Best way to predict match outcomes

To quote Harrison Ford: "Never tell me the odds".

I like your method for match prediction, but fail to see the use. Could you enlighten me as to how and why 20 uses this data and match prediction to gain an advantage? Or is it all for fun statistics?

[brennonbrimhall]

We'll use our data for strategizing our individual matches, and for pick lists. The real usage we've found for match prediction is for rankings – and predicting where other teams (including us) will stand for eliminations. We like a reasonable picture of the next day – a forecast, if you will.

And it's fun to make the occasional bet on a match on the basis of mathematical models.

[gobrewcrew95]

Originally Posted by Andrew Lawrence

I like your method for match prediction, but fail to see the use. Could you enlighten me as to how and why 20 uses this data and match prediction to gain an advantage? Or is it all for fun statistics?

I'm not going to speak for team 20 as to why they do it, but I shall tell you why my team does.

We scout the same way team 20 does, with 6 scouters each scouting a different robot each match. You never want to biased when scouting as it can throw off the data. They then turn in the standard scouting sheets to our person inputting the data into our Excel scouting program. It takes the data we collect and produces ranks and the like depending on how much a certain aspect (i.e. scoring ability, defense ability, etc.) is "weighted". The program is able to be easily customized each season to function according to the game making it great for each season with some tweaking.

Anyways, it is very sophisticated (sheets for separate teams, matches, etc.) and we use it to predict the upcoming matches and also for potential alliance members. Kinda for fun, but also to see which robots are the "game changers" in a match. If you know the game changers in a match, you know if you have to defend them, stay away from them, or ask your teammates to try a different strategy if you believe it will help the alliance win.

It is a very reliable system and I believe it was 95% accurate this season in predicting the matches very good at ranking the teams once tweaked right. Thank you scouters! A good scouting system can win you the regional! (It also gave some of our team members something to do if the were not cheering or working on the robot.)

By the way, I can't really explain the specifics as to what it does because I did not make it and do not have access to it right now. I believe it uses the macros feature utilizing some 1500+ lines of code or something like that...

[brennonbrimhall]

Originally Posted by gobrewcrew95

A good scouting system can win you the regional!

Amen.

Originally Posted by gobrewcrew95

It is a very reliable system and I believe it was 95% accurate this season in predicting the matches very good at ranking the teams once tweaked right...By the way, I can't really explain the specifics as to what it does because I did not make it and do not have access to it right now. I believe it uses the macros feature utilizing some 1500+ lines of code or something like that...

If you aren't sure of any specifics, could you refer me to someone who does?

[Angeliukm]

What's wrong with just playing the actual match?

Absolutely nothing! I have to admit that it's the most accurate way to find out (barring scoring errors).

I like your method for match prediction, but fail to see the use. Could you enlighten me as to how and why 20 uses this data and match prediction to gain an advantage? Or is it all for fun statistics?

As Team 20's drive coach this season, I found that the information was most useful for looking at the individual robots in a match rather than the outcome of the match as a whole. We have a match outcome predictor program, but it was... less than accurate. It was never used, which is why (I assume) Brennon is looking for an alternate method.

As Brennon pointed out, knowing the projected outcome of a match was useful in figuring out who might seed, but that sort of information is generally more useful when trying to make a pick list on Friday, not during a match. Knowing ahead of time who might be picking allowed us to figure out who they might pick, and how to put together an alliance to beat that potential alliance. That way, I did't have to try to make a split decision on the field with everyone singing the Jeopardy song. With that being said, there are upsets; we found that out when our Friday pick list suddenly became not as relevant as we thought it would be, about an hour before selections at Championships. It would be nice to have very accurate match predictions where surprises like that didn't happen.

However, the information that we use to predict the match's outcome is also very useful in and of itself before/during matches for all of the reasons that scouting is useful. With the type data that we were collecting, we could figure out the average score of each robot, and using that, the expected score of each alliance. By looking at the scouting data on our alliance partners and opponents for each match, I would know ahead of time that our two allies would probably score a combined total of about 15 points, and we could adjust our strategy accordingly (ask if they would be willing to play defense or feed). Or, if we were the lowest scorer on our alliance, we would consider playing defense ourselves if we could prevent the other alliance from scoring more points than we scored on average in telop. You can make your own (favorable) upsets that way.

So, you're right. The main value of prediction isn't knowing the outcome of the match; it's knowing how the match might be played.