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Originally Posted by Citrus Dad
It's been known that OPR doesn't reflect actual scoring ability.
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...Especially if the OPR is not computed from the same data components used to compute "actual scoring ability"
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I suggest running a log regression on this data. I can see that it has a diminishing relationship between OPR and scoring rather than a linear one.
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It would be most helpful to first clarify what OPR is being plotted and how "actual scoring ability" is being computed.
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Unfortunately no one ever posts the estimates' standard errors (which I imagine to be enormous with 10 or so observations.)
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In years past, I have posted plots and charts and analyses showing the Ax-b residuals, which is the difference between the actual alliance scores and the "OPR-computed" scores for those same alliances, and makes no assumptions about the error distribution being normal. If this is of general interest, I can generate and post that analysis for 2015.
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