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Unread 20-05-2016, 13:06
Lil' Lavery Lil' Lavery is offline
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

Would anyone be able to see how many of the 2 year teams were NASA grant recipients?
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Unread 20-05-2016, 13:13
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

That distribution looks very "Weibullian", which is what I would expect. It's always cool when that happens.
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Unread 20-05-2016, 17:58
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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Originally Posted by Chris Hibner View Post
That distribution looks very "Weibullian", which is what I would expect. It's always cool when that happens.
Yes. Based on the (invalid) assumption that teams don't revive, the "mortality rate" between years 1 and 2 is 13-14%. (I used the data posted in the sustainability thread.) A bit of curve fitting indicates that the mortality rate declines by about 15% of its value each year. After year 9 there's a lot of scatter in the data, but the trend still looks good.
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Unread 20-05-2016, 21:42
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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Originally Posted by GeeTwo View Post
Yes. Based on the (invalid) assumption that teams don't revive, the "mortality rate" between years 1 and 2 is 13-14%. (I used the data posted in the sustainability thread.) A bit of curve fitting indicates that the mortality rate declines by about 15% of its value each year. After year 9 there's a lot of scatter in the data, but the trend still looks good.
The results I got were similar, though the averages take into account older teams which plays with the values some.
The overall trend looks about like what you're describing though:

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Unread 23-05-2016, 11:23
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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The results I got were similar, though the averages take into account older teams which plays with the values some.
Quite. I began by dropping all of the teams founded prior to 2000. There are many teams which no longer exist which do not show up in TBA at all. Maize Craze was reportedly played by 28 teams, but there are only 8 teams listed as having been founded in 1992, seven of which still compete. The survival rate of 1992 teams is therefore more like 25% than 87%. Dropping 1992-1999 was a bit arbitrary, but looking at your curve, I probably should have dropped a couple more years.
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Unread 23-05-2016, 12:45
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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There are many teams which no longer exist which do not show up in TBA at all. Maize Craze was reportedly played by 28 teams, but there are only 8 teams listed as having been founded in 1992, seven of which still compete.
I'm pretty sure TBA will only return teams that survived into the static team number age (teams that folded before that wouldn't have been available in the FIRST records for TBA to import, and any data that did exist wouldn't have made much sense). So the cutoff would be: all teams on TBA competed in at least the 1998 season.

I couldn't find any quick examples to dispute that, although I didn't to an exhaustive search.
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Unread 23-05-2016, 13:13
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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I'm pretty sure TBA will only return teams that survived into the static team number age (teams that folded before that wouldn't have been available in the FIRST records for TBA to import, and any data that did exist wouldn't have made much sense). So the cutoff would be: all teams on TBA competed in at least the 1998 season.

I couldn't find any quick examples to dispute that, although I didn't to an exhaustive search.
I found a few, including 98, which only shows up in 1994; TBA does not even have a name for FRC98. Match scores are only present in TBA from 2002 forward, so I speculate that any team which did not win any awards and folded before 2002 is not represented. (FRC98 won rookie all star in '94).
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Unread 20-05-2016, 13:35
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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Would anyone be able to see how many of the 2 year teams were NASA grant recipients?
I created this chart from the data posted in a google sheet on this thread. If you add the column I suggest in my reply post that includes this chart, and then search the teams that dropped out after two years, and then find some data source for NASA grants ... Whew, sounds like too much work right now for me.
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Unread 20-05-2016, 16:32
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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Would anyone be able to see how many of the 2 year teams were NASA grant recipients?
My first team, 3677, was a NASA grant team. The team dropped after year two due to financial issues... and I left the team for another school.
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Unread 21-05-2016, 21:31
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

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Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery View Post
Would anyone be able to see how many of the 2 year teams were NASA grant recipients?
It's hard to be certain of a team's sponsors, but working under the assumption that NASA grant recipients would generally be good about making sure to credit NASA, I took a look at how many of the 2 year teams had NASA in their official team name.

I ignored teams founded in 2015 and 2016, which left me with 484 2 year teams. Of those teams, 105 - just under 22% - listed NASA in their team name. I can't think of any good way to identify teams that got the NASA grant for a single year, competed for one year without it, and then folded.
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Unread 22-05-2016, 00:17
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Re: pic: Histogram of # years active for teams that have dropped out

It would be great to see this graph overlap one that showcases lead/founding mentor attrition rate.

I know that after my first three seasons I was greatly fatigued. It wasn't until the team found a co-coach that I had more of a wind to complete this season. Not to say that I am completely fatigued following this season - I am on CD following the gauntlet run that is known as the MSHSL State Tournament!
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