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#1




MAR District Championship Projections 2017
Per Brian Maher's request (https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...8&postcount=9), I'm projecting the field for the MAR district championship.
I'm following the same methodology used here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=156957 Source code is available here: https://github.com/errorcodexero/standing_predictor Key: Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in out=won't make it ~in=probably going to have enough points ~out=probably won't have enough points bubble=could easily go either way Code:
Bestcase points to make it to district cmp: 34 Worstcase points to make it to district cmp: 92 Best estimate: 52 {'bubble': 56, 'out': 17, '~in': 31, '~out': 10, 'in': 6} 0 in 103  Cybersonics 1 in 303  The T.E.S.T. Team 2 in 4342  Demon Robotics 3 in 747  Flight Crew 4 in 834  SparTechs 5 in 3929  Atomic Dragons 6 ~in 708  Hatters Robotics 7 ~in 219  Team Impact 8 ~in 3974  E=mCD 9 ~in 2590  Nemesis 10 ~in 341  Miss Daisy 11 ~in 1218  Vulcan Robotics 12 ~in 3142  Aperture 13 ~in 5407  Wolfpack Robotics 14 ~in 1257  Parallel Universe 15 ~in 5420  Velocity 16 ~in 5181  La Salle Robotics 17 ~in 25  Raider Robotix 18 ~in 2607  The Fighting RoboVikings 19 ~in 433  Firebirds 20 ~in 6226  Blue Devils 21 ~in 1403  Cougar Robotics 22 ~in 1370  Thermogenesis 23 ~in 365  Miracle Workerz 24 ~in 1811  FRESH 25 ~in 1279  Cold Fusion 26 ~in 1495  Red Devils 27 ~in 2539  Krypton Cougars 28 ~in 75  RoboRaiders 29 ~in 193  MORT Beta 30 ~in 1807  Redbird Robotics 31 ~in 486  Positronic Panthers 32 ~in 293  Team S.P.I.K.E. 33 bubble 5404  Gearaffes 34 bubble 1989  Viking Robotics 35 ~in 222  Tigertrons 36 ~in 272  CyberCrusaders 37 ~out 4454  Artisan Rockets 38 ~out 204  Eastern Robotic Vikings 39 ~in 1923  The MidKnight Inventors 40 bubble 5895  Peddie School Robotics 41 ~in 11  MORT 42 ~out 752  The Chargers 43 bubble 4285  CamoBots 44 ~out 1143  Cruzin' Comets 45 bubble 3637  The Daleks 46 ~out 41  RoboWarriors 47 bubble 225  TechFire 48 bubble 4750  BERT 49 bubble 56  R.O.B.B.E. 50 bubble 5401  Fightin' Robotic Owls 51 ~out 5992  Pirates 52 out 6667  STEM Clippers 53 bubble 1676  The Pascack PIoneers 54 ~out 484  Roboforce 55 bubble 1712  Dawgma 56 bubble 816  Anomaly 57 bubble 223  Xtreme Heat 58 bubble 102  The Gearheads 59 bubble 316  LuNaTeCs 60 bubble 1640  SabBOTage 61 out 3340  UCHS MagneGeeks 62 bubble 4637  BambieBotz 63 bubble 555  Montclair Robotics 64 bubble 1391  The Metal Moose 65 bubble 2180  Zero Gravity 66 bubble 709  Femme Tech Fatale 67 bubble 3314  Mechanical Mustangs 68 out 4281  Bulldogs 69 bubble 5684  Iron Mechs 70 bubble 2458  Team Chaos 71 bubble 5624  TIGER TECH Robotics 72 out 5310  Eagles Apex 73 bubble 203  One TUFF Team (Team United for... 74 bubble 1228  RoboTribe 75 bubble 3167  Mechanical Misfits 76 bubble 2600  Team Falcon 77 bubble 2729  Storm Robotics Team 78 bubble 2554  The WarHawks 79 bubble 4361  Roxbotix 80 out 4373  RooBotics 81 out 6203  Titanium Knights Robotics 82 bubble 1647  Iron Devils 83 bubble 1089  Team Mercury 84 out 321  RoboLancers 85 bubble 5938  Razor Steel Robotics 86 out 304  GWHS Robo Griffins 87 out 1791  T.O.P. Hatters 88 out 5490  The Dark Byte 89 bubble 5113  Combustible Lemons 90 bubble 3151  Cyberstorm 91 bubble 1626  Falcon Robotics 92 out 2559  Normality Zero 93 out 4035  Torbotix 94 bubble 4954  Palindrome Robotics 95 out 423  Simple Machines 96 bubble 4573  SRNJRambotics 97 out 3515  Pneubotic Mustangs 98 bubble 1672  RoboTBirds 99 bubble 2577  Pingry Robotics 100 bubble 2495  Hive Mind 101 out 2095  Direct Current 102 out 1168  Malvern Robotics 103 bubble 2070  Royals 104 bubble 6016  Tiger Robotics 105 out 2234  Alternating Current 106 bubble 5457  Falcobots 107 bubble 4653  Ironmen Robotics 108 bubble 265  Moderate Heat 109 bubble 2191  Flux Core 110 bubble 2016  Mighty Monkey Wrenches 111 bubble 5666  Purple Lightning 112 ~out 6327  Tin Men 113 bubble 224  The Tribe 114 bubble 87  Red Devils 115 bubble 714  Panthera 116 bubble 136  Killer Kardinals 117 bubble 5438  Technological Terrors 118 ~out 5732  ROBOTIGERS 119 ~out 4575  The Tin Mints Last edited by SoftwareBug2.0 : 03232017 at 04:38 PM. Reason: Originally posted input data rather than output; thanks to engunneer for pointing it out. 
#2




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
Interested in how you got these numbers, and if you'd like to compare with mine. The last team I have calculated as a lock right now is Miss Daisy with 78 points, so my "worst case" number I guess would be 78 or 77pts.
The highest ranked team I have locked out is 5992 with 39 points, so 39 or 40 points is the best case cutoff with my numbers (depending on if you want to account for ties). Also, you have the tin mints listed as rank 119 and out but they havn't played yet. 5732 should be in 119th. Something is missing somewhere... My guesstimate of a cutoff would be 58 points but its just a guesstimate, I don't have math or anything behind it. Last edited by Brandon_L : 03232017 at 05:48 PM. 
#3




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
I forget when award point values changed, and when the 1st/2nd year team bonus started, but probably not a big difference.
60th ranked team going into MAR CMP: 2012 (99 teams): 35 points 2013 (109 teams): 42 points 2014 (110 teams): 46 points 2015 (121 teams): 49 points 2016 (120 teams): 46 points ~50th percentile going into MAR CMP: 2012 (99 teams): 44 points 2013 (109 teams): 45 points 2014 (110 teams): 51 points 2015 (121 teams): 49 points 2016 (120 teams): 46 points Mid to high 40's should do it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing 
#4




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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https://github.com/errorcodexero/sta...r/predictor.py It does error on the side of uncertainty when saying a team is "in" vs "~in". It could be improved if that cutoff were calculated in the way that you're doing FRC locks. Similarly, the bounds for "out" versus "~out" also error on the side of saying that there is more uncertainty than there is, and could probably benefit from an adjustment like the one that you have in FRC locks where you assume that all teams will gain at least 4 points per event remaining. As far as the Tin Mints being ranked 119, it's because I've numbered the list 0based rather than 1based. Also, the Tin Mints are actually labeled as "~out" rather than "out". The way that I derive this is basically bogus though: if a team has played 0 events assume they'll get 22 points at each. There are definitely things that could be improved. I'm willing to accept pull requests. 
#5




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
In 2016 46 ranking points was not enough to earn a spot at Lehigh.
The 60th ranked team was 5457 – Falcobots who earned 51 points. (46 plus 5 for Team Age points) They declined to attend. Three other eligible teams declined to attend. The last team invited was 4637  BambieBotz with 48 points. They were ranked 64th. In addition to the Falcobots, the Team Age points bonus made a difference for three other teams. Rookie team 5938  Razor Steel Robotics, earned 45 points plus a 10 point bonus for a total of 55 points. Rookie team 6016  Tiger Robotics, earned 44 points plus a 10 point bonus for a total of 54 points. Second year team 5401  Fightin' Robotic Owls earned 45 points plus a 5 point bonus for 50 points. I think Brandon_L's prediction of 58 is just a little bit high. I think the 60th ranked team will have 54 points. (also just a guesstimate) I was a little surprised only 4 teams declined to attend last year. I do expect that at least that many to decline this year. Depending on the number of decliners, I think teams in the high 40s still have a chance to attend. Interesting note: I count 4 teams currently ranked in the top 10 for 2017 who did not attend district championship last year. (102, 219, 3929, 3974. Although 219 did decline.) 
#6




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
if someone disagrees please correct me to ease my nerves (we're at 48 points..cue Scott with more stats pls) but its looking like the cutoff is going to be somewhere between 50 and 55
its possible for it to be 48 but that would require a ton of teams just under the current cutoff to bomb monty and I find that highly unlikely 
#7




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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#8




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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Bestcase points to make it to district cmp: 43 Worstcase points to make it to district cmp: 67 Best estimate: 52 {'bubble': 32, 'out': 30, '~in': 25, '~out': 9, 'in': 24} 0 in 365  Miracle Workerz 1 in 103  Cybersonics 2 in 303  The T.E.S.T. Team 3 in 4342  Demon Robotics 4 in 5895  Peddie School Robotics 5 in 747  Flight Crew 6 in 834  SparTechs 7 in 272  CyberCrusaders 8 in 5401  Fightin' Robotic Owls 9 in 2607  The Fighting RoboVikings 10 in 3929  Atomic Dragons 11 in 708  Hatters Robotics 12 in 219  Team Impact 13 in 3974  E=mCD 14 in 293  Team S.P.I.K.E. 15 in 2590  Nemesis 16 in 4285  CamoBots 17 in 1640  SabBOTage 18 in 341  Miss Daisy 19 in 1218  Vulcan Robotics 20 in 3142  Aperture 21 in 5407  Wolfpack Robotics 22 in 1257  Parallel Universe 23 in 1391  The Metal Moose 24 ~in 5420  Velocity 25 ~in 5181  La Salle Robotics 26 ~in 25  Raider Robotix 27 ~in 3167  Mechanical Misfits 28 ~in 433  Firebirds 29 ~in 203  One TUFF Team (Team United for... 30 ~in 6226  Blue Devils 31 ~in 4750  BERT 32 ~in 1403  Cougar Robotics 33 ~in 1370  Thermogenesis 34 ~in 1811  FRESH 35 ~in 1279  Cold Fusion 36 ~in 1495  Red Devils 37 ~in 2600  Team Falcon 38 ~in 316  LuNaTeCs 39 ~in 2539  Krypton Cougars 40 ~in 75  RoboRaiders 41 ~in 193  MORT Beta 42 ~in 1807  Redbird Robotics 43 ~in 2729  Storm Robotics Team 44 ~in 1712  Dawgma 45 ~in 486  Positronic Panthers 46 bubble 816  Anomaly 47 bubble 5404  Gearaffes 48 bubble 1989  Viking Robotics 49 ~in 222  Tigertrons 50 ~out 1647  Iron Devils 51 ~out 4454  Artisan Rockets 52 ~out 204  Eastern Robotic Vikings 53 ~in 1923  The MidKnight Inventors 54 ~in 11  MORT 55 ~out 2180  Zero Gravity 56 ~out 752  The Chargers 57 ~out 1143  Cruzin' Comets 58 bubble 3637  The Daleks 59 ~out 41  RoboWarriors 60 bubble 225  TechFire 61 ~out 1089  Team Mercury 62 bubble 56  R.O.B.B.E. 63 out 5992  Pirates 64 out 6667  STEM Clippers 65 bubble 1676  The Pascack PIoneers 66 out 484  Roboforce 67 out 2191  Flux Core 68 bubble 223  Xtreme Heat 69 bubble 102  The Gearheads 70 out 709  Femme Tech Fatale 71 out 5684  Iron Mechs 72 out 1228  RoboTribe 73 out 3340  UCHS MagneGeeks 74 bubble 4637  BambieBotz 75 bubble 555  Montclair Robotics 76 out 1626  Falcon Robotics 77 out 5113  Combustible Lemons 78 bubble 3314  Mechanical Mustangs 79 out 4281  Bulldogs 80 bubble 2458  Team Chaos 81 bubble 5624  TIGER TECH Robotics 82 out 5310  Eagles Apex 83 bubble 6327  Tin Men 84 out 87  Red Devils 85 bubble 2554  The WarHawks 86 bubble 4361  Roxbotix 87 out 3151  Cyberstorm 88 out 5938  Razor Steel Robotics 89 out 224  The Tribe 90 out 4373  RooBotics 91 out 6203  Titanium Knights Robotics 92 out 321  RoboLancers 93 out 304  GWHS Robo Griffins 94 out 1791  T.O.P. Hatters 95 out 5490  The Dark Byte 96 out 2559  Normality Zero 97 out 4035  Torbotix 98 out 5457  Falcobots 99 bubble 4954  Palindrome Robotics 100 out 423  Simple Machines 101 bubble 4573  SRNJRambotics 102 out 3515  Pneubotic Mustangs 103 bubble 1672  RoboTBirds 104 bubble 2577  Pingry Robotics 105 bubble 2495  Hive Mind 106 out 2095  Direct Current 107 out 1168  Malvern Robotics 108 bubble 2070  Royals 109 bubble 6016  Tiger Robotics 110 bubble 4575  The Tin Mints 111 out 2234  Alternating Current 112 bubble 4653  Ironmen Robotics 113 bubble 265  Moderate Heat 114 bubble 2016  Mighty Monkey Wrenches 115 bubble 5666  Purple Lightning 116 bubble 714  Panthera 117 bubble 136  Killer Kardinals 118 bubble 5438  Technological Terrors 119 ~out 5732  ROBOTIGERS 
#9




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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Anybody who is already above you, prequaled, has a history of declining MAR (HoF teams for example), or who is playing in their third event at Montgomery is your best friend right now. 
#10




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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#11




Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017
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