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#1




PNW District Championship Projections 2017
There are two weeks of PNW district events remaining, which means it's a good time to see how the district championship is shaping up.
I've done this the last three years: 2016: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=145965 2015: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=135841 2014: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=128388 The methodology hasn't changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing. Key: Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in out=won't make it ~in=probably going to have enough points ~out=probably won't have enough points bubble=could easily go either way Code:
Bestcase points to make it to district cmp: 33 Worstcase points to make it to district cmp: 108 Best estimate: 52 {'bubble': 62, 'out': 8, '~in': 34, '~out': 47, 'in': 4} 0 in 1595  The Dragons 1 in 5803  Apex Robotics 2 in 3238  Cyborg Ferrets 3 in 2046  Bear Metal 4 ~in 5920  VIKotics 5 ~in 4061  SciBorgs 6 ~in 2907  Lion Robotics 7 ~in 4513  Circuit Breakers 8 ~in 4125  Confidential 9 ~in 4450  Olympia Robotics Federation 10 ~in 3711  Iron Mustang 11 ~in 4915  Spartronics 12 ~in 2990  Hotwire 13 ~in 4911  CyberKnights 14 ~in 4495  Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 15 ~in 2550  Skynet 16 ~in 2147  CHUCK 17 ~in 3223  Robotics Of Central Kitsap 18 ~in 2148  Mechaknights 19 ~in 3693  GearHead Pirates 20 ~in 3588  the Talon 21 ~in 6076  Mustangs 22 ~in 3663  CPR  Cedar Park Robotics 23 ~in 955  CV Robotics 24 ~in 360  The Revolution 25 ~in 6129  Shadle Park 26 bubble 1983  Skunk Works Robotics 27 bubble 5942  Warriors 28 bubble 4980  Canine Crusaders 29 ~in 6350  The Enumclaw Hornets 30 ~in 3674  4H Clover Bots 31 ~in 5588  Holy Names Academy 32 ~in 4173  Bulldogs 33 ~in 1540  Flaming Chickens 34 ~in 3219  TREAD 35 ~in 4309  4H Botsmiths 36 ~in 2471  Team Mean Machine 37 ~in 1294  Top Gun 38 ~in 4469  R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 39 ~in 5468  Chaos Theory 40 bubble 5827  Code Purple 41 ~out 4104  Blackhawks 42 ~out 2923  Aggies 43 ~in 2928  Viking Robotics 44 bubble 6445  CTEC Robotics 45 ~out 3220  Mechanics of Mayhem 46 bubble 2930  Sonic Squirrels 47 bubble 4681  Murphy's law 48 bubble 2910  Jack in the Bot 49 bubble 6343  Steel Ridge Robotics 50 bubble 5198  Knight Tech 51 bubble 753  High Desert Droids 52 bubble 1778  Chill Out 53 bubble 4089  Stealth Robotics 54 bubble 5085  LakerBots 55 bubble 2557  SOTAbots 56 bubble 957  SWARM 57 bubble 5450  St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 58 bubble 4488  Shockwave 59 bubble 5975  Beta Blues 60 bubble 1899  Saints Robotics 61 bubble 1425  Error Code Xero 62 ~out 4608  Duct Tape Warriors 63 ~out 3575  Okanogan FFA 64 bubble 1318  Issaquah Robotics Society 65 ~out 2944  Titanium Tigers 66 bubble 2605  Sehome Seamonsters 67 out 2149  CV Bearbots 68 bubble 948  NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 69 bubble 488  Team XBot 70 bubble 4918  The Roboctopi 71 bubble 4060  S.W.A.G. 72 bubble 997  Spartan Robotics 73 bubble 3826  Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 74 bubble 2811  StormBots 75 bubble 2903  NeoBots 76 bubble 3024  My Favorite Team 77 bubble 5295  Aldernating Current 78 bubble 1432  Metal Beavers 79 bubble 6442  Modern Americans 80 bubble 5495  Aluminati 81 bubble 2980  The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 82 bubble 6443  Falcons 83 bubble 4077  M*A*S*H 84 bubble 3070  Team Pronto 85 bubble 5941  SPQL 86 out 3789  On Track Robotics 87 out 568  Nerds of the North 88 bubble 4043  NerdHerd 89 bubble 6437  The Pacific Quakers 90 out 2926  Robo Sparks 91 bubble 6503  Iron Dragon 92 bubble 1258  SeaBot 93 bubble 2915  Pandamonium 94 ~out 6456  Oregon Trail Academy WiFires 95 bubble 5977  Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 96 bubble 4512  BEARbots 97 bubble 4682  BraveBots 98 bubble 2521  SERT 99 bubble 5937  MIRobotics 100 bubble 2522  Royal Robotics 101 out 5111  SaxonBots 102 bubble 3786  Chargers 103 out 4726  Robo Dynasty 104 ~out 6465  Decipher 105 bubble 3574  HIGH TEKERZ 106 out 4120  Jagwires 107 bubble 3393  Horns of Havoc 108 bubble 2635  Lake Monsters 109 bubble 5683  RAVE 110 bubble 3049  BremerTron 111 bubble 2976  Spartabots 112 bubble 1359  Scalawags 113 bubble 3218  Panther Robotics 114 bubble 4051  SabinSharks 115 ~out 3636  Generals 116 ~out 2906  Sentinel Prime Robotics 117 ~out 6696  Cardinal Dynamics 118 ~out 4205  ROBOCUBS 119 ~out 4180  Iron Riders 120 out 3712  RoboCats 121 ~out 4057  STEAMPUNK 122 ~out 2733  Pigmice 123 ~out 2929  JAGBOTS 124 ~out 3781  Cardinal Robotics 125 ~out 3876  Mabton LugNutz 126 ~out 847  PHRED 127 ~out 4461  Ramen 128 ~out 4579  RoboEagles 129 ~out 4131  Iron Patriots 130 ~out 2942  Panda ER 131 ~out 949  Wolverine Robotics 132 ~out 3812  Bits & Bots 133 ~out 4683  Fullmetal Robotics 134 ~out 4110  DEEP SPACE NINERS 135 ~out 3684  Electric Eagles 136 ~out 2411  Rebel @lliance 137 ~out 5956  Falcons 138 ~out 5970  BeaverTronics 139 ~out 3673  C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 140 ~out 3268  Vahallabots 141 ~out 492  Titan Robotics Club 142 ~out 1510  Wildcats 143 ~out 1571  CALibrate Robotics 144 ~out 2002  Tualatin Robotics 145 ~out 2374  Crusader Bots 146 ~out 2412  Robototes 147 ~out 2555  RoboRams 148 ~out 2898  Flying Hedgehogs 149 ~out 3131  Gladiators 150 ~out 4127  LoggerBots 151 ~out 4132  Scotbots 152 ~out 4662  Byte Sized Robotics 153 ~out 4692  Metal Mallards 154 ~out 5748  Octo π Rates 
#2




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Thanks for doing this again. Do you remember where the point cutoff ended up last year?
I still really don't understand how it was so much higher in 2015 than 2014 with the same number of teams. Last edited by Ian Curtis : 03202017 at 11:49 AM. Reason: typo 
#3




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
If I'm recalling correctly it was 62 pts  65pts!

#4




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Eric,
The historical district cutoffs have been 63, 65, 66 If we use 6267 as a bubble it would look like this with four event to go: Teams In by Points (68 and Above) 1595  The Dragons 5803  Apex Robotics 3238  Cyborg Ferrets 2046  Bear Metal 5920  VIKotics 4061  SciBorgs 2907  Lion Robotics 4513  Circuit Breakers 4125  Confidential 4450  Olympia Robotics Federation 3711  Iron Mustang 4915  Spartronics 2990  Hotwire 4911  CyberKnights 4495  Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 2550  Skynet Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still 1318  Issaquah Robotics Society 1540  Flaming Chickens 2980  The Whidbey Island Wild Cats Teams with a second event still 3663  CPR  Cedar Park Robotics 955  CV Robotics 6350  The Enumclaw Hornets 3674  4H Clover Bots 5588  Holy Names Academy 4173  Bulldogs 3219  TREAD 4309  4H Botsmiths 2471  Team Mean Machine 1294  Top Gun 4469  R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 5468  Chaos Theory 5827  Code Purple 2928  Viking Robotics 6445  CTEC Robotics 2930  Sonic Squirrels 4681  Murphy's law 2910  Jack in the Bot 6343  Steel Ridge Robotics 5198  Knight Tech 753  High Desert Droids 1778  Chill Out 4089  Stealth Robotics 5085  LakerBots 2557  SOTAbots 957  SWARM 5450  St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 4488  Shockwave 5975  Beta Blues 1899  Saints Robotics 1425  Error Code Xero 2605  Sehome Seamonsters 948  NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 488  Team XBot 4918  The Roboctopi 4060  S.W.A.G. 997  Spartan Robotics 3826  Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 2811  StormBots 2903  NeoBots 3024  My Favorite Team 5295  Aldernating Current 1432  Metal Beavers 6442  Modern Americans 5495  Aluminati 6443  Falcons 4077  M*A*S*H 3070  Team Pronto 5941  SPQL 4043  NerdHerd 6437  The Pacific Quakers 6503  Iron Dragon 1258  SeaBot 2915  Pandamonium 6456  Oregon Trail Academy WiFires 5977  Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 4512  BEARbots 4682  BraveBots 2521  SERT 5937  MIRobotics 2522  Royal Robotics 3786  Chargers 6465  Decipher 3574  HIGH TEKERZ 3393  Horns of Havoc 2635  Lake Monsters 5683  RAVE 3049  BremerTron 2976  Spartabots 1359  Scalawags 3218  Panther Robotics 4051  SabinSharks 3636  Generals 2906  Sentinel Prime Robotics 4205  ROBOCUBS 4180  Iron Riders 4057  STEAMPUNK 2733  Pigmice 2929  JAGBOTS 3781  Cardinal Robotics 3876  Mabton LugNutz 847  PHRED 4461  Ramen 4579  RoboEagles 4131  Iron Patriots 2942  Panda ER 949  Wolverine Robotics 3812  Bits & Bots 4683  Fullmetal Robotics 4110  DEEP SPACE NINERS 3684  Electric Eagles 2411  Rebel @lliance 3673  C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 3268  Vahallabots Teams with two events below 62 District points. 2148  Mechaknights 3693  GearHead Pirates 3588  the Talon 6076  Mustangs 360  The Revolution 6129  Shadle Park 1983  Skunk Works Robotics 5942  Warriors 4980  Canine Crusaders 4104  Blackhawks 2923  Aggies 3220  Mechanics of Mayhem 4608  Duct Tape Warriors 3575  Okanogan FFA 2944  Titanium Tigers 2149  CV Bearbots 3789  On Track Robotics 568  Nerds of the North 2926  Robo Sparks 5111  SaxonBots 4726  Robo Dynasty 4120  Jagwires 3712  RoboCats 
#5




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Quote:
The bigger impact is in the middle as the distribution of the points in the middle of the pack is based on the number of teams at the event. That is compounded by the fact that we switched the max number of teams at an event to create less variation in the number of teams at an event. That was done w/o knowing that FIRST was going to change the qual points calculation in part to equalize the points pool between the events. IE the variation in number of teams meant that you were more likely to earn more points at a smaller event than at a larger event. 
#6




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Quote:
Code:
in ~in bubble ~out out InFlight's label 0 13 57 24 0 Teams with a second event still 0 6 3 6 8 Teams with two events below 62 District points. 4 12 0 0 0 Teams In by Points (68 and Above) 0 1 2 0 0 Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still 0 2 0 17 0 None Code:
(None, '~in') [2147, 3223] (None, '~out') [492, 1510, 1571, 2002, 2374, 2412, 2555, 2898, 3131, 4127, 4132, 4662, 4692, 5748, 5956, 5970, 6696] ('Teams In by Points (68 and Above)', 'in') [1595, 2046, 3238, 5803] ('Teams In by Points (68 and Above)', '~in') [2550, 2907, 2990, 3711, 4061, 4125, 4450, 4495, 4513, 4911, 4915, 5920] ('Teams with a second event still', 'bubble') [488, 753, 948, 957, 997, 1258, 1359, 1425, 1432, 1778, 1899, 2521, 2522, 2557, 2605, 2635, 2811, 2903, 2910, 2915, 2930, 2976, 3024, 3049, 3070, 3218, 3393, 3574, 3786, 3826, 4043, 4051, 4060, 4077, 4089, 4488, 4512, 4681, 4682, 4918, 5085, 5198, 5295, 5450, 5495, 5683, 5827, 5937, 5941, 5975, 5977, 6343, 6437, 6442, 6443, 6445, 6503] ('Teams with a second event still', '~in') [955, 1294, 2471, 2928, 3219, 3663, 3674, 4173, 4309, 4469, 5468, 5588, 6350] ('Teams with a second event still', '~out') [847, 949, 2411, 2733, 2906, 2929, 2942, 3268, 3636, 3673, 3684, 3781, 3812, 3876, 4057, 4110, 4131, 4180, 4205, 4461, 4579, 4683, 6456, 6465] ('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', 'bubble') [1983, 4980, 5942] ('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', 'out') [568, 2149, 2926, 3712, 3789, 4120, 4726, 5111] ('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', '~in') [360, 2148, 3588, 3693, 6076, 6129] ('Teams with two events below 62 District points.', '~out') [2923, 2944, 3220, 3575, 4104, 4608] ("Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still", 'bubble') [1318, 2980] ("Three Chairmen's Awards winners with a second event still", '~in') [1540] Last edited by SoftwareBug2.0 : 03202017 at 03:40 PM. 
#7




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
In 2016 the 64th ranked team before districts (5588) had 58 district points.

#8




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
We, 5588, were the last team in but we were ranked 65th before DCMP and only got a slot due to a decline.
Last edited by Mr V : 03222017 at 09:57 PM. 
#9




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
This is neat! Can you generate a similar prediction for MAR?

#10




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Quote:

#11




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
While you did only get a slot due to a decline, there was a team (2980) who won chariman's with 44 district points, so you were rank 64th.

#12




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Now that the week 4 events, here's my updated projection:
Key: Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in out=won't make it ~in=probably going to have enough points ~out=probably won't have enough points bubble=could easily go either way Code:
Bestcase points to make it to district cmp: 48 Worstcase points to make it to district cmp: 89 Best estimate: 54 {'bubble': 54, 'out': 35, '~in': 31, '~out': 16, 'in': 19} 0 in 1595  The Dragons 1 in 5803  Apex Robotics 2 in 3238  Cyborg Ferrets 3 in 4915  Spartronics 4 in 2046  Bear Metal 5 in 4488  Shockwave 6 in 1425  Error Code Xero 7 in 5920  VIKotics 8 in 2990  Hotwire 9 in 2930  Sonic Squirrels 10 in 2550  Skynet 11 in 1294  Top Gun 12 in 3663  CPR  Cedar Park Robotics 13 in 1778  Chill Out 14 in 4061  SciBorgs 15 in 6445  CTEC Robotics 16 in 2907  Lion Robotics 17 in 2928  Viking Robotics 18 in 3674  4H Clover Bots 19 ~in 4513  Circuit Breakers 20 ~in 955  CV Robotics 21 ~in 5198  Knight Tech 22 ~in 4125  Confidential 23 ~in 1540  Flaming Chickens 24 ~in 5827  Code Purple 25 ~in 4450  Olympia Robotics Federation 26 ~in 753  High Desert Droids 27 ~in 3711  Iron Mustang 28 ~in 2811  StormBots 29 ~in 5588  Holy Names Academy 30 ~in 5468  Chaos Theory 31 ~in 4469  R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 32 ~in 4911  CyberKnights 33 ~in 2910  Jack in the Bot 34 ~in 4495  Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 35 ~in 2147  CHUCK 36 ~in 957  SWARM 37 ~in 997  Spartan Robotics 38 ~in 3223  Robotics Of Central Kitsap 39 ~in 5085  LakerBots 40 ~in 492  Titan Robotics Club 41 ~in 2148  Mechaknights 42 ~in 3693  GearHead Pirates 43 ~in 3070  Team Pronto 44 ~in 2557  SOTAbots 45 ~in 3588  the Talon 46 ~in 6076  Mustangs 47 ~in 4681  Murphy's law 48 ~in 2605  Sehome Seamonsters 49 bubble 4309  4H Botsmiths 50 bubble 4077  M*A*S*H 51 bubble 360  The Revolution 52 bubble 6129  Shadle Park 53 ~out 4110  DEEP SPACE NINERS 54 ~out 1899  Saints Robotics 55 ~out 1318  Issaquah Robotics Society 56 ~out 1983  Skunk Works Robotics 57 out 5942  Warriors 58 ~out 4980  Canine Crusaders 59 bubble 6350  The Enumclaw Hornets 60 ~out 4043  NerdHerd 61 ~in 4173  Bulldogs 62 ~out 5495  Aluminati 63 ~out 4089  Stealth Robotics 64 bubble 3219  TREAD 65 bubble 2471  Team Mean Machine 66 out 4104  Blackhawks 67 out 2923  Aggies 68 out 2903  NeoBots 69 out 3220  Mechanics of Mayhem 70 out 847  PHRED 71 out 2976  Spartabots 72 bubble 5970  BeaverTronics 73 bubble 6343  Steel Ridge Robotics 74 bubble 4662  Byte Sized Robotics 75 bubble 5450  St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 76 bubble 5975  Beta Blues 77 out 3218  Panther Robotics 78 out 5941  SPQL 79 out 6442  Modern Americans 80 out 6503  Iron Dragon 81 out 4608  Duct Tape Warriors 82 out 2521  SERT 83 out 3575  Okanogan FFA 84 out 2944  Titanium Tigers 85 out 2149  CV Bearbots 86 bubble 948  NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 87 bubble 488  Team XBot 88 bubble 4918  The Roboctopi 89 bubble 4060  S.W.A.G. 90 out 2522  Royal Robotics 91 out 4682  BraveBots 92 out 6456  Oregon Trail Academy WiFires 93 bubble 3826  Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 94 out 4512  BEARbots 95 bubble 3024  My Favorite Team 96 bubble 5295  Aldernating Current 97 bubble 1432  Metal Beavers 98 bubble 2980  The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 99 out 4051  SabinSharks 100 bubble 6443  Falcons 101 out 3268  Vahallabots 102 out 3789  On Track Robotics 103 out 568  Nerds of the North 104 out 4057  STEAMPUNK 105 bubble 6437  The Pacific Quakers 106 bubble 2374  Crusader Bots 107 out 2926  Robo Sparks 108 bubble 1258  SeaBot 109 bubble 2915  Pandamonium 110 out 5683  RAVE 111 bubble 6696  Cardinal Dynamics 112 bubble 5977  Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 113 out 4180  Iron Riders 114 bubble 5937  MIRobotics 115 out 5111  SaxonBots 116 bubble 3786  Chargers 117 out 4726  Robo Dynasty 118 ~out 6465  Decipher 119 out 3673  C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 120 bubble 3574  HIGH TEKERZ 121 out 4120  Jagwires 122 bubble 2412  Robototes 123 bubble 3393  Horns of Havoc 124 bubble 2635  Lake Monsters 125 bubble 4692  Metal Mallards 126 bubble 3049  BremerTron 127 bubble 1359  Scalawags 128 out 4683  Fullmetal Robotics 129 out 949  Wolverine Robotics 130 bubble 2898  Flying Hedgehogs 131 bubble 4127  LoggerBots 132 bubble 3636  Generals 133 bubble 2906  Sentinel Prime Robotics 134 bubble 4205  ROBOCUBS 135 bubble 1510  Wildcats 136 out 3712  RoboCats 137 bubble 2733  Pigmice 138 bubble 2929  JAGBOTS 139 bubble 3781  Cardinal Robotics 140 bubble 3876  Mabton LugNutz 141 bubble 2555  RoboRams 142 bubble 4461  Ramen 143 bubble 2002  Tualatin Robotics 144 bubble 4579  RoboEagles 145 bubble 4131  Iron Patriots 146 bubble 4132  Scotbots 147 bubble 2942  Panda ER 148 ~out 5748  Octo π Rates 149 ~out 3812  Bits & Bots 150 ~out 3684  Electric Eagles 151 ~out 1571  CALibrate Robotics 152 ~out 2411  Rebel @lliance 153 ~out 5956  Falcons 154 ~out 3131  Gladiators 
#13




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
This is probably a dumb question, and I assume it must mean I still don't understand FRC Locks (and so is maybe a question for Brandon), but...
Do you know why your predictive method shows a cutoffs in the mid 50s, and frclocks shows teams in red (locked out?) all the way up to 63 points? I had assumed that teams frclocks showed as red were eliminated in even the most favorable distribution of the remaining points, but that doesn't seem consistent with what your method is showing (which has worked really well in the past). 
#14




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
Quote:

#15




Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
In terms of Locks there are 38 teams that are definitely in.
There are 26 remaining openings, with two more Chairman’s Award Winners regardless of points. There are 7 Chairmen’s Award Winners 1595  The Dragons 4125  Confidential 1540  Flaming Chickens 2557  SOTAbots 1318  Issaquah Robotics Society 2521  SERT 2980  The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 31 Teams with over 70 District Points 5803  Apex Robotics 3238  Cyborg Ferrets 4915  Spartronics 2046  Bear Metal 4488  Shockwave 1425  Error Code Xero 5920  VIKotics 2990  Hotwire 2930  Sonic Squirrels 2550  Skynet 1294  Top Gun 3663  CPR  Cedar Park Robotics 1778  Chill Out 4061  SciBorgs 6445  CTEC Robotics 2907  Lion Robotics 2928  Viking Robotics 3674  4H Clover Bots 4513  Circuit Breakers 955  CV Robotics 5198  Knight Tech 5827  Code Purple 4450  Olympia Robotics Federation 753  High Desert Droids 3711  Iron Mustang 2811  StormBots 5588  Holy Names Academy 5468  Chaos Theory 4469  R.A.I.D. 4911  CyberKnights 2910  Jack in the Bot There are 23 teams with two events, between 69 and 51 district points that are still in the contention to various degrees. Currently there are 56 teams with a second event this week. There are all so 10 third event teams that can compete for the Chairmen's award still. There are 35 teams with two events and below 50 District Points that are in all likelihood out. Last edited by InFlight : 03272017 at 10:07 AM. 
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