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Unread 07-09-2018, 09:30 AM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

We're trying something new on FUN tonight. 10 teams will be competing in a live IRI auction draft and drafting their own alliances. Each team will receive ₪100 to spend and create their own alliance with as many teams as possible.

Let us know who you think should go for top dollar and who might be a low value steal! Watch and chat starting at 8:30pm ET at https://www.twitch.tv/firstupdatesnow

You can even play along! After the draft, you can pick your own alliance paying the same prices that were set live with your own ₪100. This draft form will open shortly after the draft is completed and you will have until 3pm ET Thursday to submit your picks.

The winner will receive a Devastator 3 Keyboard from Cooler Master if there is a tie then we will randomly select one of the winners.

Pick your own IRI alliance at: http://tinyurl.com/iridraft2018

Hope to see you online tonight and ready to pick your own IRI alliance!
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Last edited by Tyler Olds : 07-09-2018 at 09:19 PM.
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Unread 07-09-2018, 10:31 AM
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XaulZan11 XaulZan11 is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

This sounds pretty cool. Do you have any more info on the rules/scoring?
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Unread 07-09-2018, 10:52 AM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XaulZan11 View Post
This sounds pretty cool. Do you have any more info on the rules/scoring?
Points are awarded to teams based on the following attributes:

Qualification Rounds
Each Match Win: 2 Points
Each Match Tie: 1 Point

Alliance Captain: Equal to 17 minus the ALLIANCE CAPTAIN number (e.g. 14 points for ALLIANCE #3 Captain)

Draft Order Acceptance: Equal to 17 minus the Draft Order Acceptance Number (e.g. 12 points for the Team that is 5th to accept an invitation, teams selected as the 4th robot receive 0 points)

Elimination Rounds:
Each Match Win: 5 Points (robot must play in the match in order to qualify for points)

If a team does not show up to IRI you will be assigned a team of similar value.
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Unread 07-09-2018, 07:09 PM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Starting in about 10 minutes! Come join us! https://www.twitch.tv/firstupdatesnow
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Unread 07-09-2018, 09:33 PM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Wow! Thank you to everyone for the incredible turnout for the live show! You can catch it on Twitch or will be uploaded on YouTube this evening!

The Pick'em League is now open for your picks through 3pm ET Thursday. The winner will receive a Devastator 3 Keyboard from Cooler Master http://tinyurl.com/iridraft2018

Keep in mind that this was a random auction draft, some teams went for great value because auction teams didn't have money left over (cough 2590).

Spoiler for Draft Values in order of the draft:

Team # Draft Value
4499 9
469 12
4028 23
2468 6
1746 8
118 43
302 16
133 21
217 34
2826 9
2481 33
4587 23
1102 8
2614 19
4967 7
3641 10
340 20
2168 17
20 8
1731 8
3478 11
225 26
3940 7
4265 11
195 43
1533 14
1806 16
88 8
5254 13
2451 10
33 12
4944 6
829 6
5406 44
3452 11
3357 35
2337 14
2791 16
1640 17
2363 8
2771 8
359 18
245 10
3538 27
865 9
868 13
1720 5
1747 16
3707 22
1024 6
384 6
1710 4
624 10
319 17
2013 5
6800 5
3847 4
234 4
694 10
1619 17
1218 4
2834 4
67 18
1741 5
494 9
2056 33
708 3
2655 8
1706 25
2590 5


Spoiler for Draft Values in team numerical order:

Team # Draft Value
20 8
33 12
67 18
88 8
118 43
133 21
195 43
217 34
225 26
234 4
245 10
302 16
319 17
340 20
359 18
384 6
469 12
494 9
624 10
694 10
708 3
829 6
865 9
868 13
1024 6
1102 8
1218 4
1533 14
1619 17
1640 17
1706 25
1710 4
1720 5
1731 8
1741 5
1746 8
1747 16
1806 16
2013 5
2056 33
2168 17
2337 14
2363 8
2451 10
2468 6
2481 33
2590 5
2614 19
2655 8
2771 8
2791 16
2826 9
2834 4
3357 35
3452 11
3478 11
3538 27
3641 10
3707 22
3847 4
3940 7
4028 23
4265 11
4499 9
4587 23
4944 6
4967 7
5254 13
5406 44
6800 5
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Unread 07-10-2018, 09:28 AM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Live Draft Results (thanks for Danny from 2491)

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Unread 07-10-2018, 09:31 AM
Kevin Leonard Kevin Leonard is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Can we re-submit the pick'em if we've already submitted but have re-thought our selections
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Unread 07-10-2018, 09:35 AM
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Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

The draft was a lot of fun to watch. It was pretty clear to me that early teams in the draft were being overvalued, and teams later in the draft were being undervalued, so I set out to show this.

Here is a plot of all teams' Elo versus their draft value:


Elo clearly has some shortcomings as a summary statistic of a team's value for this draft, most notable in my mind is the lack of accounting for the additional RPs, but it'll do fine as a starting point.

Next, let's define a team's overvalue as their draft value minus their predicted value according to the trendline above. Note that I did try other fits to the Elo vs draft value graph, as well as using Elo rank versus draft value. The best fit according to R^2 was an exponential fit using Elo rank, but the R^2 was only 0.482, so I stuck with the linear fit on Elo value for simplicity.

According to this definition of overvalue, at the extremes we have 2590 who was undervalued by 20 FUN dollars, and 5406 who was overvalued by 22 dollars.

We can then take this definition of overvalue and compare it to the draft order to get the following graph:


The first few teams drafted on average were overvalued by about 5 dollars, and the last few teams were undervalued by about 5 dollars. Essentially none of the first 12 teams selected were undervalued, and none of the last 20 teams selected were overvalued (excepting 1706 who was just a money burn). Don't burn your money early in auctions people.

Last edited by Caleb Sykes : 07-10-2018 at 09:40 AM. Reason: Don't want to lose my future mate: https://xkcd.com/833/
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Unread 07-10-2018, 09:42 AM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard View Post
Can we re-submit the pick'em if we've already submitted but have re-thought our selections
Technically you could with another gmail address. Otherwise I don't want to open it up to crap tons of spam.

Also here's all the submissions so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...V5c/edit#gid=0

This sheet will look different over time. Big shout out to Jaci who is driving the scoring compilation of this.
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Unread 07-10-2018, 09:55 AM
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyler Olds View Post
Live Draft Results (thanks for Danny from 2491)
That looks a lot like my sheet! (it's all good)


TBC Points Estimations



TBC and Average bracket challenge predictions combo




Exclusively based on bracket predictions.


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Unread 07-10-2018, 10:28 AM
Lil' Lavery Lil' Lavery is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
Don't burn your money early in auctions people.
Woah now! Don't burn you money early in this auction format. Nomination processes and roster sizes play massive roles in auction strategy. For the FUN auction, the nomination order was random (which led to teams like 1619, 2056, and 2590 looming as late pick-ups) and there was no limit on roster size (you could buy as many team's as your budget permitted). The strategy a fantasy owner uses would change significantly if there was a roster cap or if there was a different method to nominate teams for bids.
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Unread 07-10-2018, 10:36 AM
Tyler Olds Tyler Olds is offline
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery View Post
Woah now! Don't burn you money early in this auction format. Nomination processes and roster sizes play massive roles in auction strategy. For the FUN auction, the nomination order was random (which led to teams like 1619, 2056, and 2590 looming as late pick-ups) and there was no limit on roster size (you could buy as many team's as your budget permitted). The strategy a fantasy owner uses would change significantly if there was a roster cap or if there was a different method to nominate teams for bids.
This so very true, it completely depends on the format. We based ours off of the show that the software was originally intended for (Night Attack <> ) and talking to the developer they said that the format that they use works well for live shows and production value.

In other auction drafts, or if RNG put all the heavy hitters in front it might not have been a good strategy. We will be doing this again in the future (Chezy Champs anybody), so it will be interesting to see how that dynamic changes on each live draft. I'm just happy the software worked in amazing fashion for a live show .
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Unread 07-10-2018, 10:39 AM
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery View Post
Woah now! Don't burn you money early in this auction format. Nomination processes and roster sizes play massive roles in auction strategy. For the FUN auction, the nomination order was random (which led to teams like 1619, 2056, and 2590 looming as late pick-ups) and there was no limit on roster size (you could buy as many team's as your budget permitted). The strategy a fantasy owner uses would change significantly if there was a roster cap or if there was a different method to nominate teams for bids.
To build on this, I've done a ton of fantasy football auctions and even under the same exact format (scoring, league size, roster size...), the values can significantly vary. Sometimes the first few players go for way too much but other times they are amazing values as people are still figuring out values.
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Unread 07-10-2018, 10:41 AM
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery View Post
Woah now! Don't burn you money early in this auction format. Nomination processes and roster sizes play massive roles in auction strategy. For the FUN auction, the nomination order was random (which led to teams like 1619, 2056, and 2590 looming as late pick-ups) and there was no limit on roster size (you could buy as many team's as your budget permitted). The strategy a fantasy owner uses would change significantly if there was a roster cap or if there was a different method to nominate teams for bids.
Yeah, I could have been more clear, how about:
Don't burn money generally, and in an auction format like this, an easy way to do this is to spend too much too early, so tread carefully.
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Unread 07-10-2018, 11:47 AM
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Re: Live IRI Auction Draft Tonight (Play & Win!)

When I did the IRI Auction draft in 2013 it was done over two days with roster and budget limits. It took a lot of time and effort to do. I would not recommend doing it without a program.
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