2015 Champs Predictions

[MrJohnston]

I need to do some more scouting before having an actual prediction, but I do think that many of these "guesses" are missing a major point: Canburgling.

Look at most of the Curie predictions: 148 and 1114 top everybody's list. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the two strongest robots in that division. However, neither has much canburgling ability (at least as of yet). If they work together as the #1 alliance in Curie, their third pick is not likely to have a great canburgler. In other words they could be facing the prospects of frequently only having access to 3 recycling containers. So... 3 x 42pt stacks + 20 auto + 30 more tote points (?) = 176 pts. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals.

So, let's say 1114 is #1 out of qualifications. Do they dare pick 148? That question comes down to: Have they developed a fast enough autonomous can-grabber to be able to afford to do so? Or, do they need to grave for the fastest two-can auto grabber in Curie, whomever that might be? Of course if 148 is #1, they are going to have to look at 1114 and determine if they have the ability to win the center bin wars. If not, do they dare pick 1114?

The fact of the matter is: That first pick in alliance selection is, in all likelihood, going to be the fastest and most accurate can grabber available. With countless teams developing grabbers right now, it is impossible to know who that will actually be.

In all divisions, I predict that the #1 captain will be somebody who individually puts up 120-140 points per match - three stack capability. That captain will then pick the fastest/best two-can grabber in the division so long as it can put up about 40 points. The third pick will be the best available two-can grabber. The fourth - a robot that can put up some points, but may only have the ability to grab one recycling container.

What I like about this: The competition is wide open. Starting right now, if you can build the fastest two bin grabber, you have a legitimate shot at getting yourself onto Einstein.

What I find both scary and exciting: The world's fastest canburgler may not present itself until elimination rounds - or even division finals.

Yes, this year's championships could be decided by cheesecake.

[howdosheeplamp]

Originally Posted by MrJohnston

I need to do some more scouting before having an actual prediction, but I do think that many of these "guesses" are missing a major point: Canburgling.

Look at most of the Curie predictions: 148 and 1114 top everybody's list. There is no doubt in my mind that they are the two strongest robots in that division. However, neither has much canburgling ability (at least as of yet). If they work together as the #1 alliance in Curie, their third pick is not likely to have a great canburgler. In other words they could be facing the prospects of frequently only having access to 3 recycling containers. So... 3 x 42pt stacks + 20 auto + 30 more tote points (?) = 176 pts. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals.

So, let's say 1114 is #1 out of qualifications. Do they dare pick 148?..

Really? From what I have seen, it is pretty reasonable to think that 1114 and 148 can use every single tote on their side of the field, especially since they are not capping all their stacks. 1114 uses all landfill totes for 3 stacks of 6 and then another from their ramp from HP load. 148 uses the remaining 24 totes in the HP to make 4 stacks of their own.
-They definitely have 3 containers, and will make 42(3) = 126 pts
-Since both have a 3 tote auto it is likely that they will get the 20 pts bonus
-After their first 3, they make 5 other stacks of totes 6 high = 30(2) = 60 pts
-They have 7 noodles left over, which I will assume they will just save

results in 206 points if they are completely robbed of cans.
each recycling container that they get will convert 6 totes (12) to a capped 6-stack (42), so a 30 point bonus.

TL;DR
for 1114 and 148, they score:
with no step cans: ~206 (7 litter in reserve)
with 1: ~236 (6 litter in reserve)
with 2: ~266 (5 litter in reserve)
with 3: ~296 (4 litter in reserve)
with 4: ~326 (3 litter in reserve)

They have incentive to pick each other. To beat them, you need to steal all 4 step cans and at least put up points equivalent to 5 stacks of 6 worth of points. (210)

Any predictions at this point for canburglars are pointless because so many teams will have better and faster ones. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by howdosheeplamp

Really? From what I have seen, it is pretty reasonable to think that 1114 and 148 can use every single tote on their side of the field, especially since they are not capping all their stacks. 1114 uses all landfill totes for 3 stacks of 6 and then another from their ramp from HP load. 148 uses the remaining 24 totes in the HP to make 4 stacks of their own.
-They definitely have 3 containers, and will make 42(3) = 126 pts
-Since both have a 3 tote auto it is likely that they will get the 20 pts bonus
-After their first 3, they make 5 other stacks of totes 6 high = 30(2) = 60 pts
-They have 7 noodles left over, which I will assume they will just save

results in 206 points if they are completely robbed of cans.
each recycling container that they get will convert 6 totes (12) to a capped 6-stack (42), so a 30 point bonus.

TL;DR
for 1114 and 148, they score:
with no step cans: ~206 (7 litter in reserve)
with 1: ~236 (6 litter in reserve)
with 2: ~266 (5 litter in reserve)
with 3: ~296 (4 litter in reserve)
with 4: ~326 (3 litter in reserve)

They have incentive to pick each other. To beat them, you need to steal all 4 step cans and at least put up points equivalent to 5 stacks of 6 worth of points. (210)

Any predictions at this point for canburglars are pointless because so many teams will have better and faster ones. We'll just have to wait and see.

And I guarantee 1114 has a fast canburglar by now.
So there's that.

[MrJohnston]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

And I guarantee 1114 has a fast canburglar by now.
So there's that.

Yes, I'm sure they do. However, the real questions are: How fast is it? and "Is somebody clever enough to build a faster one?" 1114 is a great team top to bottom. However, they are all human. They can be beaten. If they don't have the fastest canburgler, they are vulnerable.

Do I think they will most likely win? Certainly. However, I really believe that FRC is a competition and I plan to compete - there is no reason to roll over. Am I 90% likely to lose? Yup. 99%? Probably. However, I am going to do everything I can to try to beat them.

Let's not deify that pair and, instead, find some way to better them. If we prevent them from gaining any center bins, they will lose. I'll give them the 206 points calculated above. That won't get them out of the quarterfinals either. They need at least one (likely two) center bins just like the rest of us.

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by MrJohnston

The fact of the matter is: That first pick in alliance selection is, in all likelihood, going to be the fastest and most accurate can grabber available. With countless teams developing grabbers right now, it is impossible to know who that will actually be.

It's not quite so simple. Let me give the example from MSC. 1023, a HP bot, seeded first and had three realistic choices:

• 33 - Best landfill bot
• 548 - Most consistent 2-can grabber, very capable HP stacker
• 469 - Arguably a better can grabber than 548 when functioning, similar speed for 4 cans. Caveats: only used once in a match, takes a bit too long to set up

No single team, even with a little help, can put up enough points to win, no matter how many cans are available. Picking the team with the best can grabber available might have worked at MSC, because a team like 1023 plus 469 (not that great a stacker) plus the last pick of the draft could probably have put up enough points. But 1023 made the obvious choice in picking an arguably worse can-grabber but better stacker in 548, because 2 cans is enough if you can put up the stacks.

Fast-forward to CMP, there's no guarantee a great stacker seeding 1st will have a 548 available to them (except in Hopper, I suppose). Picking a dedicated can-grabber could work if there's a good enough stacker coming back around, but the last picks at MSC were higher quality than they will be at CMP, and even at MSC this was barely a viable strategy*. Maybe they'll be able to rely on one stack from their 3rd bot.

But a top alliance knows they need to win their division before they win Einstein. Picking a can grabber that can't do much else will result in that alliance doing neither, because one team, with a little help, simply can't create enough stacks to win.

tl;dr Even can grabbers need to score stacks if they want to be picked first


*573, as the 5th captain, took a big gamble picking 27, a dedicated canburglar/capper, as their first pick. But it paid off like crazy because they were able to get a phenomenal 3rd bot, 3098 (Watch them score 20 totes). It should not have worked, 3098 should've been picked way earlier.

[MrJohnston]

Originally Posted by Basel A

It's not quite so simple. Let me give the example from MSC. 1023, a HP bot, seeded first and had three realistic choices:

• 33 - Best landfill bot
• 548 - Most consistent 2-can grabber, very capable HP stacker
• 469 - Arguably a better can grabber than 548 when functioning, similar speed for 4 cans. Caveats: only used once in a match, takes a bit too long to set up

No single team, even with a little help, can put up enough points to win, no matter how many cans are available. Picking the team with the best can grabber available might have worked at MSC, because a team like 1023 plus 469 (not that great a stacker) plus the last pick of the draft could probably have put up enough points. But 1023 made the obvious choice in picking an arguably worse can-grabber but better stacker in 548, because 2 cans is enough if you can put up the stacks.

Fast-forward to CMP, there's no guarantee a great stacker seeding 1st will have a 548 available to them (except in Hopper, I suppose). Picking a dedicated can-grabber could work if there's a good enough stacker coming back around, but the last picks at MSC were higher quality than they will be at CMP, and even at MSC this was barely a viable strategy*. Maybe they'll be able to rely on one stack from their 3rd bot.

But a top alliance knows they need to win their division before they win Einstein. Picking a can grabber that can't do much else will result in that alliance doing neither, because one team, with a little help, simply can't create enough stacks to win.

tl;dr Even can grabbers need to score stacks if they want to be picked first


*573, as the 5th captain, took a big gamble picking 27, a dedicated canburglar/capper, as their first pick. But it paid off like crazy because they were able to get a phenomenal 3rd bot, 3098 (Watch them score 20 totes). It should not have worked, 3098 should've been picked way earlier.

I do disagree. If you are a great stacker (such as 4488) as the #1 captain and pick a great robot - whose not a can grabber, by the time you get your second pick you may not have any good can grabbers left. You have now limited yourself to 3 RC's for elimination rounds: A formula for an exit in the quarter finals. Sure, you might have the worlds fastest piece of cheesecake, but that will still limit you to getting two additional RC's - assuming your cheesecake truly is the fastest.

Nay... Unless that #1 captain is an autonomous RC grabber or has some very fast cheesecake waiting, it needs to choose an RC grabber.

[MrJohnston]

Originally Posted by Basel A

tl;dr Even can grabbers need to score stacks if they want to be picked first

I do agree with this... If the can grabber is truly so good it will get 2 every time and winning every possible match, I would want it to be able to put up at least 40 points on its own...

[Kettering]

Originally Posted by Basel A

*573, as the 5th captain, took a big gamble picking 27, a dedicated canburglar/capper, as their first pick. But it paid off like crazy because they were able to get a phenomenal 3rd bot, 3098 (Watch them score 20 totes). It should not have worked, 3098 should've been picked way earlier.

It was actually 21 totes . And we were doing stacks of 6 just as fast in Semis and Finals.

[Loose Screw]

Originally Posted by Kettering

It was actually 21 totes . And we were doing stacks of 6 just as fast in Semis and Finals.

I really liked that alliance. In a game where the top OPR teams score 42pt stacks by themselves, it was really cool watching your alliance work together to score. Teams like 27 that focused on perfecting one element of scoring struggled in the rankings because they are extremely partner-reliant. However, when they were paired together in that alliance, they went far. They had a very good chance of beating #1, and they proved that the #1 alliance isn't a garunteed win. I hope to see more alliances like theirs at worlds.