paper: Weeks 1-2 Elo Analysis

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Michael Hill

My baseline was just using OPR for predicting match outcomes, it was able to predict about 77.1% of the matches this year.

I just ran the OPR numbers using the data you linked in your earlier post. I came up with 6919 of 8921 matches correctly "postdicted", or 77.56%

Our numbers are very close, but I had expected them to be identical.

Here's a link to an XLS spreadsheet.

[Michael Hill]

Originally Posted by Ether

I just ran the OPR numbers using the data you linked in your earlier post. I came up with 6919 of 8921 matches correctly "postdicted", or 77.56%

Our numbers are very close, but I had expected them to be identical.

Here's a link to an XLS spreadsheet.

The differences are how we're calling tied matches. The way you're calculating if OPR "correctly" predicted falls apart when the actual result of the match was a tie. Almost always, the OPR will not predict a tie.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Michael Hill

The differences are how we're calling tied matches.

77.75% correct (discarding ties)

77.11% correct (counting ties as incorrect)

77.93% correct (counting ties as correct)

[Michael Hill]

Originally Posted by Ether

77.75% correct (discarding ties)

77.11% correct (counting ties as incorrect)

77.93% correct (counting ties as correct)

It looks like we're in agreement when counting ties as incorrect.