FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory

[BrennanB]

I too can find a method with correlation bias by applying a pattern to most datasets!

[OccamzRazor]

I predicted that next year we will probably have trailers/mobile goals again but I agree the pattern of odd shaped game pieces is also very likely. Trailers somewhat fall into that pattern since we have not had a trailer/mobile goal game since 2009. In modern FRC if there is no ball game piece next year then 2018 will have a ball.... Says a 25 year trend that we have never once gone 2 years in a row without a ball shaped game piece!

Since we have already had toroids, sacks, plastic boxes, tetras, whatever 2009 counts as since it was sort of a ball, frisbees, and noodles I wonder who can guess what the next weird game piece will be?

[Tom Ore]

Originally Posted by OccamzRazor

...who can guess what the next weird game piece will be?

Lawn Gnome

[wajirock]

Originally Posted by OccamzRazor

I wonder who can guess what the next weird game piece will be?

Egg shaped objects would be cool. I can only imagine the crazy, out of the box mechanisms that teams will build.

[Roboshant]

Originally Posted by wajirock

Egg shaped objects would be cool. I can only imagine the crazy, out of the box mechanisms that teams will build.

Footballs or Rugby balls?

[Roboshant]

Another thing I noticed was the cycling of scaling or something similar every 3 years:

2016-FIRST Stronghold: Scale the Tower

2015-Recycle Rush: none

2014-Aerial Assist: none

2013-Ultimate Ascent: Climbing pyramid

2012-Rebound Rumble: none

2011-Logomotion:none

2010-Breakaway: scaling the center two things

2009-Lunacy: none

2008-FIRST Overdrive: none

2007-Rack 'n Roll: climbing or lifting other robots

2006-Aim High: none

2005-Triple Play: none

2004-FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar: scaling the center bar

2003-Stack Attack: none

Scaling is the only thing that I found that cycles every 3 years so far, but I think there are more. The purpose of the 3 year cycle would be so that students in their 4th year could apply knowledge from their first year to a similar task, and also nostalgia. I call this theory "FIRST 3 year Nostalgia/Application Game Cycle"

[pandamonium]

First has pretty much told us they want to keep using themes. Assuming this and the pattern is true I believe that next years game will be footballs. They would probably add a challenging endgame with this as footballs seem easy to score.


More interesting though than the game piece itself are the rules surrounding it. If we are allowed to hold 1 game piece 3 game pieces or unlimited game pieces. The GDC could recycle tubes, tetras, or giant balls and just allow us to hold 3 game pieces at a time and the robots used would change drastically.

[Roboshant]

What a game and robots could look like for a football themed game: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=140673

[Ringo5tarr]

Okay, So I've gone and made what I think is some pretty decent predictions on what next years game will contain, I'm not positive on the exacts, but we can make some clear guesses. So we can look at the past games (As we already have been):

So we can obviously assume that there are going to be balls, (although we can't completely rule it out) not only because next year's cycle position is the "unusual game piece", but because each year goes on and off ball based gameplay, the only outlier being Lunacy, which had balls, but also had the hex-based trailer targets.
However, there is a game piece I suspect we will be using in the game: inflatables, there were three years in between Rack and Roll and LogoMotion, and it's been five years since logo, I would say chances are decent for a Inflatable based game.
We can also guess that the field will be either open or have much less obstacles than the last two years. In the past, rarely was there more than a single year in between games with anymore than games with nothing more than a single large obstacle in the center of the field. In fact, the last two years have been surprising in how many obstacles have been in their games, Recycle Rush is the only game in the last 14 years to have a divider that neither team could pass (which I would argue made the game what it was: more of a puzzle than action, but that's a discussion for another thread), and after such a strange outlier in the series of games, one would expect a much more open game with stronghold, but yet again, FIRST turned the tables on us, however the defenses are not as unique as Recycle Rush's impassable divider, they're still very much more complicated than FRC's typical fare. I would say that there's a fair chance that there might be nothing on the feild this year.
Also, endgame, we can always expect endgame, but it seems to simultaneously be the easiest and hardest to predict, I would give a 75% percent chance that the endgame will have something to do with rising off the floor, whether by using a bar or lifting allied robots. It's the 25% however, that makes this fun, there have been 3 out of 12 games with endgames that weren't using rising as a main mechanic:Overdrive, Lunacy, and Rebound Rumble. They didn't come in a pattern, so trying to guess from that is useless, and all three of them use fundamentally different ideas for their endgames, I find Lunacy's the most interesting and the one I want to see replicated.

TL,DR: What we can guess is:
1. No Balls
1a. Inflatables?
2. Open field/Few obstacles
3. 75% chance of a lifting based endgame
3a. Other 25% chance unpredictable

If you notice something missing or wrong with my analysis of past years, please tell me, I plan on updating and expanding to find more exact assumptions and more subjects to observe about each game

[SpaceBiz]

Originally Posted by Ringo5tarr

Okay, So I've gone and made what I think is some pretty decent predictions on what next years game will contain, I'm not positive on the exacts, but we can make some clear guesses. So we can look at the past games (As we already have been):

So we can obviously assume that there are going to be balls, (although we can't completely rule it out) not only because next year's cycle position is the "unusual game piece", but because each year goes on and off ball based gameplay, the only outlier being Lunacy, which had balls, but also had the hex-based trailer targets.
However, there is a game piece I suspect we will be using in the game: inflatables, there were three years in between Rack and Roll and LogoMotion, and it's been five years since logo, I would say chances are decent for a Inflatable based game.
We can also guess that the field will be either open or have much less obstacles than the last two years. In the past, rarely was there more than a single year in between games with anymore than games with nothing more than a single large obstacle in the center of the field. In fact, the last two years have been surprising in how many obstacles have been in their games, Recycle Rush is the only game in the last 14 years to have a divider that neither team could pass (which I would argue made the game what it was: more of a puzzle than action, but that's a discussion for another thread), and after such a strange outlier in the series of games, one would expect a much more open game with stronghold, but yet again, FIRST turned the tables on us, however the defenses are not as unique as Recycle Rush's impassable divider, they're still very much more complicated than FRC's typical fare. I would say that there's a fair chance that there might be nothing on the feild this year.
Also, endgame, we can always expect endgame, but it seems to simultaneously be the easiest and hardest to predict, I would give a 75% percent chance that the endgame will have something to do with rising off the floor, whether by using a bar or lifting allied robots. It's the 25% however, that makes this fun, there have been 3 out of 12 games with endgames that weren't using rising as a main mechanic:Overdrive, Lunacy, and Rebound Rumble. They didn't come in a pattern, so trying to guess from that is useless, and all three of them use fundamentally different ideas for their endgames, I find Lunacy's the most interesting and the one I want to see replicated.

TL,DR: What we can guess is:
1. No Balls
1a. Inflatables?
2. Open field/Few obstacles
3. 75% chance of a lifting based endgame
3a. Other 25% chance unpredictable

If you notice something missing or wrong with my analysis of past years, please tell me, I plan on updating and expanding to find more exact assumptions and more subjects to observe about each game

Only 4 out of the past 9 games have involved a "lifting" endgame. Because so many before 2008 have involved "lifting" while less do now, and considering the fact there has also only been an endgame one out of the past three years, I would have trouble believing there is anything more than a 50% chance of a "lifting endgame". I would also argue that lifting endgame vs non-lifting endgame is not a good way to categorize endgames. I would say "scale/climb" "Get on a platform" "other" or "none" might be a better way.

"Get on a platform" includes any game where you score points by finishing in a resting position on any elevated surface. This includes any game ranging from stronghold to rebound rumble or harder in difficulty. I would consider stronghold a two endgame game (scale/climb and get on a platform)

The more significant pattern I see in the more recent years is a 3-year climb/scale cycle. Starting in 2010 (Breakaway), 2013 (Ultimate accent), and 2016 (Stronghold). Even if this ends up not being an exact pattern, in my mind it indicates there is a very low chance that the endgame will all of the sudden involve climbing/scaling two years in a row.

I more or less agree with the rest of your predictions and think this was overall very well thought out. I am just hoping there is as much strategic depth next year as there was this year. Also some more rough defense would be nice. (Football anyone?)

[EricH]

Got a few chart details for ya.

'04 was NOT a shooting game, for the robots. Herding, yes. But not shooting--for the robots. (Humans did all the scoring of small balls.) Not sure I'd class it as "many" obstacles, as the mobile goals got out of the way pretty quickly--more of a center obstacle game.

'05 endgame was not a rise-off-floor, but a "get into this zone" endgame. That particular variety of endgame also featured in '01 and '02, but hasn't been seen since as an endgame; it's an automode these days. Also, what you're calling a "Center Obstacle" happens to be a scoring position, one of 9 on the field. Probably best classed as a "many obstacle" game, because any one of the 9 could snag unwary robots.

'07 is debatable as to whether the endgame is "rise off floor" or "climb ramp". In theory, the former worked; in practice, it was the latter (with partner help).

'10 endgame was a "rise off floor" class.

Just to fill in the aforementioned '02 and '01...

'02: Zone Zeal. "Shooting" position--FYI, anything in this slot before '06 needs to be "Shooting/Dumping" due to the rules restricting shooting ('06 was the first pure shooting game). Endgame, "Get In The Zone". Field setup, OPEN; game pieces, soccer balls and mobile goals. (Yes, the goals were points in this one, as I recall.)

'01: Diabolical Dynamics. This should be in "Unusual Piece", but it doesn't fit that category as the game pieces were balls, shot and dumped and placed (depending on size--there were two sizes). "Endgame" was "Get in the Zone". Field was open with a center divider and a ramp. Now, that "endgame" is very loosely defined because the entire game was the endgame--get your robots in one zone, your goals onto the central tipping ramp, and get as many balls in or on the goals as you could, then E-stop for points multipliers. Oh, and I forgot. 4v0. You thought '15 was bad.

I could do a couple more but I've already taken enough space...



Just as a prediction, the game piece will be either traffic cones or footballs. Those two have been "on the list" for at least as long as frisbees (by "on the list" I mean "speculated as game objects").

[roddonfire]

The next year should be an "unusual" game. A water game would be pretty unusual? Water game 2017 confirmed!

[GeeTwo]

Originally Posted by roddonfire

The next year should be an "unusual" game. A water game would be pretty unusual? Water game 2017 confirmed!

Actually, by unusual (or, in my own word, Bizzaro) I was thinking of something more like this, super-sized.

[6101 Robert]

Another user also noticed a correlation between the Vex Robotics Competition and FRC. Going back to 2014, each competition has shared fundamental elements. The VRC game of 2016-2017 involves throwing "stars" (aka jumbo-sized board game jacks) and inflated cubes across the field. This confirms your "unusual object" prediction.

[Hitchhiker 42]

On the other hand, there is a thing called confirmation bias. To some extent, I think we're all trying to stretch next year's game based on patterns that might not actually exist.