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Unread 03-23-2017, 02:16 PM
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MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Per Brian Maher's request (https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...8&postcount=9), I'm projecting the field for the MAR district championship.

I'm following the same methodology used here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=156957

Source code is available here: https://github.com/errorcodexero/standing_predictor

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 34
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 56, 'out': 17, '~in': 31, '~out': 10, 'in': 6}
0	in	103 - Cybersonics 
1	in	303 - The T.E.S.T. Team 
2	in	4342 - Demon Robotics 
3	in	747 - Flight Crew 
4	in	834 - SparTechs 
5	in	3929 - Atomic Dragons 
6	~in	708 - Hatters Robotics 
7	~in	219 - Team Impact 
8	~in	3974 - E=mCD 
9	~in	2590 - Nemesis 
10	~in	341 - Miss Daisy 
11	~in	1218 - Vulcan Robotics 
12	~in	3142 - Aperture 
13	~in	5407 - Wolfpack Robotics 
14	~in	1257 - Parallel Universe 
15	~in	5420 - Velocity 
16	~in	5181 - La Salle Robotics 
17	~in	25 - Raider Robotix 
18	~in	2607 - The Fighting RoboVikings 
19	~in	433 - Firebirds 
20	~in	6226 - Blue Devils 
21	~in	1403 - Cougar Robotics 
22	~in	1370 - Thermogenesis 
23	~in	365 - Miracle Workerz 
24	~in	1811 - FRESH 
25	~in	1279 - Cold Fusion 
26	~in	1495 - Red Devils 
27	~in	2539 - Krypton Cougars 
28	~in	75 - RoboRaiders 
29	~in	193 - MORT Beta 
30	~in	1807 - Redbird Robotics 
31	~in	486 - Positronic Panthers 
32	~in	293 - Team S.P.I.K.E. 
33	bubble	5404 - Gearaffes 
34	bubble	1989 - Viking Robotics 
35	~in	222 - Tigertrons 
36	~in	272 - Cyber-Crusaders 
37	~out	4454 - Artisan Rockets 
38	~out	204 - Eastern Robotic Vikings 
39	~in	1923 - The MidKnight Inventors 
40	bubble	5895 - Peddie School Robotics 
41	~in	11 - MORT 
42	~out	752 - The Chargers 
43	bubble	4285 - Camo-Bots 
44	~out	1143 - Cruzin' Comets 
45	bubble	3637 - The Daleks 
46	~out	41 - RoboWarriors 
47	bubble	225 - TechFire 
48	bubble	4750 - BERT 
49	bubble	56 - R.O.B.B.E. 
50	bubble	5401 - Fightin' Robotic Owls 
51	~out	5992 - Pirates 
52	out	6667 - STEM Clippers 
53	bubble	1676 - The Pascack PI-oneers 
54	~out	484 - Roboforce 
55	bubble	1712 - Dawgma 
56	bubble	816 - Anomaly 
57	bubble	223 - Xtreme Heat 
58	bubble	102 - The Gearheads 
59	bubble	316 - LuNaTeCs 
60	bubble	1640 - Sab-BOT-age 
61	out	3340 - UCHS MagneGeeks 
62	bubble	4637 - BambieBotz 
63	bubble	555 - Montclair Robotics 
64	bubble	1391 - The Metal Moose 
65	bubble	2180 - Zero Gravity 
66	bubble	709 - Femme Tech Fatale 
67	bubble	3314 - Mechanical Mustangs 
68	out	4281 - Bulldogs 
69	bubble	5684 - Iron Mechs 
70	bubble	2458 - Team Chaos 
71	bubble	5624 - TIGER TECH Robotics 
72	out	5310 - Eagles Apex 
73	bubble	203 - One TUFF Team (Team United for... 
74	bubble	1228 - RoboTribe 
75	bubble	3167 - Mechanical Misfits 
76	bubble	2600 - Team Falcon 
77	bubble	2729 - Storm Robotics Team 
78	bubble	2554 - The WarHawks 
79	bubble	4361 - Roxbotix 
80	out	4373 - RooBotics 
81	out	6203 - Titanium Knights Robotics 
82	bubble	1647 - Iron Devils 
83	bubble	1089 - Team Mercury 
84	out	321 - RoboLancers 
85	bubble	5938 - Razor Steel Robotics 
86	out	304 - GWHS Robo Griffins 
87	out	1791 - T.O.P. Hatters 
88	out	5490 - The Dark Byte 
89	bubble	5113 - Combustible Lemons 
90	bubble	3151 - Cyberstorm 
91	bubble	1626 - Falcon Robotics 
92	out	2559 - Normality Zero 
93	out	4035 - Torbotix 
94	bubble	4954 - Palindrome Robotics 
95	out	423 - Simple Machines 
96	bubble	4573 - SRNJRambotics 
97	out	3515 - Pneubotic Mustangs 
98	bubble	1672 - Robo-T-Birds 
99	bubble	2577 - Pingry Robotics 
100	bubble	2495 - Hive Mind 
101	out	2095 - Direct Current 
102	out	1168 - Malvern Robotics 
103	bubble	2070 - Royals 
104	bubble	6016 - Tiger Robotics 
105	out	2234 - Alternating Current 
106	bubble	5457 - Falcobots 
107	bubble	4653 - Ironmen Robotics 
108	bubble	265 - Moderate Heat 
109	bubble	2191 - Flux Core 
110	bubble	2016 - Mighty Monkey Wrenches 
111	bubble	5666 - Purple Lightning 
112	~out	6327 - Tin Men 
113	bubble	224 - The Tribe 
114	bubble	87 - Red Devils 
115	bubble	714 - Panthera 
116	bubble	136 - Killer Kardinals 
117	bubble	5438 - Technological Terrors 
118	~out	5732 - ROBOTIGERS 
119	~out	4575 - The Tin Mints

Last edited by SoftwareBug2.0 : 03-23-2017 at 04:38 PM. Reason: Originally posted input data rather than output; thanks to engunneer for pointing it out.
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Unread 03-23-2017, 05:45 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Interested in how you got these numbers, and if you'd like to compare with mine. The last team I have calculated as a lock right now is Miss Daisy with 78 points, so my "worst case" number I guess would be 78 or 77pts.

The highest ranked team I have locked out is 5992 with 39 points, so 39 or 40 points is the best case cutoff with my numbers (depending on if you want to account for ties).

Also, you have the tin mints listed as rank 119 and out but they havn't played yet. 5732 should be in 119th. Something is missing somewhere...

My guesstimate of a cutoff would be 58 points but its just a guesstimate, I don't have math or anything behind it.
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Last edited by Brandon_L : 03-23-2017 at 05:48 PM.
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Unread 03-23-2017, 07:43 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

I forget when award point values changed, and when the 1st/2nd year team bonus started, but probably not a big difference.

60th ranked team going into MAR CMP:

2012 (99 teams): 35 points
2013 (109 teams): 42 points
2014 (110 teams): 46 points
2015 (121 teams): 49 points
2016 (120 teams): 46 points

~50th percentile going into MAR CMP:

2012 (99 teams): 44 points
2013 (109 teams): 45 points
2014 (110 teams): 51 points
2015 (121 teams): 49 points
2016 (120 teams): 46 points

Mid to high 40's should do it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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Unread 03-24-2017, 02:15 AM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon_L View Post
Interested in how you got these numbers, and if you'd like to compare with mine. The last team I have calculated as a lock right now is Miss Daisy with 78 points, so my "worst case" number I guess would be 78 or 77pts.

The highest ranked team I have locked out is 5992 with 39 points, so 39 or 40 points is the best case cutoff with my numbers (depending on if you want to account for ties).

Also, you have the tin mints listed as rank 119 and out but they havn't played yet. 5732 should be in 119th. Something is missing somewhere...

My guesstimate of a cutoff would be 58 points but its just a guesstimate, I don't have math or anything behind it.
The algorithm that generates these numbes is in this file:

https://github.com/errorcodexero/sta...r/predictor.py

It does error on the side of uncertainty when saying a team is "in" vs "~in". It could be improved if that cutoff were calculated in the way that you're doing FRC locks.

Similarly, the bounds for "out" versus "~out" also error on the side of saying that there is more uncertainty than there is, and could probably benefit from an adjustment like the one that you have in FRC locks where you assume that all teams will gain at least 4 points per event remaining.

As far as the Tin Mints being ranked 119, it's because I've numbered the list 0-based rather than 1-based. Also, the Tin Mints are actually labeled as "~out" rather than "out". The way that I derive this is basically bogus though: if a team has played 0 events assume they'll get 22 points at each.

There are definitely things that could be improved. I'm willing to accept pull requests.
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Unread 03-24-2017, 11:16 AM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

In 2016 46 ranking points was not enough to earn a spot at Lehigh.

The 60th ranked team was 5457 – Falcobots who earned 51 points. (46 plus 5 for Team Age points) They declined to attend.

Three other eligible teams declined to attend. The last team invited was 4637 - BambieBotz with 48 points. They were ranked 64th.

In addition to the Falcobots, the Team Age points bonus made a difference for three other teams.

Rookie team 5938 - Razor Steel Robotics, earned 45 points plus a 10 point bonus for a total of 55 points.
Rookie team 6016 - Tiger Robotics, earned 44 points plus a 10 point bonus for a total of 54 points.
Second year team 5401 - Fightin' Robotic Owls earned 45 points plus a 5 point bonus for 50 points.

I think Brandon_L's prediction of 58 is just a little bit high. I think the 60th ranked team will have 54 points. (also just a guesstimate)

I was a little surprised only 4 teams declined to attend last year. I do expect that at least that many to decline this year. Depending on the number of decliners, I think teams in the high 40s still have a chance to attend.

Interesting note: I count 4 teams currently ranked in the top 10 for 2017 who did not attend district championship last year. (102, 219, 3929, 3974. Although 219 did decline.)
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Unread 03-26-2017, 06:51 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

if someone disagrees please correct me to ease my nerves (we're at 48 points..cue Scott with more stats pls) but its looking like the cutoff is going to be somewhere between 50 and 55

its possible for it to be 48 but that would require a ton of teams just under the current cutoff to bomb monty and I find that highly unlikely
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Unread 03-27-2017, 08:56 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon_L View Post
if someone disagrees please correct me to ease my nerves (we're at 48 points..cue Scott with more stats pls) but its looking like the cutoff is going to be somewhere between 50 and 55

its possible for it to be 48 but that would require a ton of teams just under the current cutoff to bomb monty and I find that highly unlikely
My 2016 numbers were a little off - I didn't add the rookie points to the mix. And early years didn't have the boosted points for some awards, so some inflation might be expected. So probably closer to the high 40s/low 50s would be my generic guess, but this year seems a bit higher. I imagine the number and performance of the 3rd plays also has a reasonable role depending on the year. So hope for those 3rd plays to siphon off some points, and strong performances from those ranked above you.
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Unread 03-28-2017, 12:25 AM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by scottandme View Post
My 2016 numbers were a little off - I didn't add the rookie points to the mix. And early years didn't have the boosted points for some awards, so some inflation might be expected. So probably closer to the high 40s/low 50s would be my generic guess, but this year seems a bit higher. I imagine the number and performance of the 3rd plays also has a reasonable role depending on the year. So hope for those 3rd plays to siphon off some points, and strong performances from those ranked above you.
Yeah, I agree that they have to get lucky or have a lot of declines. I ran my prediction program again with another week of competition data and it didn't move the expected cutoff at all.

Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 43
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 67
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 32, 'out': 30, '~in': 25, '~out': 9, 'in': 24}
0	in	365 - Miracle Workerz 
1	in	103 - Cybersonics 
2	in	303 - The T.E.S.T. Team 
3	in	4342 - Demon Robotics 
4	in	5895 - Peddie School Robotics 
5	in	747 - Flight Crew 
6	in	834 - SparTechs 
7	in	272 - Cyber-Crusaders 
8	in	5401 - Fightin' Robotic Owls 
9	in	2607 - The Fighting RoboVikings 
10	in	3929 - Atomic Dragons 
11	in	708 - Hatters Robotics 
12	in	219 - Team Impact 
13	in	3974 - E=mCD 
14	in	293 - Team S.P.I.K.E. 
15	in	2590 - Nemesis 
16	in	4285 - Camo-Bots 
17	in	1640 - Sab-BOT-age 
18	in	341 - Miss Daisy 
19	in	1218 - Vulcan Robotics 
20	in	3142 - Aperture 
21	in	5407 - Wolfpack Robotics 
22	in	1257 - Parallel Universe 
23	in	1391 - The Metal Moose 
24	~in	5420 - Velocity 
25	~in	5181 - La Salle Robotics 
26	~in	25 - Raider Robotix 
27	~in	3167 - Mechanical Misfits 
28	~in	433 - Firebirds 
29	~in	203 - One TUFF Team (Team United for... 
30	~in	6226 - Blue Devils 
31	~in	4750 - BERT 
32	~in	1403 - Cougar Robotics 
33	~in	1370 - Thermogenesis 
34	~in	1811 - FRESH 
35	~in	1279 - Cold Fusion 
36	~in	1495 - Red Devils 
37	~in	2600 - Team Falcon 
38	~in	316 - LuNaTeCs 
39	~in	2539 - Krypton Cougars 
40	~in	75 - RoboRaiders 
41	~in	193 - MORT Beta 
42	~in	1807 - Redbird Robotics 
43	~in	2729 - Storm Robotics Team 
44	~in	1712 - Dawgma 
45	~in	486 - Positronic Panthers 
46	bubble	816 - Anomaly 
47	bubble	5404 - Gearaffes 
48	bubble	1989 - Viking Robotics 
49	~in	222 - Tigertrons 
50	~out	1647 - Iron Devils 
51	~out	4454 - Artisan Rockets 
52	~out	204 - Eastern Robotic Vikings 
53	~in	1923 - The MidKnight Inventors 
54	~in	11 - MORT 
55	~out	2180 - Zero Gravity 
56	~out	752 - The Chargers 
57	~out	1143 - Cruzin' Comets 
58	bubble	3637 - The Daleks 
59	~out	41 - RoboWarriors 
60	bubble	225 - TechFire 
61	~out	1089 - Team Mercury 
62	bubble	56 - R.O.B.B.E. 
63	out	5992 - Pirates 
64	out	6667 - STEM Clippers 
65	bubble	1676 - The Pascack PI-oneers 
66	out	484 - Roboforce 
67	out	2191 - Flux Core 
68	bubble	223 - Xtreme Heat 
69	bubble	102 - The Gearheads 
70	out	709 - Femme Tech Fatale 
71	out	5684 - Iron Mechs 
72	out	1228 - RoboTribe 
73	out	3340 - UCHS MagneGeeks 
74	bubble	4637 - BambieBotz 
75	bubble	555 - Montclair Robotics 
76	out	1626 - Falcon Robotics 
77	out	5113 - Combustible Lemons 
78	bubble	3314 - Mechanical Mustangs 
79	out	4281 - Bulldogs 
80	bubble	2458 - Team Chaos 
81	bubble	5624 - TIGER TECH Robotics 
82	out	5310 - Eagles Apex 
83	bubble	6327 - Tin Men 
84	out	87 - Red Devils 
85	bubble	2554 - The WarHawks 
86	bubble	4361 - Roxbotix 
87	out	3151 - Cyberstorm 
88	out	5938 - Razor Steel Robotics 
89	out	224 - The Tribe 
90	out	4373 - RooBotics 
91	out	6203 - Titanium Knights Robotics 
92	out	321 - RoboLancers 
93	out	304 - GWHS Robo Griffins 
94	out	1791 - T.O.P. Hatters 
95	out	5490 - The Dark Byte 
96	out	2559 - Normality Zero 
97	out	4035 - Torbotix 
98	out	5457 - Falcobots 
99	bubble	4954 - Palindrome Robotics 
100	out	423 - Simple Machines 
101	bubble	4573 - SRNJRambotics 
102	out	3515 - Pneubotic Mustangs 
103	bubble	1672 - Robo-T-Birds 
104	bubble	2577 - Pingry Robotics 
105	bubble	2495 - Hive Mind 
106	out	2095 - Direct Current 
107	out	1168 - Malvern Robotics 
108	bubble	2070 - Royals 
109	bubble	6016 - Tiger Robotics 
110	bubble	4575 - The Tin Mints 
111	out	2234 - Alternating Current 
112	bubble	4653 - Ironmen Robotics 
113	bubble	265 - Moderate Heat 
114	bubble	2016 - Mighty Monkey Wrenches 
115	bubble	5666 - Purple Lightning 
116	bubble	714 - Panthera 
117	bubble	136 - Killer Kardinals 
118	bubble	5438 - Technological Terrors 
119	~out	5732 - ROBOTIGERS
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Unread 03-28-2017, 10:19 AM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon_L View Post
if someone disagrees please correct me to ease my nerves (we're at 48 points..cue Scott with more stats pls) but its looking like the cutoff is going to be somewhere between 50 and 55

its possible for it to be 48 but that would require a ton of teams just under the current cutoff to bomb monty and I find that highly unlikely
Having been on that bubble last year, what you're looking for is not a lot of teams to bomb, but a few teams to do really well. You want the finalist to also take 2 awards, teams that have already pre-qualed with a chairman's bid to win the whole thing and awards. The idea is that you want a few teams to hog the points and pass you, rather than spread the points to a lot of teams and have them all pass you.

Anybody who is already above you, prequaled, has a history of declining MAR (HoF teams for example), or who is playing in their third event at Montgomery is your best friend right now.
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Unread 03-28-2017, 12:07 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by kmckay View Post
Having been on that bubble last year, what you're looking for is not a lot of teams to bomb, but a few teams to do really well. You want the finalist to also take 2 awards, teams that have already pre-qualed with a chairman's bid to win the whole thing and awards. The idea is that you want a few teams to hog the points and pass you, rather than spread the points to a lot of teams and have them all pass you.

Anybody who is already above you, prequaled, has a history of declining MAR (HoF teams for example), or who is playing in their third event at Montgomery is your best friend right now.
Yes, I meant for the cutoff to stay at 48 the few teams right below that point right now would have to bomb. So teams like 56, 225. Which if course won't happen. Cutoff is going up. seems like the consensus around here is somewhere near 52
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Unread 04-01-2017, 09:06 PM
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Re: MAR District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by kmckay View Post
Having been on that bubble last year, what you're looking for is not a lot of teams to bomb, but a few teams to do really well. You want the finalist to also take 2 awards, teams that have already pre-qualed with a chairman's bid to win the whole thing and awards. The idea is that you want a few teams to hog the points and pass you, rather than spread the points to a lot of teams and have them all pass you.

Anybody who is already above you, prequaled, has a history of declining MAR (HoF teams for example), or who is playing in their third event at Montgomery is your best friend right now.
Routing interests for bubble team's can get pretty complicated with the qualification performance points based on rankings (since teams can lose points). The simplest rooting interest for bubble teams watching is >2 district teams (303, 1279, 1391, & 1403) which destroy points and lower the cut-off. Also root for 1676, since they are a special case that is qualified for both MAR Champs and Worlds (doesn't hurt your chances at either). The best final for you involves these teams and they certainly all have strong award prospects as well.
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