Go to Post We will be stressed, we will be angry. But we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard, we need to be role models and inspirations to students. - Andrew Schreiber [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > Competition > Off-Season Events
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Reply
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
  #1   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-14-2017, 04:46 PM
Caleb Sykes's Avatar
Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
Registered User
AKA: inkling16
no team
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Posts: 1,277
Caleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond repute
IRI seeding projections

With half of the IRI quals matches completed, here are some of the seeding projections my event simulator is making. These are predictions as of match 51. Note that these percentages represent the proportion of 1000 simulations run in which the given team achieved some seed. Thus a 0.0% does not mean a team is mathematically eliminated from something, just that they never achieved this in any of the simulations run.

Code:
Team	1 seed	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2767	73.9%	98.5%	99.7%	99.8%	100.0%
2122	11.5%	89.6%	96.8%	98.3%	99.9%
107	2.4%	64.2%	85.7%	92.2%	99.4%
33	2.0%	70.3%	88.9%	94.5%	99.0%
2337	1.1%	51.6%	77.2%	88.3%	98.9%
1619	1.1%	58.3%	82.4%	91.4%	98.8%
195	0.9%	56.6%	77.6%	87.6%	98.6%
2169	1.5%	46.8%	74.1%	84.8%	98.4%
125	3.2%	66.7%	83.0%	89.5%	98.2%
118	1.2%	38.0%	65.0%	78.7%	95.9%
2056	0.2%	38.3%	60.0%	74.8%	95.1%
4028	0.3%	25.4%	48.0%	62.3%	87.9%
225	0.2%	25.0%	45.4%	60.2%	87.4%
1114	0.5%	17.9%	42.3%	60.0%	86.9%
384	0.0%	12.5%	33.5%	51.6%	86.7%
2614	0.0%	8.5%	22.4%	35.9%	74.6%
4272	0.0%	3.5%	11.7%	23.6%	62.6%
2481	0.0%	5.4%	15.4%	27.0%	62.4%
292	0.0%	5.3%	14.3%	25.0%	59.2%
2832	0.0%	5.4%	13.4%	21.9%	58.8%
2168	0.0%	1.4%	7.5%	17.3%	55.4%
4967	0.0%	2.4%	10.1%	18.9%	53.2%
2451	0.0%	0.2%	5.4%	14.5%	48.4%
2590	0.0%	1.2%	4.5%	11.0%	42.9%
4188	0.0%	0.5%	3.8%	8.8%	41.8%
1018	0.0%	0.4%	3.3%	9.5%	36.1%
1806	0.0%	1.0%	4.4%	9.6%	34.7%
2194	0.0%	0.9%	4.4%	9.4%	31.7%
1676	0.0%	0.8%	3.4%	7.8%	30.5%
4039	0.0%	0.4%	2.4%	7.6%	30.2%
365	0.0%	0.7%	1.7%	5.9%	29.7%
4143	0.0%	0.2%	2.0%	6.4%	27.5%
51	0.0%	0.5%	2.4%	5.6%	26.1%
1024	0.0%	0.4%	1.9%	4.2%	22.2%
5406	0.0%	0.5%	1.7%	4.3%	21.2%
2137	0.0%	0.4%	1.8%	3.5%	19.8%
4206	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	1.9%	19.5%
3478	0.0%	0.3%	1.4%	3.5%	18.3%
1732	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	7.8%
3847	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	7.8%
829	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.7%	7.2%
1987	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.5%
1080	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	5.2%
910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	4.7%
469	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%
217	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	3.2%
1506	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%
234	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%
340	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.5%
4265	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.9%
67	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
1746	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%
1675	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%
1640	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	1.1%
1720	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%
48	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%
3452	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
4587	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
3824	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
1885	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2468	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
5842	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
191	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
503	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1477	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1511	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1710	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2791	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
I'll probably post an update after all matches are completed tonight.
Reply With Quote
  #2   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-14-2017, 08:17 PM
Caleb Sykes's Avatar
Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
Registered User
AKA: inkling16
no team
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Posts: 1,277
Caleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: IRI seeding projections

Here are the projections as of match 64. I would have published them earlier, but I hadn't realized that matches were done for the day.

Code:
Team	1 seed	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2767	55.0%	96.3%	99.4%	99.9%	100.0%
125	13.6%	91.1%	97.2%	99.6%	100.0%
195	0.8%	60.1%	81.0%	90.1%	100.0%
2122	19.4%	90.9%	97.6%	99.0%	100.0%
107	3.7%	67.4%	86.8%	93.4%	99.8%
33	3.1%	69.0%	85.6%	92.5%	99.6%
384	0.3%	43.9%	72.1%	86.0%	99.4%
2169	1.0%	35.4%	63.6%	79.1%	99.2%
4028	1.5%	50.3%	73.8%	85.3%	98.9%
2337	0.7%	42.3%	67.2%	80.4%	98.6%
1114	0.4%	28.6%	57.4%	74.1%	97.3%
118	0.4%	29.1%	57.4%	73.2%	96.8%
1619	0.0%	22.8%	49.8%	69.5%	96.0%
2056	0.0%	17.8%	44.0%	65.0%	95.1%
4272	0.0%	11.5%	30.8%	46.7%	90.8%
225	0.1%	10.1%	27.9%	44.5%	89.2%
2481	0.0%	12.2%	30.9%	48.5%	88.3%
2614	0.0%	5.7%	20.1%	39.0%	86.8%
2832	0.0%	7.2%	18.6%	34.6%	85.5%
2590	0.0%	3.2%	11.2%	25.6%	80.8%
3478	0.0%	1.8%	7.8%	17.7%	68.2%
2168	0.0%	0.9%	6.2%	15.3%	63.6%
4967	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	4.7%	54.3%
1806	0.0%	0.6%	3.5%	10.0%	50.0%
292	0.0%	0.7%	3.3%	7.3%	36.6%
4188	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	4.0%	29.7%
1676	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	2.5%	28.8%
2137	0.0%	0.6%	1.7%	4.4%	24.8%
365	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	1.4%	24.0%
4206	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%	2.9%	22.2%
5406	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	1.9%	22.1%
2194	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	15.7%
2451	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	12.0%
829	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.7%	11.2%
3847	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%
51	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	4.5%
1987	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.4%
910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%
1024	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.1%
1018	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%
217	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.8%
340	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%
469	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%
4587	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
3824	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%
4265	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%
1675	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%
2791	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%
48	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
234	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
1720	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
4039	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
1080	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
3452	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
67	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
503	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1477	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1506	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1511	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1640	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1710	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1732	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1746	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1885	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2468	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4143	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5842	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Reply With Quote
  #3   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-15-2017, 10:20 AM
Caleb Sykes's Avatar
Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
Registered User
AKA: inkling16
no team
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Posts: 1,277
Caleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: IRI seeding projections

One match to go for most teams. Here are the projections as of match 90.

Code:
Team	1 seed	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2767	91.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
107	2.4%	81.0%	98.6%	99.8%	100.0%
2337	2.2%	88.0%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
195	1.6%	82.2%	99.4%	100.0%	100.0%
1619	0.8%	71.8%	98.4%	100.0%	100.0%
1114	0.8%	85.6%	98.2%	100.0%	100.0%
2122	0.4%	85.4%	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%
33	0.0%	79.2%	96.8%	100.0%	100.0%
125	0.0%	60.4%	90.4%	99.8%	100.0%
118	0.0%	9.6%	62.4%	96.6%	100.0%
4272	0.0%	20.0%	56.0%	93.0%	100.0%
2056	0.0%	18.8%	50.2%	83.8%	100.0%
4028	0.0%	11.6%	37.0%	80.0%	100.0%
225	0.0%	4.8%	45.4%	74.0%	100.0%
384	0.0%	1.2%	39.4%	73.2%	100.0%
2481	0.0%	0.4%	24.6%	68.0%	100.0%
2590	0.0%	0.0%	4.0%	19.6%	99.4%
2832	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	8.8%	95.2%
2451	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.4%	76.6%
4188	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	88.0%
217	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	56.8%
2169	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59.6%
4206	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	58.8%
1987	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	56.6%
1024	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	54.4%
2614	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	46.2%
1806	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	42.2%
5406	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	24.2%
4967	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.8%
3478	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.6%
2168	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.4%
365	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%
1676	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.0%
2194	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%
234	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%
2137	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.6%
48	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%
51	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
67	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
292	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
340	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
469	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
503	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
829	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1018	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1080	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1477	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1506	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1511	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1640	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1675	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1710	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1720	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1732	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1746	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1885	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2468	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2791	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3452	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3824	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3847	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4039	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4143	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4265	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4587	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5842	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Reply With Quote
  #4   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-15-2017, 12:56 PM
Eugene Fang's Avatar
Eugene Fang Eugene Fang is offline
The Blue Alliance
no team
Team Role: Alumni
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Rookie Year: 2000
Location: Bay Area, CA -> Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 904
Eugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond reputeEugene Fang has a reputation beyond repute
Re: IRI seeding projections

I always love your seeding projection posts. Very insightful.
__________________
Eugene Fang
2010 Silicon Valley Regional Dean's List Finalist

Various FLL Teams - Student (2000-2006), Mentor (2007-2010)
FRC Team 604 - Student (2007-2010), Mentor/Remote Advisor (2011-Present)
FRC Team 1323 - Mentor/Remote Advisor (2011-2014)

The Blue Alliance | TBA GameDay | TBA Android App | TBA Blog
Reply With Quote
  #5   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-15-2017, 11:22 PM
Caleb Sykes's Avatar
Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
Registered User
AKA: inkling16
no team
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Posts: 1,277
Caleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: IRI seeding projections

I have uploaded an excel workbook here named "IRI seeding projections investigator" which can be used to investigate all of the projections my simulator made for IRI. The discrepancies between these projections and the above projections are due to sampling differences.

One thing I found with this project is that my event simulator does not properly handle DQed teams. Unfortunately, the changes required to fix this are non-trivial, so I have left the simulator unchanged. This means that the projections for teams 1806, 2451, and 4039 will be very poor for the matches after which they are DQed, and these discrepancies will decrease the performance of other teams' projections as well.
Reply With Quote
  #6   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 07-16-2017, 05:22 PM
aJASONt_angles's Avatar
aJASONt_angles aJASONt_angles is offline
"Goofy Jason"
AKA: Jason
FRC #4272 (Mavericks Boiler Robotics)
Team Role: Coach
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Rookie Year: 2013
Location: Palo Alto, California
Posts: 36
aJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud ofaJASONt_angles has much to be proud of
Re: IRI seeding projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post

Code:
Team	1 seed	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
4272	0.0%	3.5%	11.7%	23.6%	62.6%
Take that statistics! We had a memorable time at IRI and were especially blessed to be an alliance captain! Thanks 910, 5406 and 1746 for being a great 8th alliance with us!
__________________
Mentor - FRC Team 4272 MBR Mechanical Design + Drive Coach (2014 - ...)
FRC Alumni - FRC Team 192 GRT (2013)
Mechanical Design Intern - AndyMark Inc. (2016, 2017)
Ri3D Team Indiana (2016 - 2017)
Media Team - Indiana FIRST (2014 - ...)

"Keep Comm and Carry On"
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:40 AM.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi