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Unread 16-10-2009, 12:10
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AKA: Ed Barker
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Re: Predicting team startup growth

We don't have to be rocket scientists (we will leave that to Dave) to get our head around the basic principles and estimates of what we are doing. This is an exercise in estimation, not formal precision. We don't run the risk of crashing a spacecraft, just not getting kids inspired.

Jared just blew a big hole my acturarial assumption. We now have statistical proof that Utah makes more babies than Maine'rs. So I'm now sold on using more refined data but we should limit it to 9 to 18 year olds and don't worry about what is falling off those age fringes.

Actually just picking a single age range like 12 years old would probably work just as well as it should be proportionately the same and still would accurately explain differences between regions. Unless 11 year olds are fleeing Maine for Utah.

edit:

July 2010 projections, US Census, 14 to 17 year olds

California 2,152,803, 14 to 17 year old population
145 teams = 67 FRC teams / Million
145 teams / 2079 schools = 0.07 FRC teams / school

Michigan 575,071, 14 to 17 year old population
132 teams = 229 FRC teams / Million
132 teams / 752 schools = 0.18 FRC teams / school

Georgia 534,000, 14 to 17 year old population
28 teams = 52 FRC teams / Million
28 teams / 356 schools = 0.08 FRC teams / school

The state to state ratio (for these three) haven't significantly changes from the beginning of the exercise but take into account when you pull in Maine and Utah.

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Last edited by ebarker : 16-10-2009 at 12:24.
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