Archimedes 2009

[Greg Peshek]

Wow good stuff, while we all know you can't rely on numbers and statistics alone, it's a great representation of the field and seems to match up with my scouting thus far.

Quick question, how are the teams ordered on your list? Neither the mean, median, mode or any of the categories line up in a perfect order. Is there just a stat that isn't on there that's ordering them, or am I missing something? Thanks for posting this again.

[AcesPease]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did last year, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (all 102 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's average opr for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

When I went back and looked at last year's data, a team finished within 1 standard deviation of their average seed 60% of the time, and within 2 standard deviations 95% of the time. Only 3 teams seeded higher/lower then their min/max seed.

Team  Avg Seed	Median	Mode	StDev	Min	Max	#1 seed	Top 8
2056	5.3	3	1	6.5	1	46	56	163
2753	9.6	7	1	9.3	1	59	22	122
1218	9.9	6.5	1	9.7	1	78	25	117
1114	9.7	7	1	9.4	1	64	24	118
624	13.0	9	6	11.5	1	65	12	92
231	16.0	12	4	13.4	1	62	6	75
155	16.8	13.5	7	13.5	1	63	6	75
2587	18.8	15	15	14.1	1	66	6	43
343	16.9	14	9	13.1	1	78	6	63
118	19.2	15.5	11	14.9	1	79	4	54
222	21.0	17	4	15.4	1	69	2	43
201	18.3	15	8	14.0	1	66	4	65
125	18.3	13	8	14.8	1	75	5	69
1421	23.0	20	12	15.2	1	78	1	34
558	26.8	23	10	17.4	1	73	1	24
280	26.3	23	16	17.1	1	81	1	26
868	25.5	23	27	16.7	1	80	3	31
61	24.2	20	29	16.2	1	69	3	36
1649	27.5	24.5	10	17.3	2	79	0	21
1503	29.0	25	22	17.0	1	76	1	17
585	28.2	27	47	16.0	1	82	1	19
1712	28.8	26	18	18.6	2	80	0	31
503	31.4	30	36	18.4	1	78	2	22
3062	31.2	29.5	32	18.9	1	80	2	19
1561	33.9	32	44	18.5	2	75	0	15
604	34.6	31	48	20.8	1	84	1	17
488	32.8	30	31	19.5	1	80	1	18
692	34.5	32	19	19.2	1	78	1	12
180	35.3	33	34	19.8	2	80	0	16
2415	38.1	36.5	49	17.7	2	82	0	5
1341	40.1	40	29	18.8	2	87	0	9
2915	40.6	40.5	34	18.3	3	85	0	5
1807	40.1	41	42	19.7	2	79	0	7
2826	40.8	40	51	18.0	2	80	0	2
107	41.3	38.5	22	19.9	2	84	0	8
1538	41.8	43	48	17.6	2	84	0	3
533	42.0	42	48	19.4	4	85	0	5
48	41.7	40.5	18	18.9	2	84	0	3
548	42.1	43.5	63	19.9	1	87	1	10
1986	44.3	43.5	45	18.6	3	82	0	1
1746	44.7	41	35	20.0	1	84	1	2
665	42.6	42	24	20.3	3	84	0	7
2075	45.0	44	36	20.4	2	83	0	6
176	46.9	50	51	19.6	3	87	0	3
1266	45.8	47	67	20.2	7	85	0	3
3009	46.6	47	47	20.7	3	85	0	7
573	46.6	46.5	44	19.2	6	85	0	5
931	46.5	48	48	20.0	1	84	1	6
93	46.8	47	68	19.1	4	85	0	3
714	49.7	50	39	18.8	8	86	0	1
2220	49.8	50.5	60	19.1	3	87	0	2
1334	49.5	51	39	20.2	7	85	0	2
1002	51.6	53.5	70	19.0	8	87	0	2
1302	48.3	50	63	18.4	4	86	0	3
2543	52.0	53	52	19.5	6	86	0	2
2169	48.8	49.5	54	18.6	1	86	1	1
39	50.1	50.5	36	20.3	4	87	0	4
1535	50.6	52	71	18.9	9	85	0	0
1014	48.1	51	35	20.6	3	85	0	6
2354	47.6	50	39	20.4	3	87	0	3
2848	51.1	52	39	20.5	3	87	0	3
3091	51.4	53	66	19.8	3	87	0	3
1390	55.2	58.5	62	18.6	2	87	0	3
2813	55.2	56.5	36	18.7	5	87	0	1
2874	54.7	57	57	19.6	6	86	0	2
2470	57.5	62	69	20.1	8	87	0	1
2655	57.4	59	71	18.2	8	86	0	1
857	60.5	63	72	16.8	9	86	0	0
314	61.8	64.5	81	17.8	18	87	0	0
1592	58.4	61	72	20.0	3	87	0	3
1739	63.4	69	81	17.8	10	87	0	0
1555	64.4	67.5	81	15.7	16	87	0	0
433	65.6	70	70	15.9	13	87	0	0
386	65.5	69	84	16.3	11	87	0	0
2340	66.3	70.5	80	16.0	20	87	0	0
1743	64.2	68.5	72	16.5	17	87	0	0
3020	67.9	72	72	15.4	18	87	0	0
1987	68.3	73	85	15.5	11	87	0	0
1834	68.7	72.5	86	15.3	14	87	0	0
120	69.2	72	72	14.5	11	87	0	0
811	71.1	76	86	15.2	20	87	0	0
353	73.5	77	86	13.7	18	87	0	0
2070	74.3	77	87	12.6	36	87	0	0
2486	73.5	78	87	13.7	34	87	0	0
2779	76.1	81	87	12.2	23	87	0	0
1289	77.2	79.5	87	10.8	21	87	0	0
492	79.5	83	87	8.5	43	87	0	0

Interesting data. Looking at the deviations and the seeding ranges, once you get past the first 8 bots its a pretty open field. It will be fun to try to beat the odds

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Greg Peshek

Wow good stuff, while we all know you can't rely on numbers and statistics alone, it's a great representation of the field and seems to match up with my scouting thus far.

Quick question, how are the teams ordered on your list? Neither the mean, median, mode or any of the categories line up in a perfect order. Is there just a stat that isn't on there that's ordering them, or am I missing something? Thanks for posting this again.

It's ordered by the average OPR, from Ed Law's spreadsheet. Given enough iterations, I'd expect the average seed to be be the same order as OPR, but it looks like 200 wasn't enough. It takes about 24 hours to do 200 match schedules, so that's my practical limit.

[jspatz1]

For anyone shopping for Archimedes robot pictures, we have a collection going at this Picasa Album:
http://picasaweb.google.com/mrhartwi...eat=directlink

[PlatyPi Gunner]

That's last year's stuff right?

[rfolea]

Hey Joe,

Are you coming to ATL? Didn't see 330 on the list ...

- Rick Folea

[rfolea]

Originally Posted by TKM.368

Looks like your division might be unfortunately happening with one less bot...

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...425#post849425

We'll be there ... That accident happened between two of our regionals.

"otto" is rarin' to go ... (band-aides an all ..)

[Joe Ross]

I used each team's average OPR and the actual match schedule to predict each match and calculate the standings.

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	R Score	B Score
1	176	1986	3091	558	624	2848	60	85
2	492	1002	2169	180	2874	1266	41	62
3	93	201	2486	353	1390	1341	58	49
4	1739	1743	692	2587	222	1649	50	94
5	1712	39	573	2340	2655	1592	67	42
6	2813	2220	714	811	2470	503	54	51
7	1289	2075	1746	314	2415	488	47	63
8	1538	386	1834	1302	665	2779	45	46
9	48	2056	433	1421	1114	548	81	92
10	2753	2354	120	3062	3009	604	70	73
11	107	118	2070	1561	1218	1334	63	86
12	1503	533	1014	280	155	868	69	92
13	585	1535	931	343	1987	857	67	58
14	3020	125	2543	2826	1555	61	63	65
15	231	2915	1538	1807	558	201	82	85
16	93	2655	1739	1986	548	2470	49	58
17	3009	314	48	222	386	2486	56	50
18	1289	3091	2220	1218	665	1649	42	90
19	573	1834	3062	433	1743	353	57	32
20	488	714	931	2874	2587	120	64	60
21	125	1390	1302	533	1561	1266	68	69
22	2543	624	1592	2056	1503	1535	70	94
23	503	1746	604	343	3020	280	74	73
24	39	1987	492	1555	1114	176	33	73
25	180	2340	2753	1334	857	2075	78	54
26	2354	1807	61	1421	107	2779	71	60
27	1014	1712	118	2915	2848	2813	80	57
28	1002	155	2826	692	811	2070	76	40
29	2415	1341	231	868	2169	585	84	76
30	3062	2874	1218	125	1739	624	84	82
31	1538	48	176	573	604	2543	66	65
32	1555	3009	1334	1986	2587	433	52	66
33	533	120	314	1807	3091	503	46	68
34	343	118	1592	61	488	665	80	75
35	93	1421	692	857	1561	2220	76	59
36	2753	2848	1503	2070	1302	353	87	34
37	222	2779	2655	1114	1341	1014	54	82
38	1649	2813	2340	1002	107	1746	56	63
39	3020	548	1535	1266	1289	231	53	62
40	201	714	585	492	1712	2056	79	78
41	868	2354	558	386	39	180	78	56
42	2075	155	931	2486	2169	2915	75	48
43	2826	1390	2470	1987	280	1743	56	52
44	1834	2415	1421	811	343	120	65	51
45	2848	1649	604	2779	533	2874	72	44
46	433	118	125	314	1002	1535	77	52
47	2813	492	2655	3091	3009	61	34	67
48	1218	176	692	868	1712	2753	87	98
49	1334	1266	931	1746	3062	1592	60	62
50	1390	2587	1503	2220	548	558	78	70
51	39	811	2543	665	2915	1743	46	56
52	2169	2354	201	1986	3020	1014	70	51
53	2470	2340	624	1538	2415	2070	65	54
54	2486	280	1302	585	1555	1289	54	46
55	488	2056	1341	386	1807	155	96	69
56	93	180	231	222	1987	1834	81	53
57	2826	107	353	857	714	48	54	55
58	573	1114	1561	2075	503	1739	86	61
59	120	665	2848	201	1746	868	49	82
60	2587	811	2655	1266	118	1538	58	77
61	533	1218	3020	2340	585	2915	74	63
62	1555	604	1421	1014	1002	488	70	63
63	1649	61	1712	1834	1535	2470	85	45
64	1987	1807	353	1592	1986	2813	42	51
65	857	231	1114	155	3091	125	89	84
66	492	1743	48	343	2075	2354	37	73
67	1302	3062	2056	176	107	503	93	71
68	222	2169	1561	558	433	2826	78	65
69	2753	1289	714	39	624	93	65	76
70	692	1341	548	1334	2874	314	70	49
71	1390	2779	2415	931	3009	573	47	60
72	280	2070	1739	2543	386	2220	49	50
73	2486	180	343	1503	1218	1114	64	108
74	1538	1535	353	492	155	1421	50	68
75	558	1002	665	3020	48	2655	70	50
76	1987	1561	61	868	3062	2915	67	79
77	1341	1302	39	2587	604	2813	62	76
78	857	1555	503	2354	1649	2415	54	72
79	176	386	1743	93	120	118	45	63
80	180	280	1986	2056	931	692	75	92
81	1334	2486	488	573	2848	2470	50	54
82	125	585	2220	1746	1014	2753	79	81
83	624	2075	222	1390	1712	1807	90	68
84	1266	2340	314	2543	1834	714	47	48
85	1592	3091	548	2779	2070	2169	54	32
86	433	2874	811	1503	231	107	36	87
87	201	533	1289	3009	1739	2826	59	56
88	3062	2415	118	48	155	180	84	81
89	3020	1538	1561	120	39	2486	62	35
90	665	1114	1986	604	585	1390	81	71
91	1421	1712	558	1302	2543	1746	89	59
92	2070	125	503	1834	931	492	66	33
93	353	1555	2470	1218	2056	314	37	102
94	222	1002	573	714	2354	533	71	60
95	1739	343	1266	3091	1341	433	67	54
96	3009	548	107	1987	488	624	65	73
97	2169	1807	1743	1535	2848	2220	54	56
98	2779	1334	868	2826	93	2813	54	59
99	386	61	2587	2340	1014	231	74	67
100	1592	280	2753	811	201	1649	84	68
101	2915	2874	857	176	1289	2655	53	42
102	1503	2075	3062	692	125	1538	76	80

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	RS	MP
1	1114	7	0	0	7	14	64	108
2	3062	6	1	0	7	12	65.29	93
3	1218	6	1	0	7	12	62.57	108
4	201	6	1	0	7	12	61.86	85
5	118	6	1	0	7	12	61.57	84
6	1421	6	1	0	7	12	60.43	92
7	93	6	1	0	7	12	53.43	81
8	573	6	1	0	7	12	51	86
9	2056	5	2	0	7	10	68.71	102
10	624	5	2	0	7	10	66.29	90
11	868	5	2	0	7	10	65.43	98
12	2753	5	2	0	7	10	65.29	98
13	231	5	2	0	7	10	64.43	89
14	604	5	2	0	7	10	64	76
15	558	5	2	0	7	10	63.14	89
16	1712	5	2	0	7	10	62.29	98
17	1746	5	2	0	7	10	60.43	82
18	1503	5	2	0	7	10	59.86	108
19	2587	5	2	0	7	10	59.86	94
20	1561	5	2	0	7	10	59.71	86
21	714	5	2	0	7	10	59.29	79
22	61	5	2	0	7	10	58.71	85
23	2415	5	2	0	7	10	58.57	84
24	1592	5	2	0	7	10	55.57	84
25	2354	5	2	0	7	10	55.43	78
26	931	5	2	0	7	10	54.43	92
27	1266	5	2	0	7	10	54.43	77
28	665	5	2	0	7	10	54	90
29	1649	5	2	0	7	10	51.29	94
30	2848	5	2	0	7	10	49.71	87
31	155	4	3	0	7	8	63	92
32	692	4	3	0	7	8	62.29	92
33	488	4	3	0	7	8	61.29	96
34	1341	4	3	0	7	8	59	96
35	222	4	3	0	7	8	57.14	94
36	1986	4	3	0	7	8	57.14	81
37	548	4	3	0	7	8	57	92
38	2826	4	3	0	7	8	54.86	76
39	3009	4	3	0	7	8	53.43	73
40	1002	4	3	0	7	8	51.71	76
41	2813	4	3	0	7	8	50.86	76
42	2470	4	3	0	7	8	48.29	65
43	125	3	4	0	7	6	65	84
44	1014	3	4	0	7	6	62.86	82
45	280	3	4	0	7	6	61.71	92
46	180	3	4	0	7	6	60.57	81
47	1807	3	4	0	7	6	60.14	85
48	48	3	4	0	7	6	59.71	81
49	343	3	4	0	7	6	58.86	80
50	533	3	4	0	7	6	58	74
51	857	3	4	0	7	6	57.86	89
52	2915	3	4	0	7	6	57.86	82
53	2220	3	4	0	7	6	57.71	79
54	1538	3	4	0	7	6	57.14	82
55	2075	3	4	0	7	6	55.86	90
56	503	3	4	0	7	6	55.57	74
57	1302	3	4	0	7	6	55	93
58	1535	3	4	0	7	6	54.57	94
59	2874	3	4	0	7	6	50.57	84
60	3091	3	4	0	7	6	50.29	84
61	1555	3	4	0	7	6	49.71	73
62	314	3	4	0	7	6	46.86	102
63	1834	3	4	0	7	6	43.71	65
64	585	2	5	0	7	4	67.29	79
65	1390	2	5	0	7	4	60.71	78
66	107	2	5	0	7	4	57.86	87
67	176	2	5	0	7	4	57.57	87
68	2543	2	5	0	7	4	57	70
69	3020	2	5	0	7	4	55.43	74
70	2340	2	5	0	7	4	54.71	78
71	386	2	5	0	7	4	54.43	74
72	433	2	5	0	7	4	53.14	81
73	2169	2	5	0	7	4	52.43	78
74	1289	2	5	0	7	4	50.14	65
75	2486	2	5	0	7	4	48.86	64
76	39	2	5	0	7	4	48.43	76
77	1739	1	6	0	7	2	57.29	82
78	1334	1	6	0	7	2	54.57	86
79	1987	1	6	0	7	2	52.86	73
80	120	1	6	0	7	2	50.86	70
81	2779	1	6	0	7	2	48	60
82	1743	1	6	0	7	2	45.14	56
83	492	1	6	0	7	2	43.71	78
84	2070	1	6	0	7	2	43.57	66
85	811	0	7	0	7	0	50	68
86	2655	0	7	0	7	0	47	58
87	353	0	7	0	7	0	42.57	54

If you don't like the way your team did in the simulation, don't worry, OPR has proven to be only slightly better then flipping a coin this year.

[ehochstein]

Originally Posted by jspatz1

For anyone shopping for Archimedes robot pictures, we have a collection going at this Picasa Album:
http://picasaweb.google.com/mrhartwi...eat=directlink

That is an old picture of our robot, I don't have any new ones on hand but it's pretty upgraded

[astephen68]

Alliance selection is going on.

[tim_reiher]

Wow... a rookie (though not much of a surprise of one in 2753, to be honest) usurping 1114 and heading to einstein...

Remarkable!

[cziggy343]

team 343 would love to thank team 488 and team 118 for our absolutely awesome run in our division! it was truely a lot of fun to play with you guys. i just wish we could have gotten a little bit farther...

and congrads to teams 222, 2753, and 1218! it was a great battle, and ya'll did a great job!

[M.Wong]

Team 503 here sending out thanks to Team 1114 and 2056. It's been an honor to play side by side with some of the best teams in the world.

For myself personally, it was an amazing, to play with a team that I originally saw last year at the Midwest Regional. When I saw 1114 there, I knew that they would win Worlds.

I only hope, that we will be able to play along side 1114 and 2056 at IRI for it has been an honor and adventure playing with you.

[jgannon]

Congratulations to our good friends at 222 and 1218, as well as the spectacular rookie team 2753, on an amazing performance.

[monkeymel1003]

Congratulations teams 222, 1218, and 2753!!! I was really glad to see some teams that I knew/allianced with/went against over the years do so well! Great job guys!!!