pic: Alliance Scores Over the 2011 FRC Season

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by IKE

Anyone care to do an alysis on how many teams would have to average net 0 pts. in order for 20% of alliances have a resultant score of 0 pts.?

for example, with dice, if I have 3 dice, the probility of at least 1 of them being a 1 during a roll would be 3*1/6 or 50%. the prob of 2 being 1s would be 3/2*1/36 or 4.5%. The probablility of 3 1s would be 0.5%. At a district event with 80 matches, there would be 160 alliances, and thus I would expect 1,1,1 0.8 times or 80% of events, there would be at least 1 alliance that got 1, 1, 1.

If 0 is assumed as the lower limit, then a 0,0,0 should be difficult to get. If FRC was on 2 vs 2, and 50% of the field could score 1 (or more), and 50% of the field could score 0. I believe you would expect on 25% of alliances to have a score of 0.

For 3 vs. 3, it should (in theory) be significantly more difficult... in theory. I guess my argument is that if "average" robot might correspond with your values, but the "median robot" may perform significantly lower...

That is a very good point. I should've thought of that. It only strengths the argument that the typical robot isn't as good as most people think on kickoff.

I'll look at home to see if I can find my 2007 and 2008 scouting data from BAE to see if I can scare up an an actual points/match by robot distribution. It would be interesting to compare that to a distribution predicted by OPR, just to see how well that metric matches the real world.