Predictions Championship 2010: Shootout in the Georgia Dome

[Looking Forward]

More than 4000 matches ago and three months ago, Breakaway was unveiled. Now, everything will be settled over the course of three days, one last time in the Georgia Dome. Three teams are as few as twenty matches away from being crowed the 2010 FIRST Robotics Champions.

The ante has been upped; it’s time to throw in all the chips. Welcome to where legends are born.
Welcome to the Championship.


And now for a breakdown stolen shamelessly from 1114’s spreadsheet.



The divisions are by no means perfectly balanced, but it’s within a reasonable level. Archimedes is clearly the deepest field, one of the deepest fields of all time (rivaling 2005 Archimedes, 2006 Newton, and 2008 Galileo). But don’t let that mislead you into thinking that Archimedes is a guaranteed favorite on Einstein or that any of the other divisions won’t be capable of winning it all. Each division is fully capable of piecing together an elite alliance with the ability to take it all. And inversely, each division could have the powerhouses split up or upset in such a fashion that the alliance that reaching Einstein is outclassed by their opponents and meets a swift demise.
Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a layout of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it all together yet, but have some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.

Each division will play out differently; with different alliance selection and game play strategies. This will obviously impact the alliances sent to Einstein and the style of play on the field. Archimedes’ incredible depth and skill will mean minute differences between bots may often be the deciding factor, and advantages such as hanging and autonomous scoring will play very large roles. With the amount of good mid-field robots, look for the offensive zone teams who can outclass, outlast, and outmaneuver their defenders (who will often be trying to clear balls) to be huge difference makers. Curie is a little thinner up top, but is still rich in midfield and far-zone specialists, including a crop of ball-deflectors (and not only 469). They’ll be a little more separation of the top from the rest in Curie, and expect some more heavily defensive tactics against the cream of the crop teams. This division could well be decided by the alliance selections, even more than other divisions. Galileo has a fair bit of depth at the top, but a large number of deadweight teams towards the bottom, which will make for some varied qualification matches. Hanging will be a bit more of a premium on this field. With the exception of a handful of teams, matches will likely be a bit slower tempo on Galileo, with emphasis on teams who can transition from the neutral to the offensive zone (or who can score consistently from the middle). In terms of depth and talent breakdown, Newton is comparable to Curie in many ways. The elimination game play will likely have a little more focus on both ends of the field, rather than thee or four robot tussles in the middle, than other divisions.

The Looking Forward team has put together a Top 25 poll, similar to the ones done in NCAA sports. Seventeen ballots were collected from some of the most respected minds in FRC, and were tabulated to produce an aggregate top 25. Ballots were sent to individuals all around North America to attempt to avoid any regional biases. Just like in NCAA sports polls, a first place vote grants a team 25 points, a 2nd place grants 24 points… and a 25th place vote grants 1 point.

The format is as follows:

#Rank - Team, points (1st place votes) high rank-low rank.

So if team 9999 ranked 3rd with 300 points, 3 1st place votes, had a high rank of 1 and a low rank of 16, theirs would read "#3 - 9999, 300 (3) 1-16."

Without further delay, the results:
#1 - 1114, 404 (4) 1-5
The Simbots are excellent in every aspect of Breakaway, and dominated all three events they attended. Their alliances haven't lost a match and they have three regional victories already in hand, and their sights are firmly aimed at adding another trip to Einstein.
#2 - 469, 402 (11) 1-9
Las Guerillas have redefined many of the ways Breakaway is being played, particularly in Michigan. They are in a class of their own in the ball deflector/looper scheme, and took home gold at all three events they attended despite a massive target on their backs.
#3 - 67, 380 (1) 1-10
HOT is effective and efficient, and won two districts and reached the finals at MSC because of it. They can play all three zones well and their hanging is both quick and can work after the buzzer sounds. Combine that with three trips to Einstein since 2005 (including a 2009 World Championship), and you know this team has the experience and skill to be a real threat.
#4 - 25, 352, 3-11
Raider Robotix is bringing up memories of their 2006 robot by winning New Jersey and Vegas as the #1 seed at both events. Their highly powerful vacuum based ball collector helps them get at balls that few other robots can acquire quickly, which gives them a distinct advantage over many other teams.
#5 - 217, 344 (1) 1-9
The Thunderchickens complimented the three events they won last year with three more this year, and nearly tacked on a fourth at MSC. Effective, experienced, and versatile; 217 will be tough to handle.
#6 - 254, 334, 3-23
The Poofs became the first team to reach 20 regional wins, capturing gold in San Jose and Las Vegas. Lightning fast in all aspects of the game, 254 is as dangerous as anyone. Their aim to reach Einstein for the first time since 2005.
#7 - 148, 323 , 3-9
The Robowranglers captured golds in both Texas events to back up their build season hype. The twin of the Thunderchickens, a lower level of competition and some troubles in the Lone Star finals likely led to a lower ranking, but their aspirations are equally high.
#8 - 33, 249, 6-unranked
The Killer bees ended up with two district silvers and a semi-final exit in MSC, but that's what happens when you face against the caliber opponents they ran into during the eliminations. 33 is a very capable player from the mid and far zones and has a reliable and effective hanging mechanism.
#9 - 330, 233, 6-unranked
The Beachbots are simple, but driven incredible effectively and notched up two more regional victories to their storied legacy.
#10 - 2056, 216, 3-unranked
They have yet to lose a regional they attended, but never survived the semi-finals at championship. They dominated the offensive zone in front of 1114 at both Canadian events, and look to carry their success into Atlanta.
#11 - 971, 210, 6-unranked
They won it all last year, and after a highly successful event a regional win at SVR, they're looking to pick up right where they left off in Atlanta.
#12 - 16, 198, 5-unranked
The Bomb Squad continued their resurgence this year with two more trips to regional finals, winning in Midwest, and are looking to take another trip to Einstein.
#13 - 71, 142, 10-unranked
Team Hammond's bot is oozing with potential, and despite winning in North Star, hasn't reached it yet. They're quick and efficient in both the front zone and hanging, and they're flexible enough to play other areas as well.
#14 - 1918, 135, 2-unranked
They played well enough to capture the #1 seed at MSC over the likes of 67, 217, and 469. Couple that with the eventual gold there, a gold in TC, and a silver in West Michigan and 1918 is poised to try and go even further in Atlanta than they did last year.
T-#15 - 359, 122, 7-unranked
The Hawaiin kids have their best robot ever, and won three events because of it. Highly skilled in the offensive zone, the hanger they debuted in Hawaii will only help their stock in Atlanta.
T-#15 - 1717, 122, 5-unranked
D'Penguineers notched a gold and a silver to their belts, both times as the first selection at their events. They're quick end-game and versatility make them very dangerous.
#17 - 188, 104, 7-unranked
Blizzard was unable to win in the finals at either FLR or GTR, but have a very effective long range scoring machine.
#18 - 1718, 94, 4-unranked
The Fighting Pi weren't able to perform as well in the eliminations as they did in qualification, and only advanced past the semis once in three events. The potential for greatness is there, though.
#19 - 1625, 93, 13-unranked
Winnovation is another team that hasn't maximized their potential yet, but aim to do so in Atlanta. Atlanta hasn't been kind to them in the past, though.
#20 - 910, 92, 11-unranked
Foley Freeze have a very effective home zone scoring machine and captured a gold and silver at their districts, and reached the semis at MSC.
#21 - 111, 85, 12-unranked
Wildstang didn't manage to even reach the finals at either of their events this year, but are a very effective ranged kicker with great maneuverability. The potential for success is definitely there.
#22 - 1732, 80, 11-unranked
1732 grabbed two golds this year at Midwest and Wisconsin. They've got a flexible and consistent machine capable of playing in all three zones.
#23 - 27, 78, 8-unranked
RUSH has an effective ranged kicker and hanging mechanism, but weren't able to get better than silver in 2010.
#24 - 987, 76, 11-unranked
The High Rollers may be the best team not attending Championship, as they captained the #2 alliances to the finals in both Arizona and Las Vegas.
T - #25 - 341, 74, 11-unranked
Daisy has the best robot in their history, winning as the #1 seed in both NYC and Philadelphia. They have an effective autonomous that can score from the far zone and they're capable of playing from any of the three zones.
T - #25 - 968, 74, 8-unranked
RAWC weren't able to win this year, and they didn't look as effective or confident as their twin, 254. But they're always successful in Atlanta, and the potential is there.
Others receiving votes:
1676-52, 1986-34, 45-31, 78-25, 294-24, 201-21, 383-18, 230-18, 233-17, 179-16, 118-15, 20-15, 973-15, 1714-14, 1519-14, 51-14, 234-13, 1501-13, 1902-12, 177-12, 103-12, 2834-11, 525-9, 40-9, 365-8,368-8, 2016-8, 1727-7, 2619-7, 175-6, 2337-6, 1208-4, 88-4, 1124-4, 1305-4, 573-3, 1511-2, 1086-1, 343-1, 3280-1, 79-1

469 obviously received a commanding lead in #1 votes, but the handful of voters who questioned their strategy or effectiveness were enough for 1114 (who always ranked in the top 5) to overcome the Gorillas for the #1 ranking. Only seven teams received a vote on all seventeen ballots, showing both the parity of teams this year, and the chaos created by a lack of easily available video. Michigan has the most teams of any state in the poll, with seven. Curie, Galileo, and Newton each have five of the top 25, the same amount as Archimedes has in the top ten alone. Archimedes has nine teams total in the top 25.

Watch for the division predictions tomorrow.

[whytheheckme]

Looking Forward is BACK!!!!!

[Chris Hibner]

This is AWESOME. I was really, truly excited to read the top-25. I'm now heading to fire up some Mastodon so I don't feel like such a geek.

[ExTexan]

I'm now heading to fire up some Mastodon so I don't feel like such a geek.

Funny!....However after reading every word of the post (even how many votes 51 got!) I think you need to go deeper....Stevie Ray Vaughan, Leon Russell.

[Chris is me]

Glad to have you back.

I love the ranking and analysis. I think the list overrates some teams and underrates others, but that's the nature of the beast with prediction; no one agrees on it. Can't wait for detailed division analysis.

Thanks!

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Chris Hibner

I'm now heading to fire up some Mastodon so I don't feel like such a geek.

But Chris, Mastodon is pretty geeky in terms of metal.

[rulesall2]

Very interesting list. Clearly the ones receiving votes but weren't ranked didn't receive as much attention in the national spotlight however they were well known in their own respective regions and can still do some damage. Don't be surprised if one of the teams in small print on the bottom makes Einstein.


-Jack

[Jazonk]

All I can say is that I'm itching for what they have to say in the division predictions tomorrow!

[V_Chip]

Glad you're back.

Thank you for your predictions.

Your work does not go unappreciated.

[BGiraud]

Originally Posted by rulesall2

Don't be surprised if one of the teams in small print on the bottom makes Einstein.


-Jack

Yep....I can think of one.

Missing the top 25 by 1. WOW that hurts.

Good luck everyone. Keep it fun.

[Norman J]

Thanks LF. Was so disappointed when you guys said you wouldn't be around this year, but this is a amazing as it was before, if not more. Honored to be #8 of so many experienced FIRST-ers. Hope to live up to the expectations!

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

T - #25 - 968, 74, 8-unranked
RAWC weren't able to win this year, and they didn't look as effective or confident as their twin, 254. But they're always successful in Atlanta, and the potential is there.

Interesting fact, 2004 was the only year 968 went to Atlanta and didn't see Einstein.

[Wayne TenBrink]

Originally Posted by Norman J

Thanks LF. Was so disappointed when you guys said you wouldn't be around this year, but this is a amazing as it was before, if not more. Honored to be #8 of so many experienced FIRST-ers. Hope to live up to the expectations!

The Bees would probably have won almost any other event in the country had they not been up against the likes of 67, 469, & 217 all the time. Definitely the best team in the country without a win. Good job seeing that and putting them where they are on this list.

[Jamie Kalb]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

The format is as follows:

So if team 9999 ranked 3rd with 300 points, 3 1st place votes, had a high rank of 1 and a low rank of 16, theirs would read "#3 - 9999, 300 (3) 1-16."

Hey, I wish 9999 was ranked 3rd. That's our practice robot. When team 3129 registered over last summer, we weren't given our number immediately. We were given 9999 as a temporary number. We received our real number just in time for CalGames (with less than a week to spare). Our practice robot's still set up as 9999.

Thanks so much for the hard work you do to make this analysis and predictions happen, LF! This made my day. Now I can't wait for the divisional predictions!

[PaW]

Will 2010 be the year that Curie finally produces a Champion?

"Looking forward" to finding out!