paper: 4536 scouting database BETA

[Caleb Sykes]

Week 7 data has been added.

Per request, I have also added a "championship preview" sheet which contains data on the best event (by OPR) of every team registered for championships as of 5PM CST on 4/18/2016. There is no new information on this sheet, all data are copied directly from the "world results" sheet. I am not planning to release updates if/when the championship team list changes, so you will have to update this sheet yourself.

If someone could check the data from the Michigan State Championship against scouting data to see that they roughly correlate, I would appreciate it. When I originally made this database, all of my calculations assumed that no event would have more than 100 teams or more than 200 matches. Thus, I had to modify a few things to accommodate MSC, which makes me nervous that I may have introduced one or more small errors somewhere.

Unless someone notices an error, I will not be releasing another update until after championships.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

If someone could check the data from the Michigan State Championship against scouting data to see that they roughly correlate, I would appreciate it. When I originally made this database, all of my calculations assumed that no event would have more than 100 teams or more than 200 matches. Thus, I had to modify a few things to accommodate MSC, which makes me nervous that I may have introduced one or more small errors somewhere.

These values have been verified to be correct. Ether ran calculations independently that provided results which matched the results in this database.

[Caleb Sykes]

I have ran the calculations for championships, but there seems to be a bit of a discrepancy between my data and what is posted on TBA. Could someone independently run OPR calculations for Carson to see if the error is more likely on my side or on TBA's side? I will be investigating more on my own, the discrepancy seems like it might be related to qualification match #1.

Here is Carson's top 15 OPR according to TBA:

1024	67.95
868	64.40
973	59.73
225	57.22
2052	57.07
610	56.95
2122	56.15
2590	54.44
5895	54.13
41	52.82
2067	51.82
3824	50.56
2137	49.56
3538	47.72
2474	47.07

Here is the top 15 OPR according to my calculations:

1024	67.75374586
868	63.84195886
2122	59.32732553
973	59.02368093
225	57.49356224
610	56.71770781
2052	56.52062215
2590	54.57781003
5895	53.93177915
41	52.86710115
2067	51.99822564
3824	50.64961634
2137	49.26312626
3538	47.7814427
2474	47.15846249

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Could someone independently run OPR calculations for Carson

1024	67.94699488
868	64.39937013
973	59.72708602
225	57.21656682
2052	57.06823258
610	56.94982187
2122	56.15330503
2590	54.44241751
5895	54.13186804
41	52.82497403
2067	51.82418186
3824	50.55946533
2137	49.55923262
3538	47.71879089
2474	47.06784238
1918	47.06371556
4028	45.59624045
904	45.41944435
1718	45.29367738
1625	43.90561045
4362	43.58606725
2996	43.53157842
2655	43.28570403
525	43.20450209
2403	43.1175526
2771	42.92284815
3970	42.72891288
135	42.57181239
5907	42.13118592
1987	41.79576813
4264	41.54625885
2486	41.10297812
3688	41.04522675
5167	40.89402704
319	40.27903932
4131	40.17573866
1619	39.56191031
2485	37.35922029
1533	36.90397632
1137	36.73476528
6098	35.99548457
233	34.91407358
6144	34.34974789
5663	32.20977958
5913	31.95709232
60	31.8850688
1156	31.25624534
1258	30.90491415
5084	30.58091357
5332	28.5437442
5454	28.51064153
1126	28.40910065
2761	28.31012272
2445	28.30861263
1159	26.93097019
2202	26.2979391
5879	25.36524886
5712	25.16147429
6025	24.98551622
2978	24.36624945
3352	22.86652503
4592	22.59269553
11	22.58569118
4121	22.17481602
296	22.09641455
1939	21.41832877
4026	20.96318342
4135	20.9368346
5572	20.35016881
3021	20.24024128
2526	19.82585398
5897	19.74217565
746	18.84443104
51	17.41725192
1369	7.854537579

[Nathan Streeter]

Is a post-CMP update coming? :-)

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

Is a post-CMP update coming? :-)

I normally update within a day of the 2834 scouting database being updated, because the "world results" page uses event information from it. So if the answer to this question is yes, I will update within a day after the 2834 update. If there will be no update to the 2834 database, I will have to rework some things, so it will take me a bit longer.

If the 2834 database isn't updated by Friday, I'll rework my database and publish an update no later than Saturday.

[Caleb Sykes]

I have uploaded a final update to this database. This update has tabs for each of the championship divisions. I have also removed all of the championships preview tabs.

I hope everyone who downloaded it found it useful. I am planning to maintain this effort in the upcoming years. I am also planning to spend some more time developing the interface to reach the level of the 1114 and 2834 databases in future versions. I will also be looking to develop new metrics next year, depending on what the game is and what data the API provides. Keep an eye out for a thread near the end of build season next year where I will be asking for feedback on what everyone would like to see calculated.

Thanks to teams 1114 and 2834 for providing my inspiration for creating this. Special thanks to Ether for providing the CSV files on which my entire database is founded. None of this would have been possible without him.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Unless someone notices an error, I will not be releasing another update until after championships.

Update on updates.
By request, I have decided to release an update on Friday night with division preview tabs. I might also do match/ranking predictions using components, but no guarantees.

[Caleb Sykes]

I would just like to remind everyone that the changed tower strength at champs means that some of these metrics lose value if they are applied to the championship events. Specifically, teleop Tower Captured, eOPR1, and eOPR2 should not be directly applied to the championship event. I will create a new metric ceOPR (championship elimination OPR) in my Friday update which will be calculated in the same way eOPR1 is currently calculated, but modified to account for the change in tower strength.

[joeojazz]

Hi I was looking at your scouting info and didn't see my team 5712 in the championship preview. Also wanted to say how great this is and how useful this will be when checking out alliance partners and opponents.

[Caleb Sykes]

Originally Posted by joeojazz

Hi I was looking at your scouting info and didn't see my team 5712 in the championship preview.

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

Per request, I have also added a "championship preview" sheet which contains data on the best event (by OPR) of every team registered for championships as of 5PM CST on 4/18/2016. There is no new information on this sheet, all data are copied directly from the "world results" sheet. I am not planning to release updates if/when the championship team list changes, so you will have to update this sheet yourself.

Your team will be included in this tab in the Friday update.

[Caleb Sykes]

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

[jajabinx124]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

Just wanna say thanks for making this scouting database and making a championship preview version of it! This makes pre-scouting much easier and these stats will be useful.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes

I have uploaded a new championships preview database. It contains an updated teams list in the "championship preview" sheet, as well as divisional preview sheets. All results from these 9 sheets are taken directly from the "world results" sheet.

Additionally, I have created a new metric ceOPR (championship eliminations OPR), which can be used to predict elimination scores at championships. This value is equivalent to (total points) + 2.5*(subtracted tower strength) + 2.5*(cross defense count). This value is only in the world results, championship preview, and divisional preview sheets, not in the previous events.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

You are quite the awesome person for doing this. Thank you kindly.

[mitchellzone]

Caleb, you're awesome for doing this, thanks!

One suggestion: On the championship preview tab, it would be great to have an additional column with what division each team is in. This would allow us to just ingest the data once into any analytics platform and very quickly group the teams into divisions by that field rather than having to load them each separately and join them.

Thanks again!

/mike