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Re: Predicting team startup growth
For SC,
The Minnesota data looks correct. It is geographically a really big state. Just a lot of smaller schools. South Carolina: 23 teams, 256 high schools, 239930 people 96 teams/M people 0.09 teams/high school SC used to be quite a backwater when I was little but have come a long way. Twice the team density of GA. They have several small towns including one that is maybe 10,000, but that is nothing like the kind of small they have out on the great plains with 9-man football. The main point about the SC thing is I know of several teams in towns that have only a few thousand people. The small town issue brings up another really important point. Lets go back to the graph again. ![]() For this exercise the X-axis is "rank of city" in size. So on the far left in the 1st position would be NYC, then Chicage, LA, etc. On the far right are the towns with the 9-man football teams. The Y-axis is the population. Integrate under the curve and you have the population. So the first few cities, the ones in brown have easily 1/4 of the total country population. The people in the yellow towns is in 'fly-over' country. It used to be the yellow towns have a LOT of difficulty in producing/delivering opportunity to its residents. What has changed in the past 15 years is the cost of communicating has fallen through the floor. The internet is here. The world has gotten flattened. You can mentor through the net. NO it isn't nearly has good as personal one-on-one mentoring but it vastly improves the ability for the on-site mentors and students to learn from those that know the ropes. One of the next challenges is to develop really good online e-learning resources and place it in a repository so the yellow country folks can get connected. (yellow country is really a metaphor for anyone isolated from resources, urban, surburban, or rural). BTW the new FIRST site does a lot better job of cataloging 'best practices'. We no longer have to give up the value that the yellow country provides. We have a way to get there. Changing discussion slightly: Let's say the Y-axis was dollars spent per team. Then the X-axis would simply be ranking, 1 to n, just like in the previous example for population vs. ranking. We will probably see something like a 3 region chart. The leftmost region dominated by FRC, central region by FTC/VEX, and the long tail by FLL. The area under the curve would be total dollars spent. Long term I'd bet the area under the curve for FTC/VEX will exceed all other categories even though FRC has the big impressive peak on the left. And the people that do this theoretical stuff will tell you the curve compresses to the left, the top taller, the tail longer, the curve more L shaped as more and more participants join at all levels. Ed 2010 census estimate data - 14 to 17 year old population group http://www.census.gov/population/pro...mmaryTabB1.xls high school information http://schooltree.org/high/ 2009 Lunacy team data http://usfirst.org/whatsgoingon.aspx |
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