Car Nack Predicts 2011-1

[JesseK]

I agree. At 20 seconds per tube (conservative estimates) it's not only improbable if focused on, but nearly impossible to complete AND get 2 minibots going up the poles. Traversing the field kills it :x

.... unless ....

Both alliances work towards it!

But then that's not an alliance.

Carnack, you are indeed wise are you are mysterious.

[nuggetsyl]

I am going to disagree with this one. Though out this season i think their will be some pairing that allows this. Teams were being bashed in 07 and were still able to get 10 (alliances) up i only see this total going higher with no defense

[Peter Matteson]

I wondered how long it would take for Car Nack to speak.

I do agree with him at this point as I can't figure out time wise how this would work yet. 6 game pieces per robot scored on an alliance without getting in each other's way would be very tough to accomplish on an empty field in 2 minutes let alone with the other 3 robots and dropped game objects.

[Chris is me]

Much like 30 points last year, I think a full rack depends on the perfect alliance doing something pretty unconventional to increase tube throughput.

[Kevin Sevcik]

Originally Posted by nuggetsyl

I am going to disagree with this one. Though out this season i think their will be some pairing that allows this. Teams were being bashed in 07 and were still able to get 10 (alliances) up i only see this total going higher with no defense

'07 was a rather lot easier than '11, though. Here's the rundown of what makes hanging lots harder this year:

1. You have to hang 12 tubes for this challenge, not 10.
2. Most of your tubes are always 50 feet away, not 15.
3. Much less room for multiple robots to work the grid. It's pretty much 1 per half.
4. Lose just one of your tubes to the opponents and this is impossible till you steal the same tube back.
5. The more you succeed at this the harder it becomes as your vision gets blocked.
6. You have a shorter window to accomplish this. You HAVE to try the minibot race because a full rack is only 20-30 more than 1st and 2nd place. An 8th ringer completely dominated ramping.

I'd actually really like to expand on the last point because it's what makes this such an incredibly easy prediction for Car-Nack. It's a pretty simple game theory analysis. There's extremely little incentive for actually completing all 6 logos. Specifically, there's almost no incentive for finishing a bottom row. Allow me to explain. Lets assume that your alliance would take the whole match to finish the grid, averaging 20 seconds per row. There's 2 options, spend the last 20 seconds finishing the last bottom row, or spend it lining up for the minibot race. The choice here is obvious. A completed bottom row is only worth 6 points. The two slowest minibots on the field still add up to 25 points. It's not even really a contest, you HAVE to play the minibot race. So teams are only going to spend about 100 seconds trying to fill the grid, which makes it even more impossible.

This is markedly different from '07. Two ramped bots were worth 50 points, which is a dominant endgame strategy up until you're hanging your 7th ringer in a row. If you had to choose between hanging a 7th or 8th ringer, or ramping, you're spending those last 20 seconds hanging. That's just not the case this year.

[nuggetsyl]

Originally Posted by Kevin Sevcik

'07 was a rather lot easier than '11, though. Here's the rundown of what makes hanging lots harder this year:

1. You have to hang 12 tubes for this challenge, not 10.
2. Most of your tubes are always 50 feet away, not 15.
3. Much less room for multiple robots to work the grid. It's pretty much 1 per half.
4. Lose just one of your tubes to the opponents and this is impossible till you steal the same tube back.
5. The more you succeed at this the harder it becomes as your vision gets blocked.
6. You have a shorter window to accomplish this. You HAVE to try the minibot race because a full rack is only 20-30 more than 1st and 2nd place. An 8th ringer completely dominated ramping.

I'd actually really like to expand on the last point because it's what makes this such an incredibly easy prediction for Car-Nack. It's a pretty simple game theory analysis. There's extremely little incentive for actually completing all 6 logos. Specifically, there's almost no incentive for finishing a bottom row. Allow me to explain. Lets assume that your alliance would take the whole match to finish the grid, averaging 20 seconds per row. There's 2 options, spend the last 20 seconds finishing the last bottom row, or spend it lining up for the minibot race. The choice here is obvious. A completed bottom row is only worth 6 points. The two slowest minibots on the field still add up to 25 points. It's not even really a contest, you HAVE to play the minibot race. So teams are only going to spend about 100 seconds trying to fill the grid, which makes it even more impossible.

This is markedly different from '07. Two ramped bots were worth 50 points, which is a dominant endgame strategy up until you're hanging your 7th ringer in a row. If you had to choose between hanging a 7th or 8th ringer, or ramping, you're spending those last 20 seconds hanging. That's just not the case this year.

I am not saying this will be common if i had to put a number on it i would say less then 5 times will you see the 6 first logos. But never i do no think so. Of coarse i am not CarNack so take it with a grain of salt

[Sean Raia]

Who is Car Nack?
From what i've gathered, he makes one of these predictions each year?

[Kims Robot]

Originally Posted by Sean Raia

Who is Car Nack?
From what i've gathered, he makes one of these predictions each year?

A little browsing through the Car Nack Forum and you will figure it out!

[Chris is me]

Car Knack didn't really get this one head on...

Congrats 148, 1503, 1538.

[NickE]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

Car Knack didn't really get this one head on...

Congrats 148, 1503, 1538.

Also done by 195, 254, 469 in Galileo Q-56.

[Bjenks548]

Also done yesterday at Marc with 67, 245, and 469 with 25 seconds to spare. Q-1

[Koko Ed]

Originally Posted by Bjenks548

Also done yesterday at Marc with 67, 245, and 469 with 25 seconds to spare. Q-1

and again this morning with 67, 2337 and a third team I am unable to recall.

[Adam Freeman]

Originally Posted by Koko Ed

and again this morning with 67, 2337 and a third team I am unable to recall.

51.

Very fun to be a part of both alliances.

[EricH]

Car Nack is one of the few strategy gurus with more than one Championship. To be exact, his team has the most Championship wins of any team in FRC.

If Car Nack says something related to strategy, everyone will be well-advised to listen to him.

[Sean Raia]

Woah, thats really... interesting.
So im guessing he made this position based on the time it takes to bring a logo piece across the field multiplied by 18(number of pieces needed to make 6 logos) and divided by 3(number of teams in an alliance) which gives us 6.

(135 in a match) - (15 autonomous) -(10 for end-game).

so 110/6 which lends about 18 seconds to place a piece (to break his prediction). I think Car Nack is pretty darn good at predictions, but fails to account for the possibility of a robot that launchs pieces across the field to their teammates. Still, i have a feeling hes right.

Note: i didnt account for the placing of ubertubes in autonomous which slightly lowers the time frame needed to place 6 logos.