The Future of FRC Teams....

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by fuzzwaz

After a few years of FIRST robotics I really started thinking about the ways "dominant" teams survive from year to year. Why is it that some teams that have the reputation of being so good stay so good when new generations take over the spots of the old. There are a lot of answers to that question. People have told me that it was the mentors, the work place, and even the community support that keeps teams going. I however looked at sports to see if I could find the answer.

-Sports teams are similar to robotics teams right? You have coaches and a community that will stick behind you no matter what. So is a robotics team like a sports team? Can we call HOT 67 the New Orleans Saints of the FRC? A lot of people have told me that we can.

- So what does this mean? If robotics teams can be related to sports then how can we have teams that are always “dominant”? What happened to the Steelers this year in football? Why do the Pistons keep going from amazing to pretty bad (From MI, I can say that!). If we compare the HOT to the Patriots, will we start seeing a weaker HOT team? So does that mean that for the most part, robotics teams will change just like sports?

-Maybe a few years from now our younger generations will not speak of the HOTs, Chickens, Simbotics, of the FRC but some new teams that are the “new dominant”? What happens to the old ones? Do they go back and rebuild until they can finally reach their glory once again? Or maybe this sports stuff just doesn’t relate to robotics. Maybe 20 years from now these same strong teams will stay strong. What do you guys think? How will teams change over the years? If you think teams will get weaker, which ones and why? If you see some teams that are really starting to shine, tell me who they are and why you think people will be talking about them a few years down the road. I want to hear what you guys think!

I guess I'll take a whack at this. FRC teams require passionate students, mentors, and a lot of community support. Mentors rarely leave, you get some that jump around and it does damage the team but by and large the core group stays. These mentors are good at getting students to be passionate and that is why they are successful year in and out.

FRC Teams do move in cycles. Every team has their off years, HOT in '06 comes to mind.

Will we be talking about new dominant teams? YES! Back when I started Beatty was king. Powerhouses: 33, 47, 65, 111, 71, 45, 494 (This isn't a comprehensive list just the ones off the top of my head). 1114 was good but not powerhouse yet, 2056 wasn't around. 1625 didn't exist yet. 67, while good hadn't had their year made of win and forever cemented themselves as a powerhouse. (Yes, I honestly believe 67 is the most dominant team in FIRST) How many of those powerhouses would you still classify as a powerhouse? They are good but many aren't the top dogs anymore.

Teams to talk about in the future:
2056 - Finally made Einstein this year after some rough showings in Atlanta.
2753 - This year may have been an off year but I have a hunch.
2775 - Any team that can come out and be 2 wins away from Einstein is ok in my book.
1323 - Expect them to come out after a Chairman's award soon, they are doing a lot of work in their area.
71 - The BEAST hungers, it has been 7 years since their last Championship win. 2007 was their last Einstein appearance. Watch out Midwest.
51 - Any team that takes a Hall of Fame team and merges it with a former World Champion scares me. Once 51 gets in their groove there will be no stopping them.
2619 - Everyone always talks about 2337 but 2619 is another 2008 rookie who has been even more consistent.
2337 - Has done some unique strategies but given a few years to really get into calling games and strategies they could be a contender. They have some dedicated mentors and sponsors and seem to be good at finding student's passion.
33 - IMHO, had a couple off years but came back with a vengeance this year. Having listened to Jim predict strategies and nail them I have no doubt in my mind this team is going to be aiming to bring home some new gold match their yellow soon.

And one wildcard that I have to throw out there, 397. They have been making great strides these last couple years and have recently gotten a new infusion of blood from 27, 67, and 548. If they can get past their issues relating to student recruitment (You would think with 5 trained recruiters as mentors we could get high school students no?) expect to see them come out of the gate strong. If they can't get their issues worked out expect them to flop.

(Sorry if my predictions seem rather MI-centric but you call what you know)

[Josh Drake]

Originally Posted by bassoondude

P.S As a fellow South Carolinian, I am very interested what school your talking about.

Big hint: John McKissick

[fuzzwaz]

The reason I asked this question was because it seems like (In my opinion) that a changing in a team’s success can happen at any point in time. I feel like our teams success has “hopped” all over the place for the past few years.

-In 2005 we were world champs!
-In 2006 we lost to 217 during the finals on Einstein
-In 2007 we lost during the finals on Galileo
-In 2008 we were not picked at the Championship event
-In 2009 we lost in the Semis with 1114 on Archimedes
-In 2010 we did not get picked at States, nor did we get picked at worlds

What I believed was that the quality of our robot was suffering because of the mentality of the group. After 07, we would NEVER think that it was our robot that was the problem, but it was the other things. It was never the robot; we always thought that we had a good chance to win it no matter what our robot was like. This mentality was born because after 05 and 06, our team just assumed that we were good. Is this what happened with HOT after 05? No idea… All I do know is that our entire team’s history changed because of it. If we stayed “dominant” even after 06 would we be as popular as HOT? This is what I mean by the changing in a team’s success. We both won worlds for the first time in 2005. In 2006 we were very close to winning it again. HOT came back and created a dynasty while we thought ourselves gods and fell from the top of Olympus! Who knows what will happen next? I don’t .

[GaryVoshol]

Originally Posted by fuzzwaz

The reason I asked this question was because it seems like (In my opinion) that a changing in a team’s success can happen at any point in time. I feel like our teams success has “hopped” all over the place for the past few years.

-In 2005 we were world champs!
-In 2006 we lost to 217 during the finals on Einstein

Which is interesting, because at Great Lakes we got down to the final alliance selection and both 503 and 67 - defending world champs - were on the sideline waiting to be picked. HOT got the spot, 503 waited for Atlanta.

-In 2007 we lost during the finals on Galileo
-In 2008 we were not picked at the Championship event
-In 2009 we lost in the Semis with 1114 on Archimedes
-In 2010 we did not get picked at States, nor did we get picked at worlds

... we thought ourselves gods and fell from the top of Olympus! ...

I wouldn't be that hard on yourself. You have a good solid program that shows itself in so many ways off the field - kickoff, practice field, FLL support, etc. Sometimes a design or other decision about the robot can make you uncompetitive for a year (meaning you won't be in the finals, not that you will lose every game). That's nothing to be ashamed of - learn from the mistakes and come back better the next year.

[fuzzwaz]

Originally Posted by GaryVoshol

Which is interesting, because at Great Lakes we got down to the final alliance selection and both 503 and 67 - defending world champs - were on the sideline waiting to be picked. HOT got the spot, 503 waited for Atlanta.
I wouldn't be that hard on yourself. You have a good solid program that shows itself in so many ways off the field - kickoff, practice field, FLL support, etc. Sometimes a design or other decision about the robot can make you uncompetitive for a year (meaning you won't be in the finals, not that you will lose every game). That's nothing to be ashamed of - learn from the mistakes and come back better the next year.

Its just that the way we were making our bots was changing mentaly. We were in this huge slump where no matter what happens, it is never the robot. It is the drivers, or the mentors, the refs, the alliance partners, bad luck, ect... We are currently working very hard to get over that, but we are very proud of the way our team connects with our community and with other teams! The point I was trying to make was that even a World Championship team can reach the point where change is needed to get to the top again.

[M.Wong]

Originally Posted by JABot67

On ship day in 2008, we had a robot with a non-functional arm and no autonomous mode. I thought we were screwed with all the catapults/shooters out there that could elegantly toss the ball over the overpass.

So I guess you guys didn't hear about our predicament? On ship day, we had a robot with an arm...that was outside the envelope. So at Midwest (our first regional) we had a huge amount of work to do in order to legalize it. Even after our fix, it was incredibly awkward. It was top heavy and almost never worked.

As an added bonus, our first practice match was disastrous. One of our encoder free-wheels for auto program was accidentally tightened a bit too much; to the point where it was no longer contacting the ground. Well when the match started, our robot dropped into 4WD and rammed full speed into the alliance wall. We pushed the alliance wall back (top leaned about a foot back), put a gash/dent into the alliance wall, and knocked off the Wildstang's control board (breaking it, sorry!).

Originally Posted by Chris is me

Bad robots win IRI?

Everything else aside, I agree with your post.

I'm not sure if you observed it closer, but it was an incredible piece of engineering (17 motors I think?). However, with so many moving parts, it was liable to jam. But when it did work, it work well.


As another member of Frog Force, I believe the main issue we have is motivation. While those who came before us were deeply invested in a team they helped to start, it is no surprise that those who join now do not see past the current year. Considering our team started in 2001, those who joined the team in its infancy were seniors the year we won Worlds (2005).

Their motivation and vision for the team assisted them in their desires. They wrote the bylaws for our team, keeping in mind that those who would follow would have the same passion and drive that they possessed. Sure, there is a group of us who have the drive, the passion, and the vision to push the team forward, but there are many more who do not. While some of us attempt to just maintain the team, quite a few of us are pushing the team forward, to evolve.

Hopefully, we can continue our push for change and progression.

[IKE]

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but Team 33 has not "won" a regional for at least 5 years. One thing I think that is interesting about FIRST is that it really "Awards" just the winners. If you start judging your success by trophies in the case, you are destined for a troubled future.

Some 503 specific advice: You guys had a great run for several years, but one thing you absolutely must understand about FIRST, is that the about 1/3 of the time, luck plays a great deal in being a Champion. I know that seems like blasphemy, and people will write about predestined teams, but notice i put a 1/3rd in there. The reasons:
In games where 2 robots can dominate the game (2008, 2009, 2010, 2006), the #1 or #2 alliance will win. thus if you are the 23rd or 24th best robot or have a strong relationship with the picker, you too will win (i.e. 1/3rd of the Winners were fortunate).
In games where 3 good robots can beat 2 great robots (think 2007), the number 8 alliance can often pull an upset (spoken form experience in the #1 seed). No one goes into a tournament striving to be the 8th best, or 15th/16th best or event the 23rd/24th best. those things just kind of happen.
From a winning perspective, the worst spot to be in is the 5th-8th most capable machine at an event. You will often end up in the 3rd-6th alliance which means you will likely be beat in the semi's. One of our goals is to play in the eliminations at every event. Only the winner's get to end the day on a victory, so we all lose at some point.
So what does it take to be sure you will be playing Saturday afternoon? You must either figure out how to seed in the top 8 or be in the top 16 at the event. YOU MUST. Top 24 is not good enough because you have some teams luck into the captain positions, and you have specialty picks (defense, zone specialists, ramp bots) during the second picks. If you are trying to play offense, you must be top 16.

MSC is tough. We had 503 around 30th on our list. What that means is I would not have been shocked if you were picked, but I would have been surprised at a first round pick.

Championship is a mixed bag. Honestly, on most of the fields, it was softer than the MSC (see OPR paper for Divsion Strength). Archimedes was very similar to MSC with only 1 stand-out (254 was in a league of their own) instead of 3 standouts like MSC. That being said, it is tougher to get picked. There is more regional bias, luck, and quite frankly poor picks at the championship. This year with 10 rounds and the points based seeding, there was less luck in reaching the top 10 (though more schedule luck for order of the top 10). There were a lot of great teams (regional winners) that didn't play Saturday afternoon. There were Multi-year world champions knocked out in the first round.

So, from a robot perspective, consider this a wake-up call to do better next year. Talk about what went right, and what went wrong. Look at what teams better than you did. Focus on the teams that have similar capabilities but end up turning out a superior product. That is what we did after last year. We built too complicated of a machine with too little resources last year. We were beat by teams with less resources, but way more elegant designs. 330 is a team that doesn't get enough credit for elegance in design. Year after year they turn out one of the best robots around with very simple fabrication techniques. Elegance is often harder than complicated machines.

All that aside, 503 is a great team. You guys won the Chairman's at MSC. This is an amazing feat that you should be very proud of. There are many teams that left MSC and the Championship with only memories. That is still a success in many people's minds (as it should be).

[bassoondude]

Originally Posted by DRAKE343

Big hint: John McKissick

Ahh the legend that he is. Without highjacking this thread too much more, I have to say he is impressive, but my team still came out on top (no offense intended). Think early last season, on the road, Gold and Black.

[DarkFlame145]

As stated a few times before. Teams have their ups and downs. Sometimes really long ups and sometimes really long downs. Heck my HS team had one if not their best year ever this season. Even if you have a bad year or 5 bad years as long as everyone has fun and learns something to improve on, it is a successful year to me. Winning feels great, but it's not everything.