pic: Top 10% OPRs compared via standard deviation distribution - 2008-2015

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

You're absolutely right, I had forgotten about penalties. I wonder how these graphs would compare if the OPRs from last year incorporated penalties.

Pretty sure last year's OPR included penalties, as with all previous years. The OPR calculation is simply a regression analysis on the total final score for each match with a dummy variable for each team.

So I go back to my original comment that the low end spread is quite interesting. I think it might be reflective of how difficult it is for a newer or less experienced team to contribute to the game, but I didn't think they could detract so much.

BTW, there are special statistical properties to include when running regressions with a continuous dependent variable (score) and 0-1 dummy variables (i.e., whether a team is present on the alliance). I haven't looked at that issue for quite a while so I don't remember much beyond that but it is a consideration in the OPR estimation.