pic: Alliance Scores Over the 2011 FRC Season

[Ian Curtis]

I agree that minibots throw big wrenches into the works, it makes the scoring nonlinear and hard to categorize typical (is 30/0/30/0 worth the same as 15/15/15/15?). I am not quite sure what you are saying with the 14 vs. 40 though, I'll chew on it some more.

See Chris's post below. FLR is apparently not indicative of the average match because of 6v0. Other regionals remain skewed, so I'll do one of those tomorrow.

In the meantime, I ran the same thing for 2010 just to see what it looks like and it pains a very different picture. I used FLR because BAE does not have posted scores on FIRST's website, so Bongle's OPR calculator won't work, and I've never quite got my MATLAB one to work. FLR is still an older week 1 event though, so I would hope the trends hold. (famous last words right?)

Firstly, the OPR distribution is very normal. The mean and the median differ by less than 10%.

And compared to the halfway decent match we got in 2011, the only thing that matches up is the minimum score is zero. Below is a boxplot of and histogram to bear that out. The OPR predicted scores are fairly normal, but the true distribution looks more much like a chi-squared distribution. So in 2010 OPR over predicted the average score fairly significantly.

Will the OPR algorithm always produce some relatively normal distribution barring a big disruptive force like minibots? I could see how that might be the case, but I'm afraid I'm not nearly good enough at math to go about demonstrating that is the case.