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Unread 03-19-2017, 07:44 PM
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PNW District Championship Projections 2017

There are two weeks of PNW district events remaining, which means it's a good time to see how the district championship is shaping up.

I've done this the last three years:
2016: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=145965
2015: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=135841
2014: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=128388

The methodology hasn't changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing.

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 33
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 108
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 62, 'out': 8, '~in': 34, '~out': 47, 'in': 4}
0	in	1595 - The Dragons 
1	in	5803 - Apex Robotics 
2	in	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
3	in	2046 - Bear Metal 
4	~in	5920 - VIKotics 
5	~in	4061 - SciBorgs 
6	~in	2907 - Lion Robotics 
7	~in	4513 - Circuit Breakers 
8	~in	4125 - Confidential 
9	~in	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
10	~in	3711 - Iron Mustang 
11	~in	4915 - Spartronics 
12	~in	2990 - Hotwire 
13	~in	4911 - CyberKnights 
14	~in	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 
15	~in	2550 - Skynet 
16	~in	2147 - CHUCK 
17	~in	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap 
18	~in	2148 - Mechaknights 
19	~in	3693 - GearHead Pirates 
20	~in	3588 - the Talon 
21	~in	6076 - Mustangs 
22	~in	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
23	~in	955 - CV Robotics 
24	~in	360 - The Revolution 
25	~in	6129 - Shadle Park 
26	bubble	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
27	bubble	5942 - Warriors 
28	bubble	4980 - Canine Crusaders 
29	~in	6350 - The Enumclaw Hornets 
30	~in	3674 - 4-H Clover Bots 
31	~in	5588 - Holy Names Academy 
32	~in	4173 - Bulldogs 
33	~in	1540 - Flaming Chickens 
34	~in	3219 - TREAD 
35	~in	4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
36	~in	2471 - Team Mean Machine 
37	~in	1294 - Top Gun 
38	~in	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
39	~in	5468 - Chaos Theory 
40	bubble	5827 - Code Purple 
41	~out	4104 - Blackhawks 
42	~out	2923 - Aggies 
43	~in	2928 - Viking Robotics 
44	bubble	6445 - CTEC Robotics 
45	~out	3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
46	bubble	2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
47	bubble	4681 - Murphy's law 
48	bubble	2910 - Jack in the Bot 
49	bubble	6343 - Steel Ridge Robotics 
50	bubble	5198 - Knight Tech 
51	bubble	753 - High Desert Droids 
52	bubble	1778 - Chill Out 
53	bubble	4089 - Stealth Robotics 
54	bubble	5085 - LakerBots 
55	bubble	2557 - SOTAbots 
56	bubble	957 - SWARM 
57	bubble	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
58	bubble	4488 - Shockwave 
59	bubble	5975 - Beta Blues 
60	bubble	1899 - Saints Robotics 
61	bubble	1425 - Error Code Xero 
62	~out	4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
63	~out	3575 - Okanogan FFA 
64	bubble	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
65	~out	2944 - Titanium Tigers 
66	bubble	2605 - Sehome Seamonsters 
67	out	2149 - CV Bearbots 
68	bubble	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
69	bubble	488 - Team XBot 
70	bubble	4918 - The Roboctopi 
71	bubble	4060 - S.W.A.G. 
72	bubble	997 - Spartan Robotics 
73	bubble	3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
74	bubble	2811 - StormBots 
75	bubble	2903 - NeoBots 
76	bubble	3024 - My Favorite Team 
77	bubble	5295 - Aldernating Current 
78	bubble	1432 - Metal Beavers 
79	bubble	6442 - Modern Americans 
80	bubble	5495 - Aluminati 
81	bubble	2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
82	bubble	6443 - Falcons 
83	bubble	4077 - M*A*S*H 
84	bubble	3070 - Team Pronto 
85	bubble	5941 - SPQL 
86	out	3789 - On Track Robotics 
87	out	568 - Nerds of the North 
88	bubble	4043 - NerdHerd 
89	bubble	6437 - The Pacific Quakers 
90	out	2926 - Robo Sparks 
91	bubble	6503 - Iron Dragon 
92	bubble	1258 - SeaBot 
93	bubble	2915 - Pandamonium 
94	~out	6456 - Oregon Trail Academy Wi-Fires 
95	bubble	5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
96	bubble	4512 - BEARbots 
97	bubble	4682 - BraveBots 
98	bubble	2521 - SERT 
99	bubble	5937 - MI-Robotics 
100	bubble	2522 - Royal Robotics 
101	out	5111 - SaxonBots 
102	bubble	3786 - Chargers 
103	out	4726 - Robo Dynasty 
104	~out	6465 - Decipher 
105	bubble	3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
106	out	4120 - Jagwires 
107	bubble	3393 - Horns of Havoc 
108	bubble	2635 - Lake Monsters 
109	bubble	5683 - RAVE 
110	bubble	3049 - BremerTron 
111	bubble	2976 - Spartabots 
112	bubble	1359 - Scalawags 
113	bubble	3218 - Panther Robotics 
114	bubble	4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
115	~out	3636 - Generals 
116	~out	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
117	~out	6696 - Cardinal Dynamics 
118	~out	4205 - ROBOCUBS 
119	~out	4180 - Iron Riders 
120	out	3712 - RoboCats 
121	~out	4057 - STEAMPUNK 
122	~out	2733 - Pigmice 
123	~out	2929 - JAGBOTS 
124	~out	3781 - Cardinal Robotics 
125	~out	3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
126	~out	847 - PHRED 
127	~out	4461 - Ramen 
128	~out	4579 - RoboEagles 
129	~out	4131 - Iron Patriots 
130	~out	2942 - Panda ER 
131	~out	949 - Wolverine Robotics 
132	~out	3812 - Bits & Bots 
133	~out	4683 - Full-metal Robotics 
134	~out	4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
135	~out	3684 - Electric Eagles 
136	~out	2411 - Rebel @lliance 
137	~out	5956 - Falcons 
138	~out	5970 - BeaverTronics 
139	~out	3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
140	~out	3268 - Vahallabots 
141	~out	492 - Titan Robotics Club 
142	~out	1510 - Wildcats 
143	~out	1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
144	~out	2002 - Tualatin Robotics 
145	~out	2374 - Crusader Bots 
146	~out	2412 - Robototes 
147	~out	2555 - RoboRams 
148	~out	2898 - Flying Hedgehogs 
149	~out	3131 - Gladiators 
150	~out	4127 - LoggerBots 
151	~out	4132 - Scotbots 
152	~out	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
153	~out	4692 - Metal Mallards 
154	~out	5748 - Octo π Rates
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Unread 03-20-2017, 11:42 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Thanks for doing this again. Do you remember where the point cut-off ended up last year?

I still really don't understand how it was so much higher in 2015 than 2014 with the same number of teams.
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Unread 03-20-2017, 11:51 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

If I'm recalling correctly it was 62 pts - 65pts!
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Unread 03-20-2017, 11:54 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Eric,
The historical district cutoffs have been 63, 65, 66
If we use 62-67 as a bubble it would look like this with four event to go:

Teams In by Points (68 and Above)
1595 - The Dragons
5803 - Apex Robotics
3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
2046 - Bear Metal
5920 - VIKotics
4061 - SciBorgs
2907 - Lion Robotics
4513 - Circuit Breakers
4125 - Confidential
4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
3711 - Iron Mustang
4915 - Spartronics
2990 - Hotwire
4911 - CyberKnights
4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team...
2550 - Skynet

Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still
1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
1540 - Flaming Chickens
2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats

Teams with a second event still
3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
955 - CV Robotics
6350 - The Enumclaw Hornets
3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
5588 - Holy Names Academy
4173 - Bulldogs
3219 - TREAD
4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
2471 - Team Mean Machine
1294 - Top Gun
4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
5468 - Chaos Theory
5827 - Code Purple
2928 - Viking Robotics
6445 - CTEC Robotics
2930 - Sonic Squirrels
4681 - Murphy's law
2910 - Jack in the Bot
6343 - Steel Ridge Robotics
5198 - Knight Tech
753 - High Desert Droids
1778 - Chill Out
4089 - Stealth Robotics
5085 - LakerBots
2557 - SOTAbots
957 - SWARM
5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
4488 - Shockwave
5975 - Beta Blues
1899 - Saints Robotics
1425 - Error Code Xero
2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
488 - Team XBot
4918 - The Roboctopi
4060 - S.W.A.G.
997 - Spartan Robotics
3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR...
2811 - StormBots
2903 - NeoBots
3024 - My Favorite Team
5295 - Aldernating Current
1432 - Metal Beavers
6442 - Modern Americans
5495 - Aluminati
6443 - Falcons
4077 - M*A*S*H
3070 - Team Pronto
5941 - SPQL
4043 - NerdHerd
6437 - The Pacific Quakers
6503 - Iron Dragon
1258 - SeaBot
2915 - Pandamonium
6456 - Oregon Trail Academy Wi-Fires
5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC
4512 - BEARbots
4682 - BraveBots
2521 - SERT
5937 - MI-Robotics
2522 - Royal Robotics
3786 - Chargers
6465 - Decipher
3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
3393 - Horns of Havoc
2635 - Lake Monsters
5683 - RAVE
3049 - BremerTron
2976 - Spartabots
1359 - Scalawags
3218 - Panther Robotics
4051 - Sabin-Sharks
3636 - Generals
2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
4205 - ROBOCUBS
4180 - Iron Riders
4057 - STEAMPUNK
2733 - Pigmice
2929 - JAGBOTS
3781 - Cardinal Robotics
3876 - Mabton LugNutz
847 - PHRED
4461 - Ramen
4579 - RoboEagles
4131 - Iron Patriots
2942 - Panda ER
949 - Wolverine Robotics
3812 - Bits & Bots
4683 - Full-metal Robotics
4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
3684 - Electric Eagles
2411 - Rebel @lliance
3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
3268 - Vahallabots


Teams with two events below 62 District points.
2148 - Mechaknights
3693 - GearHead Pirates
3588 - the Talon
6076 - Mustangs
360 - The Revolution
6129 - Shadle Park
1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
5942 - Warriors
4980 - Canine Crusaders
4104 - Blackhawks
2923 - Aggies
3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
3575 - Okanogan FFA
2944 - Titanium Tigers
2149 - CV Bearbots
3789 - On Track Robotics
568 - Nerds of the North
2926 - Robo Sparks
5111 - SaxonBots
4726 - Robo Dynasty
4120 - Jagwires
3712 - RoboCats
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Unread 03-20-2017, 12:07 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
Thanks for doing this again. Do you remember where the point cut-off ended up last year?

I still really don't understand how it has so much higher in 2015 than 2014 with the same number of teams.
It is due in part to the change in how qualification points are calculated. In 2014 the qual points were based purely on win-loss points earned. It was possible to earn 24 points if you won all 12 matches and 0 points if you loose all of your matches. It was also possible for more than 1 team to earn 24 or zero points. For 2015 and later they adopted an algorithm that attempts to create a standardized distribution of qualification points. Now the team in 1st place gets 22 points regardless of how many matches they won while the second place team will always get 21 points even if they won the same number of matches as the top qualifier. At the other end of the scale the lowest ranked team always earns 4 points even if they loose all of the matches.

The bigger impact is in the middle as the distribution of the points in the middle of the pack is based on the number of teams at the event. That is compounded by the fact that we switched the max number of teams at an event to create less variation in the number of teams at an event. That was done w/o knowing that FIRST was going to change the qual points calculation in part to equalize the points pool between the events. IE the variation in number of teams meant that you were more likely to earn more points at a smaller event than at a larger event.
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Unread 03-20-2017, 04:33 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by InFlight View Post
Eric,
The historical district cutoffs have been 63, 65, 66
If we use 62-67 as a bubble it would look like this with four event to go:
...
For the sake of comparison, here's the total number of teams in each bin, where each row is the label in your list, and the column is the label in my list:
Code:
in      ~in     bubble  ~out    out     InFlight's label
0       13      57      24      0       Teams with a second event still
0       6       3       6       8       Teams with two events below 62 District points.
4       12      0       0       0       Teams In by Points (68 and Above)
0       1       2       0       0       Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still
0       2       0       17      0       None
An here it is in long form, with what teams they are specified:
Code:
(None, '~in')
        [2147, 3223]
(None, '~out')
        [492, 1510, 1571, 2002, 2374, 2412, 2555, 2898, 3131, 4127, 4132, 4662, 4692, 5748, 5956, 5970, 6696]
('Teams In by Points (68 and Above)', 'in')
        [1595, 2046, 3238, 5803]
('Teams In by Points (68 and Above)', '~in')
        [2550, 2907, 2990, 3711, 4061, 4125, 4450, 4495, 4513, 4911, 4915, 5920]
('Teams with a second event still', 'bubble')
        [488, 753, 948, 957, 997, 1258, 1359, 1425, 1432, 1778, 1899, 2521, 2522, 2557, 2605, 2635, 2811, 2903, 2910, 2915, 2930, 2976, 3024, 3049, 3070, 3218, 3393, 3574, 3786, 3826, 4043, 4051, 4060, 4077, 4089, 4488, 4512, 4681, 4682, 4918, 5085, 5198, 5295, 5450, 5495, 5683, 5827, 5937, 5941, 5975, 5977, 6343, 6437, 6442, 6443, 6445, 6503]
('Teams with a second event still', '~in')
        [955, 1294, 2471, 2928, 3219, 3663, 3674, 4173, 4309, 4469, 5468, 5588, 6350]
('Teams with a second event still', '~out')
        [847, 949, 2411, 2733, 2906, 2929, 2942, 3268, 3636, 3673, 3684, 3781, 3812, 3876, 4057, 4110, 4131, 4180, 4205, 4461, 4579, 4683, 6456, 6465]
('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', 'bubble')
        [1983, 4980, 5942]
('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', 'out')
        [568, 2149, 2926, 3712, 3789, 4120, 4726, 5111]
('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', '~in')
        [360, 2148, 3588, 3693, 6076, 6129]
('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', '~out')
        [2923, 2944, 3220, 3575, 4104, 4608]
("Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still", 'bubble')
        [1318, 2980]
("Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still", '~in')
        [1540]
I am inclined to agree with you that my estimated point cutoff may be somewhat low; it historically has been. On the other hand, it's usually not far off.

Last edited by SoftwareBug2.0 : 03-20-2017 at 04:40 PM.
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Unread 03-22-2017, 07:07 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lando_Live View Post
If I'm recalling correctly it was 62 pts - 65pts!
In 2016 the 64th ranked team before districts (5588) had 58 district points.
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Unread 03-22-2017, 10:55 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by cobbie View Post
In 2016 the 64th ranked team before districts (5588) had 58 district points.
We, 5588, were the last team in but we were ranked 65th before DCMP and only got a slot due to a decline.

Last edited by Mr V : 03-22-2017 at 10:57 PM.
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Unread 03-23-2017, 11:35 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

This is neat! Can you generate a similar prediction for MAR?
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Unread 03-23-2017, 02:17 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Maher View Post
This is neat! Can you generate a similar prediction for MAR?
Your wish is my command: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s....php?p=1663677
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Unread 03-23-2017, 06:38 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr V View Post
We, 5588, were the last team in but we were ranked 65th before DCMP and only got a slot due to a decline.
While you did only get a slot due to a decline, there was a team (2980) who won chariman's with 44 district points, so you were rank 64th.
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Now that the week 4 events, here's my updated projection:

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 48
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 89
Best estimate: 54
{'bubble': 54, 'out': 35, '~in': 31, '~out': 16, 'in': 19}
0	in	1595 - The Dragons 
1	in	5803 - Apex Robotics 
2	in	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
3	in	4915 - Spartronics 
4	in	2046 - Bear Metal 
5	in	4488 - Shockwave 
6	in	1425 - Error Code Xero 
7	in	5920 - VIKotics 
8	in	2990 - Hotwire 
9	in	2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
10	in	2550 - Skynet 
11	in	1294 - Top Gun 
12	in	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
13	in	1778 - Chill Out 
14	in	4061 - SciBorgs 
15	in	6445 - CTEC Robotics 
16	in	2907 - Lion Robotics 
17	in	2928 - Viking Robotics 
18	in	3674 - 4-H Clover Bots 
19	~in	4513 - Circuit Breakers 
20	~in	955 - CV Robotics 
21	~in	5198 - Knight Tech 
22	~in	4125 - Confidential 
23	~in	1540 - Flaming Chickens 
24	~in	5827 - Code Purple 
25	~in	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
26	~in	753 - High Desert Droids 
27	~in	3711 - Iron Mustang 
28	~in	2811 - StormBots 
29	~in	5588 - Holy Names Academy 
30	~in	5468 - Chaos Theory 
31	~in	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
32	~in	4911 - CyberKnights 
33	~in	2910 - Jack in the Bot 
34	~in	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 
35	~in	2147 - CHUCK 
36	~in	957 - SWARM 
37	~in	997 - Spartan Robotics 
38	~in	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap 
39	~in	5085 - LakerBots 
40	~in	492 - Titan Robotics Club 
41	~in	2148 - Mechaknights 
42	~in	3693 - GearHead Pirates 
43	~in	3070 - Team Pronto 
44	~in	2557 - SOTAbots 
45	~in	3588 - the Talon 
46	~in	6076 - Mustangs 
47	~in	4681 - Murphy's law 
48	~in	2605 - Sehome Seamonsters 
49	bubble	4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
50	bubble	4077 - M*A*S*H 
51	bubble	360 - The Revolution 
52	bubble	6129 - Shadle Park 
53	~out	4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
54	~out	1899 - Saints Robotics 
55	~out	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
56	~out	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
57	out	5942 - Warriors 
58	~out	4980 - Canine Crusaders 
59	bubble	6350 - The Enumclaw Hornets 
60	~out	4043 - NerdHerd 
61	~in	4173 - Bulldogs 
62	~out	5495 - Aluminati 
63	~out	4089 - Stealth Robotics 
64	bubble	3219 - TREAD 
65	bubble	2471 - Team Mean Machine 
66	out	4104 - Blackhawks 
67	out	2923 - Aggies 
68	out	2903 - NeoBots 
69	out	3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
70	out	847 - PHRED 
71	out	2976 - Spartabots 
72	bubble	5970 - BeaverTronics 
73	bubble	6343 - Steel Ridge Robotics 
74	bubble	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
75	bubble	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
76	bubble	5975 - Beta Blues 
77	out	3218 - Panther Robotics 
78	out	5941 - SPQL 
79	out	6442 - Modern Americans 
80	out	6503 - Iron Dragon 
81	out	4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
82	out	2521 - SERT 
83	out	3575 - Okanogan FFA 
84	out	2944 - Titanium Tigers 
85	out	2149 - CV Bearbots 
86	bubble	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
87	bubble	488 - Team XBot 
88	bubble	4918 - The Roboctopi 
89	bubble	4060 - S.W.A.G. 
90	out	2522 - Royal Robotics 
91	out	4682 - BraveBots 
92	out	6456 - Oregon Trail Academy Wi-Fires 
93	bubble	3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
94	out	4512 - BEARbots 
95	bubble	3024 - My Favorite Team 
96	bubble	5295 - Aldernating Current 
97	bubble	1432 - Metal Beavers 
98	bubble	2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
99	out	4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
100	bubble	6443 - Falcons 
101	out	3268 - Vahallabots 
102	out	3789 - On Track Robotics 
103	out	568 - Nerds of the North 
104	out	4057 - STEAMPUNK 
105	bubble	6437 - The Pacific Quakers 
106	bubble	2374 - Crusader Bots 
107	out	2926 - Robo Sparks 
108	bubble	1258 - SeaBot 
109	bubble	2915 - Pandamonium 
110	out	5683 - RAVE 
111	bubble	6696 - Cardinal Dynamics 
112	bubble	5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
113	out	4180 - Iron Riders 
114	bubble	5937 - MI-Robotics 
115	out	5111 - SaxonBots 
116	bubble	3786 - Chargers 
117	out	4726 - Robo Dynasty 
118	~out	6465 - Decipher 
119	out	3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
120	bubble	3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
121	out	4120 - Jagwires 
122	bubble	2412 - Robototes 
123	bubble	3393 - Horns of Havoc 
124	bubble	2635 - Lake Monsters 
125	bubble	4692 - Metal Mallards 
126	bubble	3049 - BremerTron 
127	bubble	1359 - Scalawags 
128	out	4683 - Full-metal Robotics 
129	out	949 - Wolverine Robotics 
130	bubble	2898 - Flying Hedgehogs 
131	bubble	4127 - LoggerBots 
132	bubble	3636 - Generals 
133	bubble	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
134	bubble	4205 - ROBOCUBS 
135	bubble	1510 - Wildcats 
136	out	3712 - RoboCats 
137	bubble	2733 - Pigmice 
138	bubble	2929 - JAGBOTS 
139	bubble	3781 - Cardinal Robotics 
140	bubble	3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
141	bubble	2555 - RoboRams 
142	bubble	4461 - Ramen 
143	bubble	2002 - Tualatin Robotics 
144	bubble	4579 - RoboEagles 
145	bubble	4131 - Iron Patriots 
146	bubble	4132 - Scotbots 
147	bubble	2942 - Panda ER 
148	~out	5748 - Octo π Rates 
149	~out	3812 - Bits & Bots 
150	~out	3684 - Electric Eagles 
151	~out	1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
152	~out	2411 - Rebel @lliance 
153	~out	5956 - Falcons 
154	~out	3131 - Gladiators
The estimated point cutoff has gone up from 52 to 54.
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Unread 03-27-2017, 12:58 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

This is probably a dumb question, and I assume it must mean I still don't understand FRC Locks (and so is maybe a question for Brandon), but...

Do you know why your predictive method shows a cutoffs in the mid 50s, and frclocks shows teams in red (locked out?) all the way up to 63 points? I had assumed that teams frclocks showed as red were eliminated in even the most favorable distribution of the remaining points, but that doesn't seem consistent with what your method is showing (which has worked really well in the past).
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Unread 03-27-2017, 01:54 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
This is probably a dumb question, and I assume it must mean I still don't understand FRC Locks (and so is maybe a question for Brandon), but...

Do you know why your predictive method shows a cutoffs in the mid 50s, and frclocks shows teams in red (locked out?) all the way up to 63 points? I had assumed that teams frclocks showed as red were eliminated in even the most favorable distribution of the remaining points, but that doesn't seem consistent with what your method is showing (which has worked really well in the past).
It looks to me like FRC Locks thinks that there are only 39 slots at the PNW championship. I believe he has confused the number of teams attending the district championship and the number of teams that advance to worlds from the district.
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Unread 03-27-2017, 10:17 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

In terms of Locks there are 38 teams that are definitely in.

There are 26 remaining openings, with two more Chairman’s Award Winners regardless of points.

There are 7 Chairmen’s Award Winners
1595 - The Dragons
4125 - Confidential
1540 - Flaming Chickens
2557 - SOTAbots
1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
2521 - SERT
2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats


31 Teams with over 70 District Points
5803 - Apex Robotics
3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
4915 - Spartronics
2046 - Bear Metal
4488 - Shockwave
1425 - Error Code Xero
5920 - VIKotics
2990 - Hotwire
2930 - Sonic Squirrels
2550 - Skynet
1294 - Top Gun
3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
1778 - Chill Out
4061 - SciBorgs
6445 - CTEC Robotics
2907 - Lion Robotics
2928 - Viking Robotics
3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
4513 - Circuit Breakers
955 - CV Robotics
5198 - Knight Tech
5827 - Code Purple
4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
753 - High Desert Droids
3711 - Iron Mustang
2811 - StormBots
5588 - Holy Names Academy
5468 - Chaos Theory
4469 - R.A.I.D.
4911 - CyberKnights
2910 - Jack in the Bot

There are 23 teams with two events, between 69 and 51 district points that are still in the contention to various degrees.

Currently there are 56 teams with a second event this week. There are all so 10 third event teams that can compete for the Chairmen's award still.

There are 35 teams with two events and below 50 District Points that are in all likelihood out.
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Last edited by InFlight : 03-27-2017 at 11:07 AM.
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