Burt Rutan - Is Climate Change caused by Mankind?

[DonRotolo]

Burt Rutan, a famous engineer, has used his skills of data analysis to dispute the assertion that Global Warming Climate Change is caused by the activities of mankind. A PDF of his presentation is here.

It makes me want to check his data, 'cause if it's right, he's right.

[Chris is me]

Without watching, why would I listen to an engineer over a climatologist? An interesting argument that doesn't degenerate into ad hominem attacks is always refreshing regardless of view, though.

[DonRotolo]

He covers that in the first few slides.

[Chris is me]

Sorry about the hastiness, then. I'm just used to seeing "John Smith, exeprt apple farmer with a BA in political science, discusses global warming" and I put on my Skeptic Cap. Slide 15 seems a little misleading, (is that all of the greenhouse gases in the entire atmosphere? is the red dot all of the CO2 that has been or ever will be produced by humans? do all greenhouse gases have equal effect on the environment? what abuot methane?)

Is the data on Slide 17 precise enough to work with? I see long, straight lines. I was under the impression that precision was only available over the past 600,000 years or so.

I "know" Slide 21 is an accurate graph, but the data sample may be too small...

Slide 25. A good example of graph fraud. The most "famous" example of the ice core graph (The scissor lift in An Inconvenient Truth) featured no scale change, though...

Other than that, it's a very interesting report and I'm probably being over analytical...

[Mr. Pockets]

I found the article extremely interesting. My only complaint is that no bibliography was attached (I'm going to check the website for that.)

All in all though I think he made several very valid points. Excellent article.

Originally Posted by Chris is me

(...is the red dot all of the CO2 that has been or ever will be produced by humans?...)

Definitely not. Bear in mind that just like water vapor eventually comes down in the form of rain CO2 is constantly being used by plants for photosynthesis (and thus exchanged for oxygen).

[Mr. Pockets]

Much to my dismay there are no bibliographies listed on his website. Shame...I was rather interested is several of his graphs.

[MrForbes]

Thanks for the link Don, very interesting! It finally all makes sense....

[Adama]

If even a small fraction of this is true (and I suspect it is) then I can't see how we can claim to be causing global warming. Though the lack of a bibliography is odd.

[Mr. Pockets]

Really the only thing to make a bibliography for would be the charts, but yeah I found that slightly irritating. I'm actually sending this to several of my friends (if yahoo mail can fit it ) It might make them consider things slightly differently. He undeniably makes some good points.

[Ian Curtis]

I really like listening to Burt Rutan speak because he's so straightforward. My favorite quote is definitely: "The last one; getting hit with very-fast Big Rocks, is the only real threat to make us extinct."

Check out his TED talk as well. While it is not about climate change (it's about Virgin Galactic) it his pretty informative and very watchable.

Rutan's TED talk

[Andy Baker]

We (the FIRST community) should reach out to Burt Rutan. I believe that he attended the FIRST Championships in 1992, serving as a judge. Can anyone else confirm this?

Andy B.

[IKE]

What I like most about Rutan's presentation is that he calls out which group he belongs too and thus his own personal bias. This should be a requirement any time anyone is doing analysis that requires some interpretation. This highlights the dangers of confusing "independent" research with "neutral" or "un-biased" research/analysis.

Michael Crichton has a similar presentation about the use of fear as a political tool.
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I agree with Andy on the reaching out to Rutan. The guy has achieved some amazing engineering feats especially in the field of experimental aircraft.

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by Andy Baker

We (the FIRST community) should reach out to Burt Rutan.

I also agree, but I wouldn't know how to start. Suggestions anyone?

As for skepticism, MY read of the presentation is that we SHOULD be skeptical, even of Burt's charts. Since it was a live powerpoint presentation, the lack of bibliography is not unusual, but I do hope there is one somewhere. As I originally wrote, "It makes me want to check his data". That includes straight lines, etc.

Now, if we ASSUME he is 100% correct in stating that Man's activities are not the cause of Global Climate Change (and that is not necessarily a valid assumption!), I just want to point out that conserving energy and saving the environment and all the other Green stuff that's so popular is NOT necessarily a bad idea! We should be looking for alternative energy sources, ways of reducing pollution, and being kinder to our environment. We just need to avoid destroying the economy with unnecessary actions and mandates.

[EricH]

Try going through Scaled Composites, his company. I think they're located in Mojave, CA. They sponsor a team, too, FRC 1641 of Mojave, CA, so that team should probably do some of the reaching.

My reading is this: If the data is correct, then we can't do a whole lot about the carbon emissions, which are the main focus, even if we adopt economy-killers (and government-expanders). So why adopt those?

I also like that he actually states his bias. Everyone has one, but nobody has the guts to 1) admit that they have one and 2) tell you what it is. I may not agree with some of the data with respect to time (PM me for why, if you're interested), but taking the data at face value, if it's accurate, is a slap in the face for those that say global warming is caused by humans. (I'd also like to see some of his sources.)

[Mr. Pockets]

Originally Posted by Don Rotolo

I just want to point out that conserving energy and saving the environment and all the other Green stuff that's so popular is NOT necessarily a bad idea! We should be looking for alternative energy sources, ways of reducing pollution, and being kinder to our environment. We just need to avoid destroying the economy with unnecessary actions and mandates.

Agreed

I just consider it a shame that it seems to take a "crisis" (whether real or fabricated) to get people to actually care about such things. You'd think that the same result could have been achieved merely by promoting the positive benefits of doing the aforementioned actions, as opposed to shouting about the consequences of not doing them (anybody remember the old principle about a donkey, a carrot, and a stick?) A bit sad.

Originally Posted by EricH

I also like that he actually states his bias. Everyone has one, but nobody has the guts to 1) admit that they have one and 2) tell you what it is.

Actually, that alone made me more inclined to believe him.