Go to Post Chiefdelphi is a great resource for all of FIRST to use over the years and has grown into a community that has taken a life of it's own. - Koko Ed [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > FIRST > General Forum
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Reply
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
  #1   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 05:33 PM
Joe Johnson's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Johnson Joe Johnson is offline
Engineer at Medrobotics
AKA: Dr. Joe
FRC #0088 (TJ2)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: May 2001
Rookie Year: 1996
Location: Raynham, MA
Posts: 2,699
Joe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond repute
The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I know, I know, I KNOW... Fuel gods now walk among us.

The 40kpa Club is real and its membership will grow as the season progresses.

I've done some analysis of the TBA data. 937 teams competed in Week3. Here is a list of the top 10 teams (i.e. the top 1%) in terms of average pressure during qualification matches (not that THEY scored the pressure points necessarily but the alliance they were on scored that much).
  1. 118 53kpa avg #1 seed @ txho => 0.90 avg Bonus RP per match
  2. 195 46kpa avg #1 seed @ nytr => 0.75 avg Bonus RP per match
  3. 1986 44kpa avg #2 seed @ mokc => 0.78 avg Bonus RP per match
  4. 4613 42kpa avg #1 seed @ ausp => 0.91 avg Bonus RP per match
  5. 1690 41kpa avg #1 seed @ isde4 => 0.80 avg Bonus RP per match
  6. 254 36kpa avg #1 seed @ casf => 0.40 avg Bonus RP per match
  7. 971 31kpa avg #2 seed @ casf => 0.40 avg Bonus RP per match
  8. 2648 31kpa avg #11 seed @ marea => 0.08 avg Bonus RP per match ???
  9. 125 31kpa avg #2 seed @ mabos => 0.42 avg Bonus RP per match
  10. 2481 27kpa avg #1 seed @ ilpe => 0.42 avg Bonus RP per match

With the exception of the 8th ranked team on that list, what do you notice? Rank #1 or #2.

Yeah. That trend it not going away.

It is clear (at least to me) from just one weekend that this year's game is going to quickly sort itself into the haves and the have nots.

No team can get 4 rotors by themselves. 40kpa? It is hard but the best of the best can manage it all on their own. The best of those will score 40kpa and still run a gear or three, their route to a top seed is very clear indeed.

My question for the CD reader is to be realistic and think about how big The 40kpa Club going to get?

Will it stay at 1%? Can it get to 5%? That difference is the difference between 1 and 4 per division at Worlds.

I think 1 per division is a recipe for a boring Worlds and a lucky division that ends up with 2 (by random assignment of divisions) will probably have an easy time on Einstien.

Having 4 per division at Worlds is a totally different story. I think this will lead to a semblance of parity and things could get exciting with fuel taking a much higher position in the strategy of the game.

What do you think?

How big will the club get? Is my analysis spot on or rubbish?

Do tell...

Dr. Joe J.
__________________
Joseph M. Johnson, Ph.D., P.E.
Mentor
Team #88, TJ2
Reply With Quote
  #2   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 05:37 PM
Loveless Loveless is offline
Registered User
no team
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Omaha
Posts: 4
Loveless is an unknown quantity at this point
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Could you do this for elimination matches at regionals too?
Reply With Quote
  #3   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 06:53 PM
StAxis's Avatar
StAxis StAxis is offline
Mentor/Drive Coach
AKA: Zach CH
FRC #1902 (Exploding Bacon)
Team Role: Mechanical
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Rookie Year: 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 164
StAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud ofStAxis has much to be proud of
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I would expect that it settles around the 2-3% range. I don't expect many of those top shooters to pick the next best shooter though. Building an alliance for 4 rotors and 40kpa will not be easy but will be the key to winning Einstein. As per usual the best 3rd robot (this year probably a diamond in the rough capable of ~5 gears) will likely win.
__________________
2012 - Engineering Inspiration SFL
2013 - Chairmans SFL, Regional winners SFL
2014 - Engineering Inspiration SFL
2015 - Chairmans GSCR
2016 - Chairmans Rocket City Regional
Reply With Quote
  #4   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:00 PM
D.Allred's Avatar
D.Allred D.Allred is offline
Registered User
FRC #4451 (Rat Rod Robotics)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Greenville, SC
Posts: 231
D.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond reputeD.Allred has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I've been pondering this as well. My guess is there will be no more than 30 to 40 robots in this 40 kPa solo class (the one percenters.)

There are many more good shooters out there that can score in auto and more than 20 kPa total (a.k.a. the tie-breakers.) I don't think this will reach 5 percent of the robot population.

David
Reply With Quote
  #5   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:01 PM
Sperkowsky's Avatar
Sperkowsky Sperkowsky is offline
Professional Multitasker
AKA: Samuel Perkowsky
FRC #2869 (Regal Eagles)
Team Role: Leadership
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Rookie Year: 2014
Location: Bethpage, NY
Posts: 1,983
Sperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond reputeSperkowsky has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I think this will grow over the next few weeks to the top 5-8%.
Reply With Quote
  #6   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:14 PM
Cory's Avatar
Cory Cory is offline
Registered User
AKA: Cory McBride
FRC #0254 (The Cheesy Poofs)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: May 2002
Rookie Year: 2001
Location: Redwood City, CA
Posts: 6,865
Cory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond reputeCory has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to Cory
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sperkowsky View Post
I think this will grow over the next few weeks to the top 5-8%.
Top 5-8% of what? All robots in FRC? All robots at each championship? Robots at each championship with shooters on their robot?

I'm going to assume you don't mean the first option as there's no way 300 teams can hit 40 kPa in a match. I think the 2nd option isn't very plausible. There's no way there will be 40 robots in the world capable of it, IMO.
__________________
2001-2004: Team 100
2006-Present: Team 254
Reply With Quote
  #7   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:22 PM
Joe Johnson's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Johnson Joe Johnson is offline
Engineer at Medrobotics
AKA: Dr. Joe
FRC #0088 (TJ2)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: May 2001
Rookie Year: 1996
Location: Raynham, MA
Posts: 2,699
Joe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory View Post
Top 5-8% of what? All robots in FRC? All robots at each championship? Robots at each championship with shooters on their robot?

I'm going to assume you don't mean the first option as there's no way 300 teams can hit 40 kPa in a match. I think the 2nd option isn't very plausible. There's no way there will be 40 robots in the world capable of it, IMO.
I'm with you Cory. I think we'll be very hard pressed to get 2 per division at the Worlds (that's 2-3%).

It is possible that 5-8% will BELIEVE they belong in the 40kpa Club (i.e. they came close once or twice and would have done it every time but for x, y, or z reason) but actual, no kidding, we just score 40kpa every match Club members?

I keep thinking 1 or 2 per division and that's going to be hard to get to.

Dr. Joe J.
__________________
Joseph M. Johnson, Ph.D., P.E.
Mentor
Team #88, TJ2
Reply With Quote
  #8   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:28 PM
KrazyCarl92's Avatar
KrazyCarl92 KrazyCarl92 is online now
Registered User
AKA: Carl Springli
FRC #0020 (The Rocketeers)(EWCP)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2010
Location: Clifton Park, NY
Posts: 527
KrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
Will it stay at 1%? Can it get to 5%? That difference is the difference between 1 and 4 per division at Worlds.
I don't think that your #'s per division are entirely accurate. You're applying the percentage to # of teams in a division. It should be applied roughly to # of teams in the World (assuming most or all of the 40 kPa solo teams qualify for Champs), then divided by # of divisions to get your # per division.

For example, if 1% of teams can get to this level:
~0.01*3500 = 35 total teams
35 teams / 12 divisions = ~3 per division

If 5% of teams get to this level:
~0.05*3500 = 175 total teams
175 teams / 12 divisions = ~15 per division

The first example is where we currently are based on this week as a sample, and the second seems REALLY ambitious. I bet we land somewhere in the middle, around the realm of 1.5-2%, so 4-6 teams per division that can get the kPa ranking point on their own (maybe only 1-2 @ near 100% though). I anticipate many others will be able to contribute 10-20 kPa on average as a tertiary scoring function for breaking rotor+climb ties.
__________________
[2017-present] FRC 0020 - The Rocketeers
[2016] FRC 5811 - BONDS Robotics
[2010-2015] FRC 0020 - The Rocketeers
Reply With Quote
  #9   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 07:46 PM
jee7s jee7s is offline
Texan FIRSTer, ex-frc2789, ex-frc41
AKA: Jeffrey Erickson
FRC #6357
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Rookie Year: 1997
Location: Dripping Springs, TX
Posts: 321
jee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond reputejee7s has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Throw into this mix the nature of qualifications, and that shooter will be very rare in Houston, which has more Regional feeder competitions. There will be some EI and RCA winners who could be in the pool of potential shooters. But I can't imagine a rookie being in that pool. I'm on a rookie team this year and we rejected shooting in about 5 minutes and rejected fuel all together within one day.

The problem is that the game rules and robot rules actively disincentivize a low goal dump style robot. If you have the technical chops to build the pickup and the hopper, you're likely just going to go to the shooter too. If you don't have that capacity, you'll just defer to gears.

The more interesting question from my perspective is: how many large footprint robots with large hoppers will be retrofitted with low goal dumping mechanisms by Champs? That seems the more plausible route to many fuel handling teams rather than those teams iterating on shooters.
__________________

2013 Alamo Regional Woodie Flowers Finalist Award Winner
2012 Texas Robot Roundup Volunteer of the Year
Texas Robot Roundup Planning Committee, 2012-present
FRC 6357 Mentor, 2016-
FRC 2789 Mentor, 2009-2016 -- 2 Golds, 2 Silvers, 8 Regional Elimination Appearances

FRC 41 Mentor 2007-2009
FLL Mentor 2006
FRC 619 Mentor 2002
FRC 41 Student 1998-2000
Reply With Quote
  #10   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-20-2017, 08:03 PM
Jared Russell's Avatar
Jared Russell Jared Russell is offline
Taking a year (mostly) off
FRC #0254 (The Cheesy Poofs), FRC #0341 (Miss Daisy)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Rookie Year: 2001
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 3,140
Jared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond reputeJared Russell has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
I think 1 per division is a recipe for a boring Worlds and a lucky division that ends up with 2 (by random assignment of divisions) will probably have an easy time on Einstien.
Although the majority of these robots seeded high, several of them were defeated by alliances that pulled off 4 rotors. I expect that more than one "solo 40 kPa club" team will be upset by a non-40 kPa alliance in Championship eliminations (especially if some of the starting gears are removed).
Reply With Quote
  #11   Spotlight this post!  
Unread Yesterday, 09:59 AM
John Bottenberg John Bottenberg is online now
Unregistered User
AKA: JABot67
FRC #2930 (Sonic Squirrels)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Rookie Year: 2007
Location: Redmond, WA
Posts: 402
John Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond reputeJohn Bottenberg has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I have attempted to compile a list of the teams that have been able to get 40 kPa by themselves in match play.

The 40 kPa club as it stands now:

Houston:
118
971
973
987
1574
1678
1690
4613

St. Louis:
33
125
195
225
254 (Yes, they are going to St. Louis)
346
537
1114
1706
1986
2337
2481
2648
3015

Close to achieving this in their next event: 27, 1323, 1619, 3132

Note: 40 kPa was reached by the blue alliance in KC qual 66. To me it looks like this was a joint effort between 1775 and 1984, with 1775 contributing the majority of the fuel, but the match video doesn't show everything so I'm not sure. Anyone who was there care to explain?

I tried to make the list as comprehensive as possible, but with any manual search there is a chance of error. Let me know if the list needs any corrections or updates!

Anyway, it looks like right now Houston's fuel game is weaker than St. Louis's, but at both Championships we will most likely have more than one major fuel scorer per division.
__________________
John Bottenberg - University of Michigan '14 - Microsoft
FLL Team "Dark Matter": 2003-2005
Robofest Team "Dark Matter": 2005-2008
Team 67 Programmer: 2007-2010
Team 3322 Programming Mentor: 2012-2014
Team 2930 Engineering Mentor: 2015-????
Reply With Quote
  #12   Spotlight this post!  
Unread Yesterday, 10:23 AM
Ivan Helmrich's Avatar
Ivan Helmrich Ivan Helmrich is offline
Registered User
FRC #1775 (Tigerbytes)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Rookie Year: 2006
Location: Kansas City, MO
Posts: 74
Ivan Helmrich is a splendid one to beholdIvan Helmrich is a splendid one to beholdIvan Helmrich is a splendid one to beholdIvan Helmrich is a splendid one to beholdIvan Helmrich is a splendid one to beholdIvan Helmrich is a splendid one to behold
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

GKC match 66 was a joint effort to get to 40kPa. We, 1775, put up most of the fuel but the contribution by 1984 was significant. In another match, 1775 also put up 38kPa by ourselves. In that match I think we missed all of our auto shots to the high goal so the 38 was all teleop. I'm working on memory here, a review of video might shed a little more light.

We only load from the top and in a later match we could do nothing with fuel because the opposing alliance dumped all of the hoppers right away. I think top loading only teams will be challenged to do well at high levels unless they can get very close to 40kPa in autonomous.
__________________
“The knowledge of what is relevant, what is not and the skill to cleverly work around or approximate solutions is the essence of engineering.” - James C. King
Reply With Quote
  #13   Spotlight this post!  
Unread Yesterday, 10:41 AM
northstardon northstardon is offline
Robots are just like rocks, right?
AKA: Don Elsenheimer
FRC #2220 (Blue Twilight)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Rookie Year: 2014
Location: Eagan, Minnesota
Posts: 40
northstardon is just really nicenorthstardon is just really nicenorthstardon is just really nicenorthstardon is just really nicenorthstardon is just really nice
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jared Russell View Post
Although the majority of these robots seeded high, several of them were defeated by alliances that pulled off 4 rotors. I expect that more than one "solo 40 kPa club" team will be upset by a non-40 kPa alliance in Championship eliminations (especially if some of the starting gears are removed).
There's the "solo 40kPa club"...and then there's the even more exclusive club that can do it all in auto.

Even if they weren't into gears, I would think that a robot that can hit 40kPa in auto could be a defensive teleop thorn in the side of an opposing alliance that needs 4 rotors to win.
Reply With Quote
  #14   Spotlight this post!  
Unread Yesterday, 10:57 AM
Joe Johnson's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Johnson Joe Johnson is offline
Engineer at Medrobotics
AKA: Dr. Joe
FRC #0088 (TJ2)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: May 2001
Rookie Year: 1996
Location: Raynham, MA
Posts: 2,699
Joe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Johnson has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

More charts and the excel spreadsheet.





Charts tell a pretty compelling story at least to my eyes.

Data is available in the spreadsheet. What does the data say to you?

Dr. Joe J.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	AverageFuelVsPercentile.JPG
Views:	20
Size:	51.4 KB
ID:	22092  Click image for larger version

Name:	BonusRPvAfgFuel.JPG
Views:	30
Size:	67.6 KB
ID:	22093  
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx TBA$@#_RankData_Week3_2017-03-21 data.xlsx (155.8 KB, 19 views)
__________________
Joseph M. Johnson, Ph.D., P.E.
Mentor
Team #88, TJ2
Reply With Quote
  #15   Spotlight this post!  
Unread Yesterday, 11:51 AM
carpedav000's Avatar
carpedav000 carpedav000 is offline
Studenting is hard, but worth it!
AKA: David Carpenter
no team (Jerry-Rigg school of DuctTapeology)
Team Role: Mechanical
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Rookie Year: 2010
Location: Greenwood, IN
Posts: 605
carpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond reputecarpedav000 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: The 40kpa Club - How Many Houston/St. Louis?

I'd watch out for 3940, as they seem to be improving to a point where they may be in the 40kpa club this weekend.
__________________
It isn't shiny enough.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:16 PM.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi