pic: Alliance Scores Over the 2011 FRC Season

[Brandon Holley]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

As an interesting side note, it looks like in 2011 OPR did a suprisingly good job at predicting scores of the top 50% of the field, and was less good with the bottom 50% of the field.

Very interesting analysis, well done.

Hypothesis for the poor prediction of the lower 50%:

-It's mainly sig figs. You can see this in your "Actual Scores" dotplot; the minibot scoring put a dip in values in the mid range. Scores are not evenly distributed throughout the entire range (0~100), because the minibots caused wild swings in scores. If you scored at all with a minibot, you were swinging your score upward by a large %.

I would be interested just to see what % of scores were under 14, and what % of scores are above 40. If the percentage is similar, it helps my hypothesis. Basically what I am saying is that if a large number of scores are within a limited range of data (0-14) it will be more difficult to properly predict team order. With the scores in the higher range, you have more values at your disposal (40-100) so placing teams in that range becomes simpler.

Does that make sense?

-Brando