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  #31   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-13-2016, 11:39 AM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by plnyyanks View Post
For completeness sake, I ran my script going to back to 2007 (as far back as TBA has ranking data)
So awesome Phil ! Thanks for the statistics
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Unread 03-07-2016, 10:27 AM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.
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Unread 03-07-2016, 10:29 AM
Kevin Leonard Kevin Leonard is offline
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.
That number is, however, lower than in previous years, especially 2015. I was very surprised by the number of upsets this weekend, and I wonder if Car Nack was onto something, or if Week 1 was a fluke.
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Unread 03-07-2016, 11:16 AM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.
Using a binomial distribution with n=17 and p = .25, the probability that 9 or more first seeds would win in week 1 is only 1.24%. Unless later week events behave much differently than the early week events, there is currently a better chance of flipping a coin and predicting the outcome correctly 6 times in a row than there is of Car Nack's prediction being correct. Although that has happened, so all hope is not yet lost for this prediction.
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Unread 03-07-2016, 11:34 AM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

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Originally Posted by Bob Steele View Post
I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???
I don't think this strategy would ever work out...

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Unread 03-21-2016, 02:28 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.
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Unread 03-21-2016, 02:36 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackN View Post
Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.
Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.
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Last edited by dodar : 03-21-2016 at 02:38 PM.
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Unread 03-21-2016, 02:56 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by dodar View Post
Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.
So far, we're at a higher percentage of events won by #1 than all but 2010, 2011, and 2015.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plnyyanks View Post
Code:
Overall 363 of 628 events were won by top seeds (57.8025477707 percent)
  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped
  In 2010, 35 of 50 events were won by top seeds (70.0 percent). 5 events were skipped
  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped
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Unread 03-21-2016, 03:29 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Car Nack is a witch.
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Unread 03-21-2016, 03:44 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by tr6scott View Post
Car Nack is a witch.
Does Car Nack float?
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Unread 03-21-2016, 03:45 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley View Post
Does Car Nack float?
When the 2017 Water Game happens we will find out.
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Unread 03-21-2016, 03:47 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley View Post
Does Car Nack float?
What really matters is if Car Nack weighs the same as a duck.
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Unread 05-01-2016, 08:15 PM
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Data wins arguments.
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Car Nack View Post
Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.
Looks like Car Nack was a little off on this one. By my script from above...

Code:
Overall 446 of 762 events were won by top seeds (58.530183727 percent)
  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped
  In 2010, 36 of 51 events were won by top seeds (70.5882352941 percent). 4 events were skipped
  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped
  In 2016, 82 of 134 events were won by top seeds (61.1940298507 percent). 0 events were skipped
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Unread 05-02-2016, 12:17 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Thanks for crunching the numbers Phil !

What are the statistics for the #1 Alliance at the District Championships and FRC Champs level ?

Sometimes CarNack is wrong. Nonetheless, I will still constantly follow CarNack's predictions !
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Unread 03-27-2017, 03:18 PM
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Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Car Nack did not repeat the prediction regarding #1 seeds for 2017.

How are #1 Alliances faring this year?
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