25	18.3	3	84	0	15
126	30.4	29	22	16.4	1	77	1	14
122	35.9	34	43	18.9	1	84	1	13
1657	33.5	31	21	19.6	1	80	1	20
1629	33.8	32	32	19.2	2	86	0	17
88	37.8	35	19	20.8	2	86	0	15
846	35.1	34	30	18.7	1	83	1	13
365	36.7	34	14	20.6	2	83	0	12
768	37.9	36	35	17.4	2	79	0	7
33	36.9	36	32	19.2	1	81	2	11
1086	40.2	40	43	20.4	2	80	0	12
159	40.5	38	39	19.3	2	82	0	7
340	42.4	43	65	19.6	2	85	0	8
842	43.8	42	52	20.0	2	84	0	6
1350	43.9	45	46	18.9	2	82	0	4
3075	43.8	43	34	19.8	4	86	0	9
862	42.4	44	49	19.0	2	81	0	6
2890	44.1	46	55	19.9	2	85	0	9
2609	44.3	44	44	20.5	5	87	0	4
2866	46.0	47	34	19.1	6	87	0	4
177	46.6	51	53	20.7	6	84	0	3
2875	49.5	50	70	18.9	6	86	0	3
2283	51.7	53	68	18.0	10	83	0	0
2771	50.5	51	51	19.4	3	87	0	2
832	54.9	57	53	19.4	8	87	0	1
195	54.3	57	58	17.9	2	87	0	1
1138	54.3	57	61	17.9	12	87	0	0
578	53.4	56	56	18.0	6	86	0	1
1557	57.6	59	56	16.9	17	85	0	0
1730	53.9	55	38	20.0	6	86	0	2
228	56.3	58	71	18.7	1	87	1	2
1811	58.4	60	62	17.7	7	87	0	1
339	56.1	59	67	18.6	8	87	0	1
1516	57.2	59	55	17.8	10	87	0	0
1706	57.2	60	69	18.3	14	87	0	0
1098	56.8	58	72	19.1	7	87	0	1
358	59.3	61	70	18.5	7	87	0	1
2659	57.3	60	60	19.7	4	87	0	1
1569	60.1	62	73	16.8	12	85	0	0
980	58.5	60	66	17.7	11	87	0	0
2004	60.6	65	79	19.7	10	87	0	0
1511	60.2	64	58	18.4	8	86	0	1
1209	62.3	65	80	17.4	10	86	0	0
1458	61.9	67	56	17.6	12	87	0	0
2836	63.4	68	73	16.7	6	87	0	2
620	63.8	64	82	15.9	8	87	0	1
1506	67.3	72	75	16.2	25	87	0	0
2067	67.9	72	72	15.4	15	87	0	0
2702	67.5	72	81	15.6	11	87	0	0
2783	67.6	71	85	14.6	25	87	0	0
138	71.3	75	85	13.7	21	87	0	0
1547	69.4	73	83	14.0	16	87	0	0
1700	70.3	74	84	13.6	34	87	0	0
1311	70.4	74	74	13.7	25	87	0	0
1023	72.3	76	86	13.3	29	87	0	0
2996	73.2	76	84	12.0	22	87	0	0
2549	73.1	76	87	12.9	14	87	0	0
529	75.2	78	86	11.4	38	87	0	0
86	82.4	85	87	7.4	42	87	0	0