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  #121   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-23-2018, 11:14 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dez View Post
I see there are now 23 returning teams, can you list all of them again?

Thanks!
Sure, here you go:

Code:
10-22-2018
704
840
1056
1537
2198
2909
3192
3561
3681
4617
5076
5402
5536
5585
5597
5912
6082
6179
6330
6380
6409
6733
6734
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Unread 10-23-2018, 11:29 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Not sure when this started happening, but it's looking like Chinese teams have been officially pulled from the China events and started popping up in California and Australia (at least).
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  #123   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-23-2018, 11:39 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by briansmist View Post
Not sure when this started happening, but it's looking like Chinese teams have been officially pulled from the China events and started popping up in California and Australia (at least).
Here is a current tracking of registration for the teams that were registered for a China event on 10/16/2018 (the day before the announcement) compared to 10/22/2018: https://gist.github.com/tervay/2a37f...003de808c28e90

Area breakdown of regionals:

Australia - 17
California - 10
New York - 5 (3646 was coming to NY anyway)
Hawaii - 5
Kansas - 4
Minnesota - 2
British Columbia - 1
Nevada - 1
Utah - 1
Wisconsin - 1
dropped registration - 22
no change in registration - 3
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Unread 10-23-2018, 02:52 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
...
Area breakdown of regionals:
...
California - 10
...
Thanks for the data jtrv. Note, this is just ADDS due to the cancellations. CA is now hosting 20 China teams, and they are not spread out very evenly. CALN just had 3 more added - now has 6 teams out of 26 (24%). That's a lot for a new, small (36 team?) event with a waitlist. Yet the two largest CA events CASD and CADA (66 team events) both only have 1 China team each listed.

I do sympathize with these orphaned teams, but it is not good news for the 60-80 CA teams on waitlists looking for a 2nd play. Teams like 254, 330, 604, 1323, 3309, and 3512 are on that list (yes, us too).

FYI by my calculations 49% of NorCal teams are already booked for a 2nd event, but only 25% of SoCal teams are. (Historical demand is 55-60% 2nd events) Sadly, I'm guessing there will be 20+ SoCal teams unable to get a 2nd event within 500 miles of home.

It's frustrating, but we'll all just have to sit tight and hope for the best. I do not envy the RDs jobs right now. And we can't even go to Idaho again (30-40 openings) 'cause it is week 5, same as 1/3 of all the US regionals west of the Rockies.

Last edited by holazola : 10-23-2018 at 02:55 PM. Reason: dyslexia
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Unread 10-23-2018, 03:41 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by holazola View Post
Historical demand is 55-60% 2nd events

Do you have year by year data on the percentage of California teams that play at 2+ regionals. I'm curious to see which direction those numbers are trending, especially since most other regions have seen the 2+ regional rate traditionally be anywhere from 25-40%.
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  #126   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-23-2018, 04:15 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
Do you have year by year data on the percentage of California teams that play at 2+ regionals. I'm curious to see which direction those numbers are trending, especially since most other regions have seen the 2+ regional rate traditionally be anywhere from 25-40%.
Karthik - At home I have a 2017 file and I pieced together the 2018 numbers when looking at the current CA registrations. I'll post it tonight.
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Unread 10-24-2018, 11:40 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Interestingly, as of a couple of days ago, we were "prequalified for the 2019 FIRST Championship", but I guess someone caught the typo.

Still waiting to see if we get in to our home event. We've not been home in a long time - none of our current team members have ever competed at the regional that is two miles down the street from our school.


https://imgur.com/a/VXCnZJj

Does anyone know when they start filling regionals from the waitlist?

Last edited by BSV : 10-24-2018 at 11:53 AM.
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  #128   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-24-2018, 03:11 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik View Post
Do you have year by year data on the percentage of California teams that play at 2+ regionals. I'm curious to see which direction those numbers are trending, especially since most other regions have seen the 2+ regional rate traditionally be anywhere from 25-40%.
OK Here is what I scraped together from data I had. (I'm sure there's much easier ways to pull this through the API, but ...)

Code:
2017				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                120       	42.4%	        120	        26.2%
2	                151	        53.4%	        302	        65.9%
3	                 12	         4.2%	         36	         7.9% 
total	                283	         100%	        458	         100%
				
	      %  teams >1	57.6%	avg plays/team	1.62
				
2018				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                140	        44.7%	        140	        28.3%
2	                164	        52.4%	        328	        66.3%
3	                  9	         2.9%	         27	         5.5%
total	                313	         100%	        495	         100%
				
	      %  teams >1	55.3%	avg plays/team	1.58
				
2018 vs 2017				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                 20	         2.3%	         20	          2.1%
2	                 13	        -1.0%	         26	          0.3%
3	                 -3	        -1.4%	         -9	         -2.4%
total	                 30	                         37	
% growth	         10.6%		                 8.1%	
 
	      %  teams >1	-2.3%	avg plays/team	-3.7%
Other fun facts:

For 2018, 61 of the 495 plays by CA teams were out of state. Basically an entire regional events worth.

For 2019 CA events (to date), the percentage of teams registered for a 2nd event varies hugely by event:
Low: Aerospace Valley Regional with only 12% teams w/ 2nd event
High: Central Valley Regional with fully 71% teams w/ 2nd event!
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Unread 10-24-2018, 04:02 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
Sure, here you go:

Code:
10-22-2018

704     Texas
840     California
1056    Hawaii
1537    New York
2198    Ontario
2909    Indiana
3192    Oregon
3561    Texas
3681    Washington
4617    Ontario
5076    Ontario
5402    Indiana
5536    Georgia
5585    New York
5597    Canada
5912    Ontario
6082    Alberta
6179    China
6330    Ontario
6380    Turkey
6409    Turkey
6733    Texas
6734    Australia
I find it interesting that 6179 did not compete last year, as they are from Shenzhen, China close to where the Chinese regional was last year, but they come back this year to then have the Chinese events cancelled. Luckily it appears that they are already transferred over to the Canadian Rockies Regional to compete at.
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  #130   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-25-2018, 01:50 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by holazola View Post
OK Here is what I scraped together from data I had. (I'm sure there's much easier ways to pull this through the API, but ...)

Code:
2017				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                120       	42.4%	        120	        26.2%
2	                151	        53.4%	        302	        65.9%
3	                 12	         4.2%	         36	         7.9% 
total	                283	         100%	        458	         100%
				
	      %  teams >1	57.6%	avg plays/team	1.62
				
2018				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                140	        44.7%	        140	        28.3%
2	                164	        52.4%	        328	        66.3%
3	                  9	         2.9%	         27	         5.5%
total	                313	         100%	        495	         100%
				
	      %  teams >1	55.3%	avg plays/team	1.58
				
2018 vs 2017				
# Regionals	#  teams	% of teams	#  plays	% of  plays
1	                 20	         2.3%	         20	          2.1%
2	                 13	        -1.0%	         26	          0.3%
3	                 -3	        -1.4%	         -9	         -2.4%
total	                 30	                         37	
% growth	         10.6%		                 8.1%	
 
	      %  teams >1	-2.3%	avg plays/team	-3.7%
Other fun facts:

For 2018, 61 of the 495 plays by CA teams were out of state. Basically an entire regional events worth.

For 2019 CA events (to date), the percentage of teams registered for a 2nd event varies hugely by event:
Low: Aerospace Valley Regional with only 12% teams w/ 2nd event
High: Central Valley Regional with fully 71% teams w/ 2nd event!
I just noticed that the 2017-2018 % drop in teams >1 event (and also the avg plays per team) roughly corresponds to CA team and event growth. We had about 11% growth in the number of active teams, vs only 8% event space growth (added CAAV) which roughly corresponds to the 3% loss of second plays.

For 2019, it's way too early to tell. We have +15% event growth (add CALN and CAMB), and 19 new teams have registered so far, but there are 20+ teams who played 2018 who have not. Plus the unknown final number of out-of-state / international teams to accommodate the cancelled regionals.
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  #131   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 10-28-2018, 07:24 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

3644: Current team registration count (P.S. corrected)
5.6% ahead of last year at this same point (corrected)
Attached is the comparison graph

7770: Current highest rookie team number

26: teams registered for World Championships

1693 (46.5%) : Districts
1951 (53.5%) : Regionals

In progress, 1 or 2 events successfully signed up for:
Regionals:
  • 1462 (75%): 1-event
  • 489 (25%) : 2-events
  • 73 remaining open slots plus Regional reserves
Districts:
  • 425 (25%) : 1-event
  • 1268 (75%): 2-events
  • 296 remaining open slots plus District reserves
Interesting reversal there.

I'll add numbers for relative progress by Districts/Regionals in a few minutes
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

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Views:	50
Size:	94.7 KB
ID:	23624  Click image for larger version

Name:	Registration2-102818.jpg
Views:	55
Size:	101.3 KB
ID:	23625  
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 10-29-2018 at 09:35 AM.
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Unread 10-28-2018, 07:43 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
3512: Current team registration count
4.7% ahead of last year at this same point
Attached is the comparison graph

7770: Current highest rookie team number
Three sevens is lucky.

Which rookie team will get four sevens?

And how many rookie teams will Michigan get for 2019?
20, so far:

Spoiler for Michigan rookies as of 28 Oct:

Code:
7491	Cyber Soldiers	                        Burton, Michigan (USA)
7495	Sacred Heart	                        Mount Pleasant, Michigan (USA)
7501	Golden Eagles	                        Brooklyn, Michigan (USA)
7553	OSTC-Southwest	                        Wixom, Michigan (USA)
7597	Fraser Ramblers	                        Fraser, Michigan (USA)
7598	SCA Constellations	                Wixom, Michigan (USA)
7602	Mason County Central High School	Scottville, Michigan (USA)
7638	Team Sasquatch (The SasqBots)	        Bessemer, Michigan (USA)
7656	MC Hammers	                        Michigan Center, Michigan (USA)
7658	MagiTech	                        Kalamazoo, Michigan (USA)
7660	Fr. Gabriel Richard High School Irish	Ann Arbor, Michigan (USA)
7665	Comets	                                Grand Ledge, Michigan (USA)
7689	WMC Robotics	                        Muskegon, Michigan (USA)
7692	AGBU Manoogian Robotics	                Southfield, Michigan (USA)
7713	North Dickinson	                        Felch, Michigan (USA)
7716	JLW Formula 01 Robotic's Team	        Detroit, Michigan (USA)
7751	The A.E.A.-ALTimate Electric Androids	West Branch, Michigan (USA)
7762	Pilot Robotics	                        Warren, Michigan (USA)
7768	West Iron County Wykons	                Iron River, Michigan (USA)
7769	OS CREW	                                Royal Oak, Michigan (USA)

As of this evening, FiM has assigned 491 teams to 27 district events. 268 teams have been assigned to two events and the remaining 223 have been assigned to one event. TBA (but not the FiM site) shows one more event, in Gaylord, Week 3. FiM has not assigned any teams to Gaylord. The other events are all about 70% full.

Spoiler for 2019 FiM event slots assigned as of 28 Oct:

Code:
Gibraltar	        28
Kettering 1	        27
Southfield	        30
Belleville	        30
Kettering 2	        22
Lakeview	        27
Milford	                34
St. Joseph	        30
Center Line	        27
Detroit	                30
Gaylord	                 0
Gull Lake	        31
Kingsford	        28
Muskegon	        24
Alpena 1	        34
Lincoln	                29
Midland	                33
West Michigan	        29
Alpena 2	        16
East Kentwood	        24
Marysville	        32
Shepherd	        26
Troy	                31
Forest Hills	        20
Lansing	                31
Livonia	                28
Lake Superior State U	29
Traverse City	        29

Seems like Gaylord won't happen UNLESS FiM grows by more than 32 net teams in 2019. Right now we are 17 net teams behind the 2018 total, but there is time for that to change.
.............

edit\ See Mark's comparisons (below) vs. same-date-2017; seems that FiM is ~ +50 YoY team growth, which would make a 28th event (Gaylord or somewhere) necessary.
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Last edited by Richard Wallace : 10-28-2018 at 10:30 PM. Reason: Hmmm....
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Unread 10-28-2018, 10:22 PM
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Re: Registration 2019

Some more numbers comparing with last year at this same time.
(P.S. My Michigan difference (-2) from Richard's current count is probably because I took the FIRST numbers at 11am this morning)

2017 ----- 2018 ----- % Change
--------------------------------
1807 ----- 1951 ----- 8.0% ----- Regionals (less 2017 Texas/New Mexico teams who are now Districts)
197 ------ 201 ------ 2.0% ----- NE
448 ------ 489 ------ 9.2% ----- Michigan
125 ------ 127 ------ 1.6% ----- Mid-Atlantic
127 ------ 124 ----- (-2.4%) --- Chesapeake
78 ------- 79 ------- 1.3% ----- Georgia
64 ------- 67 ------- 4.7% ----- North Carolina
155 ----- 151 ------ (-2.6%) --- Pacific Northwest
49 ------- 58 ------ 18.4% ----- Indiana
65 ------- 37 ----- (-43.1%) --- Israel
163 ----- 173 ------- 6.1% ----- Ontario
173 ----- 193 ----- 11.6% ----- Texas/New Mexico (subtracted from 2017 Regional teams)
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 10-29-2018 at 10:14 PM.
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Unread 10-29-2018, 09:28 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
In progress, 1 or 2 events successfully signed up for:
Regionals:
  • 1462 (75%): 1-event
  • 489 (25%) : 2-events
Districts:
  • 425 (25%) : 1-event
  • 1268 (75%): 2-events
Interesting reversal there.
If a team is waitlisted for a second event, would it show up as a 1-event team here?
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Unread 10-29-2018, 09:54 AM
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Re: Registration 2019

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
If a team is waitlisted for a second event, would it show up as a 1-event team here?
Yes, these are only hard numbers, not desires.
These are teams that are guaranteed play at the event by being officially listed for it.

Remember, not all teams even have their first events yet.
Not all waitlisted teams will get to play at a particular event, or have themselves yet committed to playing there. They are still pretty free to try going elsewhere.
And for many teams there is a certain amount of wishful thinking about fundraising to pay for extra events.
Space at Regionals is also more limited this year because of the three lost China events and the Texas Regionals withdrawing from the pool to become District events (offset somewhat by the teams they took with them).

Regionals:
  • 73 remaining open slots plus Regional reserves
  • 544 potential slots (assumes 10 slots withheld at each Regional)
  • Probably around 100 Regional teams have yet to register for anything, but they will appear.
Using last season final tally as a really, really general guide, we would have had an estimated 58 slots unclaimed, so maybe 480 more first, second (or third) plays will eventually add-in.

Districts:
  • 296 remaining open slots plus District reserves
  • Guaranteed two events
__________________
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 10-29-2018 at 11:40 AM.
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