Newton 09

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Dan 1038

First, I must say I am impressed at your analysis - neat way to look at the available data and extrapolate a result. Unfortunately, as the stats suggest, the analysis really doesn't mean anything. The standard deviations are too large to lead any credance to the results, as would be expected in an analysis with this many variables. Keep at it, if you can refine this it will be a very cool way to predict team's success!

It worked better last year because there was a much wider distribution of scores. This year, there's isn't as big of difference between the 3rd or 4th best robot in a division and the 20th. The standard deviations last year were about half of what they are this year.

The other thing this demonstrates is how only 7 seeding rounds isn't adequate.

The final factor is that this year it's much harder to separate a single robot's performance in to any single number. For example, your partner that pins another robot so you can score doesn't score anything itself, but certainly contributes points to the alliance. Last year's game was much more seperable, and in that case OPR correlated with our scouting very well (0.9). This year it's still decent, but not as good (0.6).