Predictions Week 2: Offside

[LookingForward]

After a week of general dissatisfaction with the seeding system and copious penalties, the GDC has made one of the biggest post ship changes that they have in years. Team update number 16 quite drastically changes Breakaway, and the response has been positive and widespread. The seeding system has changed so that wins will now be rewarded. The update also addressed the intent of the 3" rule, and the many incidental 3" ball intrusion penalties from week 1 "should" be seriously reduced. Finally, the update will also hopefully end the stream of penalties that some teams received for hand induced goals, with unreturnable balls.

Originally Posted by thefro526

Striker: The Robot that plays in your scoring zone. They should be fast, agile, be able to take defense, and be well driven. They DO NOT have to have a kicker. They just need to be very efficient at getting the balls on the floor of the scoring zone into the goal.

Week 1 proved the value of "strikers" in eliminations and their inability to be successful without a partner to put the balls into their zone. Any team that can drive can be an effective striker but some are more effective than others as 34 proved at Peachtree. Ball control proved to be huge especially against heavy defense. The ability to actively hold the ball as opposed to letting it spin in front of the robot has shown to be more and more effective specifically against the fore mentioned defense.

Predictions:

Although the semantics of the seeding system have changed, the general idea remains the same; teams will be rewarded for high scoring, close matches. Week two should mark the beginning of an overall strategy change. Teams have seen that merely winning every match won’t cut it, and although many teams will not make this adjustment, expect those who do, to be playing into Saturday afternoon. Teams will shy away from defense unless it is necessary to ensure a win, and the deeper the regional, the less defense and more scoring we will see.

New York:
With no 56, no 2753, no 237 and only one champion returning from last year, New York will be the most shallow regional of the weekend. Scores will be low and matches will be plagued with mistakes until eliminations. Human player penalties will be common but there will be a few teams that stand out and make eliminations exciting.

694 is back for another run at New York, and after two years of being stuck in the semis, StuyPulse will make a strong push for the title. 694 will be among the few robots that can hang at NYC and their ability to control the balls will make them among the top scorers. The way StuyPulse goes over the bump may be their downfall. They could end up wasting precious seconds a match struggling to get over. It is unlikely that they will not be on the 1 or 2 alliance and with whom they align will decide if they manage to get their first title since 03.

375 has lost one of their main mentors this season, but they have always been a key player in New York and this year will be no different. With a bot that can go under the tunnel, The Robotic Plague should be one of the hardest to defend robots at the competition, and coupled with their ability to kick and score, they will be on the field late into Saturday. It would be hard to imagine 375 not making the finals and anything short of the semis would be a surprise.

2344 had a weak performance in week 1 and were eliminated in the quarter finals. If The Saunders Droid Factory plans on returning to the finals at New York, they will need to take advantage of their omni directional capabilities, and stop driving as if it were a tank drive robot. Saunders could be the best striker at New York, but driving will be the key to their success.

341 has won a regional every year for three years running and it looks like NYC will be the regional to keep that streak going. With what looks like an extremely effective ball magnet, the ability to score from every zone, and the ability to hang (especially among the few hangers at NY), Miss Daisy is the team to beat this weekend. 341 will be one of the few teams that will be able to take advantage of the new scoring system and they should be among the top seeded teams.

Arizona:
Perhaps the most interesting regional of week 2 will be the battle in the desert. With so many perennial powerhouses Arizona should have the most competitive and strategically intensive set of elimination rounds this weekend.

359 has already won a regional, and their effective and well driven robot seems to be on a path towards another win this weekend. Even in this field of powerhouses, 359 will be one of the best scorers. They were successful in another deep field last weekend, and going deep on Saturday will prove that the Hawaiian kids are among the nations elite this year.

330 pioneered the pseudo-swerve last year, and this year they are back with what looks to be another original Beach Bots creation. The Beach Bots continuing success can be attributed to their simple but effective designs, and although we will not see their signature single joint arm this season, expect Beach Bots to be acquiring, kicking, hanging and a formidable opponent.

1726, the team to coin the term “ball magnet” is going to put their magnet to the test this weekend, and with their variable strength kicker the N.E.R.D.S. will be able to score from anywhere with a great success rate. Their one weakness could be losing the ball when defended. In such a deep field it’s hard to see 1726 taking Arizona for the second year in a row.

The 2007 national champions are coming to Arizona and they will have one of the most effective kickers of the year. 987 is one of the biggest names on this field and with their ball magnet they should be among the top scorers.

39 has one of the most innovative drive trains of the season coupled with exceptional programming and a very powerful kicker. Even on such a strong field 39 has the potential to win their 4th consecutive Arizona championship.

WPI:
Even though WPI is only going to have 29 robots on the field this weekend, there are a lot of teams to look out for. WPI is not the deepest regional this week, but match by match WPI should be the most competitive regional with the most interesting qualification matches of the weekend.

230 had one of the strongest performances of the pre-season, and were the talk of the FIRST community even before their first regional. Their ability to score 1 ball in autonomous and put the other 2 in their scoring zone made them an offensive powerhouse, and their ability to play both the role of kicker and striker will make them a top scorer here; their ability to hang will be what puts them over the top. 230 should make it to the finals but the result will depend on their performance under defense, the factor that bested them in the preseason.

20 had a strong showing at GSR but they were eliminated quickly. If they plan to go further than they did last week, 20 will need to step up their elimination strategy and have better luck with pairings. They should be playing very late on Saturday.

Also attending: 190, 195, 571,716, and 1124

Chesapeake:
Chesapeake doesn’t have the deepest field, but with teams like 173, 768, 836, and 1058 it should be an interesting regional with some innovative designs.

88 had tremendous success in the pre-season and they should be the best striker on the field. Their mecanum ability will allow them to avoid the defense and score consistently.

1218 is coming off of an einstein appearance and they will be one of the big players on this shallow field.

365 is going to be the talk of this regional and they will draw the attention of many defenders. Luckily MOE has the ability to go under the tunnel and with a solid ball magnet they will be one of the few teams able to control the balls on the field. It would be surprising to see MOE go home with anything less than gold.

Wisconsin:
With a shallow field and a few strong teams the new seeding system will shine in Wisconsin. The ability to score will make the few teams that can score effectively, the highest ranked teams.

1714 has another great looking lexan robot. With a strong vacuum and a kicker with enough power to score from the middle effectively they will be among the top scorers this weekend, not to mention the best looking bot on the field.

141 didn't excel in Traverse City and they were eliminated early. None the less they will be among the few teams that can score this weekend and that makes them a serious contender to not only go to the semis but all the way to the finals.

111 will have their first long oriented robot in a very long time. Wildstang has one of the most interesting ball magnets so far but it will be interesting to see if they have difficulty lining up to the balls. 111 should absolutely dominate this field and their swerve drive will help them avoid the defense. Anything less than gold for the defending world champ would be a big upset.

Cass Tech:
Cass Tech is one of the shallowest district events of the season but there are a few elite teams that should make it an exciting regional that could potentially produce some high scores.

After going all the way to the finals and losing here last year, 469 will be looking for the win this year. The last time a game included a robot pulling itself up Las Guerrillas went all the way to Einstein and they will be looking for similar success. In such a shallow field 469 will be on the 1 or 2 alliance depending on seeding.

217 had a great weekend at FLR and looks for the same type of domination this weekend. Their ball magnet proved super effective even when they faced heavy defense. When Saturday is over The ThunderChickens should have another Cass Tech title to show off.

Ann Arbor:
Ann Arbor is the district to watch this week. With a bunch of solid teams who have already proved themselves week 1 in other districts, Ann Arbor should be a very competitive event.

66 went all the way to the finals at Traverse City and with no truly dominant team like 1918 here 66 has a solid chance at leaving with the title.

2619 finished as the second seed in Kettering and went to the finals and they even took a match from the heavy favored HOTfreezeMartian alliance. 2619 will be among the best scorers on this field and expect them to play late on Saturday.

247 is coming off of an Einstein trip with 68 who also happens to be attending this event. Da' Bears will be among the few teams able to control the balls with a ball magnet. They will also be able to go under the tunnel. These two things will make them hard to stop, but their omni wheels will make it easier for them to be pushed. Defense could be what keeps 247 from walking away champions.

Florida:
Florida is the deepest regional of week 2 with a whole slew of teams with Einstein ambitions. Florida will be the regional to watch for the most developing strategies, and the type of play to expect by week five and Atlanta.

103 missed out on another Trenton 25 win last week, and will be coming to Florida looking for the title. However, Florida is not Trenton, and although The Cyber Sonics will be in the top eight, the will need another good kicker and a solid striker to last in the eliminations.

118 strayed from their legendary vector drive this season but will be fielding a suspension drivetrain that we can expect to go flying over the bumps. Their ball magnet is effective and their kicker is powerful, but it will have to be at least 2 points better to make up for their lack of a hanger in a deep pool of hanging robots.

79 Should be one of the most interesting bots to watch this weekend or this year. With the ability for other teams to hang on them and a linear hanger, Florida is the perfect regional for the first 3 point hang. 79 acquires, kicks and rides the bump. Their only downfall could be in tipping over the bump with their hanger raising their center of gravity so high.

179 is the full package this year. They have a strong ball magnet, an accurate kicker and a side bar hanger. All of this plus a good striker will put The Children of the Swamp in serious contention for gold.

233 will be a major player at Florida this year if they manage to put the finishing touches on their bot on Thursday and do not miss any matches on Friday, because this could be devastating with the changes from update 16. Notwithstanding, expect to see Pink on the field late into Saturday.

1592 will be an important player this weekend, but faces stiff competition, especially without a hanger. Expect The Bionic Tigers to be in the top eight, and if they can take advantage of the snaking of alliance selections, they could find themselves with two other scorers going into Saturday.

1902 is another robot at Florida that can do everything, and do it well. SwampBacon, BaconKrunch, PinkBacon or RoboBacon could easily be the alliance to take home gold at Florida this year.


I would like to address some of the concerns that people raised after last week’s post. First, let me reiterate that I am in no way trying to replace Looking Forward. I am merely trying to fill in. Looking Forward provided great predictions, and is well respected throughout the FIRST community, and my only goal in these posts was to fill the gap this year. I enjoyed reading Looking Forward’s predictions just as much as the rest of you, and I hoped to continue to provide that this season.

I appreciate the offers I have received over pm for inside information on teams, but I will have to respectfully decline. Looking Forward has contacts from year to year because he makes predictions from year to year, and seeing as he/she will hopefully be back next year, I do not wish to dig in my heels.

I have also received requests to change my profile name or post as myself. In retrospect, it was confusing to call myself LookingForward, but I merely wanted to carry on the tradition, and I hope that now it is quite clear that I am in no way affiliated with the real Looking Forward. As for revealing my actually identity, the mystery is really half the fun; is it not?

I want to apologize for not measuring up to the real Looking Forward. I realize that I cannot compare to the real thing, and my only goal is to entertain the CD community.


Sincerely,
Surrogate Looking Forward.

[=Martin=Taylor=]

Um... I think 359 deserves at least a mention in Arizona.

I mean, after all they have already won a regional.

[JVN]

Originally Posted by LookingForward

I appreciate the offers I have received over pm for inside information on teams, but I will have to respectfully decline. Looking Forward has contacts from year to year because he makes predictions from year to year, and seeing as he/she will hopefully be back next year, I do not wish to dig in my heels.

So... you're turning down inside information...

Luckily, this is a simple game.

"This team will be very successful because they probably have a ball magnet, or maybe they don't... if they do and it works I bet it will be great. I'm also excited by the fact that they may have a hanger or some sort of kicking mechanism. I saw a picture of their drivetrain, so I know they have wheels. These wheels will roll them to victory..."



If someone is offering you tips... take the tips.
-John

[s_forbes]

Originally Posted by =Martin=Taylor=

Um... I think 359 deserves at least a mention in Arizona.

I mean, after all they have already won a regional.

I was about to mention the same thing. Coming into a week 2 regional as the only team (I think?) to have already attended another regional will be huge, especially if they picked the winning alliance there!

I also expect 842, 60, 399, 980, 1011, and 1828 to do well, among others.

[Chris is me]

I think you're missing a lot of the depth of WPI. By my completely subjective count, I'm going to say there will be ~8 machines at the event that perform at a very competitive rate. Doesn't sound like a lot until you remember there are 28 teams. That's 30% of the competition being awesome, comparable to a weak Atlanta field, but much smaller. This means that there will be anywhere from 12 to 15 qualification matches, and every team will interact with every other before eliminations. The top 8 here should be one of the "truest" top 8s of any FIRST event.

Such a tiny event with just the right number of good machines will make the serpentine VERY interesting. Who falls back to the 24th pick will determine how well the normally favored #1 alliance plays, and it's looking more and more like a low seed will take the event.

To add to what you have, 20 has been diligent with tuning and iteration over the past week, and I do think they will improve a lot between events, especially their swerve code.

Speaking of s...oh, I guess I shouldn't. 228's got a great kicker and drivetrain that should turn heads. Their wonderfully machined bot will do well depending on their partners, like every team at this really unique event.

You're right about 230 though. Shining at their scrimmage, the mecanum striker has the potential to blaze through eliminations if they get their hands on a respectable feeder robot. Are their scouts up to the task?

190's made some tough choices and unique design decisions this year. Expect their robots to turn heads, and whatever makes it on the field to be optimal for 2010 after a careful week 1 analysis.

2791 is run by a bunch of idiots who have no idea how to build a robot. I'd be surprised if it even moves.

(i was going to post this in the WPI thread but hey, why not here)


--------


Though I'm a little confused as to why you think a robot that did badly at a district event will make it to the Wisconsin finals. I mean, 141's certainly got the drive to improve, but there are more than 2 other good teams to challenge them!

[Cory]

Originally Posted by JVN

If someone is offering you tips... take the tips.
-John

Or just give up and quit.

[The Lucas]

Originally Posted by LookingForward

365 is going to be the talk of this regional and they will draw the attention of many defenders. Luckily MOE has the ability to go under the tunnel and with a solid ball magnet they will be one of the few teams able to control the balls on the field. It would be surprising to see MOE go home with anything less than gold.

Thanks for the kind words, but the only way we are going through the tunnel is if the drivers rip the cover, electrical panel and poor little camera off in the process . Hopefully, our roller is effective. If we take home gold, it will be our first regional win outside of Philly (we do have some silver though).

I'm watching out for the members of the top Alliances in DC: 1727 (Champs) 2377 (Finalists) and 768 (2nd overall pick). They all hang and 1727 & 2377 can score from midfield. I am also very interested to see what 1058 (BAE Champs), 272, and 1629 bring to the competition.

Originally Posted by JVN

If someone is offering you tips... take the tips.
-John

If you are going to take this seriously, use the tips (preferably in quotes tags with no name). Looking_Forward always used tips, hence the location FIRSTers All-Over. It doesn't entrench you, the tipsters will send tips to whoever is making predictions. Do you think Looking_Forward is still receiving tips?

[Akash Rastogi]

Unmentioned teams to look out for this week: 2337, 499, 1013, 399, 69, 801, 1557 (me thinks will be MVP at UCF), 2729, 228, 2791, 716, 2079, etc... many many others


Some of the regionals you're calling "shallow" makes me laugh. I would still suggest you take inside info.

Originally Posted by Chris is me

2791 is run by a bunch of idiots who have no idea how to build a robot. I'd be surprised if it even moves.

I saw 2791's bot, <sarc>what a bunch of nubmuffin designers. </sarc>

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by JVN

So... you're turning down inside information...

Luckily, this is a simple game.

"This team will be very successful because they probably have a ball magnet, or maybe they don't... if they do and it works I bet it will be great. I'm also excited by the fact that they may have a hanger or some sort of kicking mechanism. I saw a picture of their drivetrain, so I know they have wheels. These wheels will roll them to victory..."



If someone is offering you tips... take the tips.
-John

John is right.

The legitimate Looking Forward because they clearly had good information from a lot of tipsters. You appear to be guessing.... No way that will ever compare.

[JewishDan18]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

To add to what you have, 20 has been diligent with tuning and iteration over the past week, and I do think they will improve a lot between events, especially their swerve code.

I can attest to this, but the only change we made to the driving was wiring up a new gyro to replace the one that malfunctioned during eliminations (You should take a look at it drive when it isn't trying to drag a ball). Looking forward to heading out in a couple hours!

[Graham Donaldson]

I don't have anything to add to the predictions for the regionals this week, but I would like to say something in SLF's (surrogate looking forward) defense. Whether or not they're taking inside information from people, they're still the one writing the posts and making the significant effort to do so. I have no problem with people adding in more of their own information to the predictions afterwards in the thread - I'd just like to warn the community against phrasing their posts in a negative way.

SLF is making the effort to do this, and they don't have to. You're more than welcome to add your own commentary, in my opinion - just make sure you don't put them down in the process.

[/PSA]

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by Graham Donaldson

I don't have anything to add to the predictions for the regionals this week, but I would like to say something in SLF's (surrogate looking forward) defense. Whether or not they're taking inside information from people, they're still the one writing the posts and making the significant effort to do so. I have no problem with people adding in more of their own information to the predictions afterwards in the thread - I'd just like to warn the community against phrasing their posts in a negative way.

Alright. I made an alt account JohnVNeun the other day. I don't know as much about engineering as this other guy, but he doesn't post more than once or twice a day, so whether or not I know anything, I'm still the one writing posts and making the significant effort to do so. People should know by now I'm not the same person, nor phrase posts against me in a negative way

[sportzkrazzy]

Not bad as far as Florida goes. Other teams to look out for their are 180, 801, 1649, 744, and 1251

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Graham Donaldson

I don't have anything to add to the predictions for the regionals this week, but I would like to say something in SLF's (surrogate looking forward) defense. Whether or not they're taking inside information from people, they're still the one writing the posts and making the significant effort to do so. I have no problem with people adding in more of their own information to the predictions afterwards in the thread - I'd just like to warn the community against phrasing their posts in a negative way.

SLF is making the effort to do this, and they don't have to. You're more than welcome to add your own commentary, in my opinion - just make sure you don't put them down in the process.

[/PSA]

Have you ever seen Jurassic Park 2?

Don't let re-do's spoil how great the original was.

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by sportzkrazzy

Not bad as far as Florida goes. Other teams to look out for their are 180, 801, 1649, 744, and 1251

1251's robot this year is very impressive, I only hope they work out some small bugs tomorrow and show what they can really do. You guys will love the hanger.