paper: Alliance Seeds and Results

[AGPapa]

Originally Posted by Chief Hedgehog

I can offer a different viewpoint on this subject. However, before I do I must stress that in a venue such as a regional that boasts 60-65 participating teams the advantage of being the #1 Captain lessens considerably over regionals that have 40-50 teams.

Interesting, I've found the exact opposite thing to occur. In smaller events (like Districts), the only picks left at the end of the draft are often extremely poor while a strong lower seed can get 3 competent robots.

To look into this a bit more I modified Brian's spreadsheet to compare District events to Regional events. At Districts the 1st seed won 40% of the time, compared to 56.45% at Regionals. The 6th, 7th and 8th seeds won a combined 12.5% of District events, but only 4.84% of Regionals.

Even more interesting, a District 1st seed that makes it to the finals only wins 64% of the time, while a Regional 1st seeded alliance wins 77.78% of the time.


It doesn't seem like I can add an attachment to this post (I guess because it's a paper?), so pm me if you want the modified spreadsheet. Here are photos of it though: Regionals Districts

EDIT: The Region Championships are classified as Regionals in my spreadsheet

[artK]

Originally Posted by AGPapa

Interesting, I've found the exact opposite thing to occur. In smaller events (like Districts), the only picks left at the end of the draft are often extremely poor while a strong lower seed can get 3 competent robots.

Someone mentioned earlier in the thread that at WVROX, three of the top four alliances lost in quarterfinals, and that there were 24 teams, on a serpentine draft. In my experience, there is usually a significant dropoff in robot quality somewhere on the back end of the serpentine draft (though this also depends on scouting abilities, more on that later), and at small events, this can spell disaster for top alliances.

On the flipside, consider the championships, with almost a hundred teams in a division, where really good teams like 971, 973, 16, 610, 1640, and 177 get picked up on the backswing of the draft (these in particular have a lot to do with scouting flukes, but good picks have been made on the back end before).

I have come to realize that for the best alliances to form, events need a) a good number of matches (to insure the best teams reach the top) and b) a good number of teams (to allow good second or third picks to form). Unfortunately, these two variables limit each other, so often events have to pick one over the other. WVROX went wrong in this respect in having only 24 teams with how ever many matches. Champs 2013 went wrong with this when they had 100 teams and only 8 matches. With the constraints in mind, the easiest way to optimize the alliances according to their rank would be to change the draft order depending on the event size.

[Chief Hedgehog]

Originally Posted by AGPapa

Interesting, I've found the exact opposite thing to occur. In smaller events (like Districts), the only picks left at the end of the draft are often extremely poor while a strong lower seed can get 3 competent robots.

To look into this a bit more I modified Brian's spreadsheet to compare District events to Regional events. At Districts the 1st seed won 40% of the time, compared to 56.45% at Regionals. The 6th, 7th and 8th seeds won a combined 12.5% of District events, but only 4.84% of Regionals.

Even more interesting, a District 1st seed that makes it to the finals only wins 64% of the time, while a Regional 1st seeded alliance wins 77.78% of the time.


It doesn't seem like I can add an attachment to this post (I guess because it's a paper?), so pm me if you want the modified spreadsheet. Here are photos of it though: Regionals Districts

EDIT: The Region Championships are classified as Regionals in my spreadsheet

Sorry, my mistake was in my choice of words. The larger the regional, the better for the 1st seed. The smaller the field, the less benefit for the #1 team.

@Alan Anderson - No, my meaning was that the 1st seed had proven it was capable of winning throughout the quals - no matter the make-up of either alliance. So the #1 Seed is deserving of choosing the best fit for their first pick. The larger the field, the better for the #1 seed.

I hope this clears it up! I really like the serpentine draft as it rewards the best performing teams a great first pick - but allows for a balance over the draft altogether!