pic: Top 10% OPRs compared via standard deviation distribution - 2008-2015

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Pretty sure last year's OPR included penalties, as with all previous years. The OPR calculation is simply a regression analysis on the total final score for each match with a dummy variable for each team.

So I go back to my original comment that the low end spread is quite interesting. I think it might be reflective of how difficult it is for a newer or less experienced team to contribute to the game, but I didn't think they could detract so much.

BTW, there are special statistical properties to include when running regressions with a continuous dependent variable (score) and 0-1 dummy variables (i.e., whether a team is present on the alliance). I haven't looked at that issue for quite a while so I don't remember much beyond that but it is a consideration in the OPR estimation.

I should have been more clear. What I meant to convey was that penalties last year had no direct impact on the offending team's score. Thus, OPR would have no way to tell that a team was hurting their alliance because of penalties. Since penalties this year are subtractive, they are reflected in the OPR calculations.

What I am curious about is an alternate OPR calculation for last year which would use the following formula in the match score matrix instead of the nominal score:
adjusted score = (nominal score) - (penalty points incurred by opposing alliance) + (penalty points incurred by this alliance)

Actually, I do remember uOPR (unpenalized OPR) being calculated last year. Was this the method of obtaining that? Or did it just subtract out all penalty points incurred without adding any back in?