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Unread 03-20-2018, 04:26 PM
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PNW District Championship Projections 2018

With two more weeks of district events in the PNW district, it's time for my annual district championship projections.

I've done this the last four years:
2017: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=156957
2016: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=145965
2015: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=135841
2014: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=128388

I'm using the same methodology as previous years. If you would like more details, see the previous threads or have a look at the source code at https://github.com/errorcodexero/standing_predictor. If you would like answers that attempt to avoid approximation, see https://frclocks.com/index.php?d=pnw.

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 31
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 103
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 84, 'out': 6, '~in': 30, '~out': 30, 'in': 4}
0       in      2811 - StormBots 
1       in      2046 - Bear Metal 
2       in      5803 - Apex Robotics 
3       in      1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
4       ~in     6831 - A-05 Annex 
5       ~in     3711 - Iron Mustang 
6       ~in     488 - Team XBot 
7       ~in     2605 - Seamonsters 
8       ~in     4125 - Confidential 
9       ~in     1540 - Flaming Chickens 
10      ~in     2374 - Crusader Bots 
11      ~in     1425 - Error Code Xero 
12      ~in     4513 - Circuit Breakers 
13      ~in     2471 - Team Mean Machine 
14      ~in     1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
15      ~in     2910 - Jack in the Bot 
16      ~in     4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
17      ~in     5468 - Chaos Theory 
18      ~in     3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
19      ~in     2557 - SOTAbots 
20      ~in     2147 - CHUCK 
21      ~in     957 - SWARM 
22      ~in     4061 - SciBorgs 
23      ~in     6445 - CTEC Robotics 
24      ~in     6845 - River Bots 
25      ~in     2990 - Hotwire 
26      ~in     3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
27      ~in     4915 - Spartronics 
28      ~in     4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
29      ~in     5588 - Reign Robotics 
30      ~out    753 - High Desert Droids 
31      ~in     3575 - Okanogan FFA 
32      ~out    6696 - Cardinal Dynamics 
33      ~out    2907 - Lion Robotics 
34      ~in     6465 - Mystic Biscuit 
35      ~out    568 - Nerds of the North 
36      ~in     4682 - BraveBots 
37      ~in     3024 - My Favorite Team 
38      bubble  2635 - Lake Monsters 
39      ~out    4127 - LoggerBots 
40      bubble  1359 - Scalawags 
41      bubble  2521 - SERT 
42      bubble  7034 - 2B Determined 
43      bubble  4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
44      bubble  4512 - BEAR bots 
45      bubble  4980 - Canine Crusaders 
46      bubble  4131 - Iron Patriots 
47      bubble  4911 - CyberKnights 
48      bubble  3218 - Panther Robotics 
49      bubble  2733 - Pigmice 
50      bubble  948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
51      bubble  1510 - Wildcats 
52      bubble  4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 
53      bubble  847 - PHRED 
54      ~out    4060 - S.W.A.G. 
55      bubble  3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap 
56      bubble  2976 - Spartabots 
57      ~out    3049 - BremerTron 
58      bubble  2148 - Mechaknights 
59      bubble  1778 - Chill Out 
60      bubble  5970 - BeaverTronics 
61      bubble  2915 - Pandamonium 
62      bubble  3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
63      bubble  360 - The Revolution 
64      bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
65      bubble  4488 - Shockwave 
66      bubble  3674 - 4-H / CAM Academy CloverBots 
67      out     5085 - LakerBots 
68      bubble  4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
69      bubble  3219 - TREAD 
70      bubble  4077 - M*A*S*H 
71      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics 
72      bubble  5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
73      bubble  4089 - Stealth Robotics 
74      bubble  4120 - Jagwires 
75      bubble  2412 - Robototes 
76      bubble  2522 - Royal Robotics 
77      out     6959 - Centralia Circuit Breakers #69... 
78      bubble  7118 - ScotBots 
79      bubble  2927 - Pi Rho Techs 
80      bubble  3786 - Chargers 
81      bubble  2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
82      bubble  5920 - VIKotics 
83      bubble  6443 - AEMBOT 
84      bubble  4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
85      bubble  5295 - Aldernating Current 
86      bubble  6343 - Steel Ridge Robotics 
87      bubble  2944 - Titanium Tigers 
88      bubble  3070 - Team Pronto 
89      bubble  2550 - Skynet 
90      bubble  3588 - the Talon 
91      bubble  5937 - MI-Robotics 
92      bubble  5975 - Beta Blues 
93      bubble  7204 - Prospect Cougars 
94      bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
95      out     4132 - Scotbots 
96      bubble  1595 - The Dragons 
97      bubble  6076 - Mustangs 
98      bubble  4173 - IMVERT (Interscholastic Mount... 
99      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc 
100     out     3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
101     out     5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
102     bubble  6503 - Iron Dragon 
103     bubble  3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
104     out     4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
105     bubble  3131 - Gladiators 
106     bubble  2411 - Rebel @lliance 
107     bubble  2928 - Viking Robotics 
108     bubble  3812 - Bits & Bots 
109     bubble  3684 - Electric Eagles 
110     bubble  6442 - Modern Americans 
111     ~out    7032 - Raptors 
112     bubble  1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
113     bubble  3237 - Event Horizon 
114     bubble  955 - CV Robotics 
115     bubble  3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
116     bubble  5683 - Hello World 
117     bubble  4205 - ROBOCUBS 
118     bubble  3636 - Generals 
119     bubble  1899 - Saints Robotics 
120     bubble  4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics - STEAM... 
121     bubble  2929 - JAGBOTS 
122     bubble  3268 - Vahallabots 
123     bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards 
124     bubble  4180 - Iron Riders 
125     bubble  4461 - Ramen 
126     bubble  4104 - Blackhawks 
127     ~out    6350 - J.E.D.I. 
128     bubble  1294 - Top Gun 
129     bubble  5941 - SPQL 
130     bubble  3693 - GearHead Pirates 
131     bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers 
132     bubble  4579 - RoboEagles 
133     ~out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
134     ~out    2926 - Robo Sparks 
135     ~out    5827 - Code Purple 
136     ~out    4726 - Robo Dynasty 
137     ~out    3712 - RoboCats 
138     ~out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics 
139     ~out    2903 - NeoBots 
140     ~out    2898 - Flying Hedgehogs 
141     ~out    5748 - Adna Pirate Robotics 
142     ~out    4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
143     ~out    6129 - Shadle Park 
144     ~out    4043 - NerdHerd 
145     ~out    5198 - Knight Tech 
146     ~out    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob... 
147     ~out    4681 - Murphy's law 
148     ~out    492 - Titan Robotics Club 
149     ~out    949 - Wolverine Robotics 
150     ~out    1258 - SeaBot 
151     ~out    2555 - RoboRams 
152     ~out    2942 - Panda Robotics 
153     ~out    4918 - The Roboctopi
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Unread 03-20-2018, 10:11 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Thanks again for doing this every year!

Is the point cut-off projected to be in the 60's again this year?
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Unread 03-21-2018, 01:54 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafonthewind View Post
Thanks again for doing this every year!

Is the point cut-off projected to be in the 60's again this year?
My program is predicting that the cutoff will be 52 points this year. However, looking at the results over time, here's how it's done:

Code:
Year Initial    Actual
     Prediction
2018 52         ?
2017 52         58
2016 52         58
2015 62         60
2014 55         58
If I was a betting man, my money would be on a 58-point cutoff.
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Unread 03-21-2018, 06:48 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
If I was a betting man, my money would be on a 58-point cutoff.
Eric,

Thanks for doing this, again! Not so much thanks for making me sweat unless we hit 58+ district points.
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Last edited by Ian Curtis : 03-21-2018 at 06:51 PM.
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Unread 03-22-2018, 06:56 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Do you happen to have a point cutoff prediction for the New England district?
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Unread 03-24-2018, 01:04 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by amieagasino View Post
Do you happen to have a point cutoff prediction for the New England district?
Unfortunately, I don't have things set up to give accurate numbers while events are in progress. I can update you after Pine Tree finishes though.
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Unread 03-25-2018, 08:06 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Here's an update now that there is just one week of PNW district events left.

Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 43
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 91
Best estimate: 55
{'bubble': 55, 'out': 32, '~in': 29, '~out': 23, 'in': 15}
0	in	2811 - StormBots 
1	in	4513 - Circuit Breakers 
2	in	2910 - Jack in the Bot 
3	in	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
4	in	2046 - Bear Metal 
5	in	5803 - Apex Robotics 
6	in	2990 - Hotwire 
7	in	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
8	in	4061 - SciBorgs 
9	in	2147 - CHUCK 
10	in	6831 - A-05 Annex 
11	in	3711 - Iron Mustang 
12	in	3218 - Panther Robotics 
13	in	488 - Team XBot 
14	in	4980 - Canine Crusaders 
15	~in	4488 - Shockwave 
16	~in	4911 - CyberKnights 
17	~in	2605 - Seamonsters 
18	~in	4125 - Confidential 
19	~in	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
20	~in	1540 - Flaming Chickens 
21	~in	4915 - Spartronics 
22	~in	2374 - Crusader Bots 
23	~in	1425 - Error Code Xero 
24	~in	2471 - Team Mean Machine 
25	~in	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
26	~in	5920 - VIKotics 
27	~in	4512 - BEAR bots 
28	~in	5468 - Chaos Theory 
29	~in	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
30	~in	2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
31	~in	2522 - Royal Robotics 
32	~in	1595 - The Dragons 
33	~in	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
34	~in	2557 - SOTAbots 
35	~in	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap 
36	~in	957 - SWARM 
37	~in	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team... 
38	~in	6076 - Mustangs 
39	~in	2928 - Viking Robotics 
40	~in	6445 - CTEC Robotics 
41	~in	6845 - River Bots 
42	~in	3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
43	~in	3575 - Okanogan FFA 
44	bubble	4077 - M*A*S*H 
45	~out	5588 - Reign Robotics 
46	~out	5827 - Code Purple 
47	~out	4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
48	~out	4089 - Stealth Robotics 
49	~out	4682 - BraveBots 
50	~out	4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
51	~out	753 - High Desert Droids 
52	~out	4120 - Jagwires 
53	~out	6696 - Cardinal Dynamics 
54	~out	2944 - Titanium Tigers 
55	~out	2907 - Lion Robotics 
56	bubble	6465 - Mystic Biscuit 
57	~out	568 - Nerds of the North 
58	~out	2412 - Robototes 
59	bubble	3024 - My Favorite Team 
60	~out	5295 - Aldernating Current 
61	bubble	2635 - Lake Monsters 
62	~out	2148 - Mechaknights 
63	out	6442 - Modern Americans 
64	~out	3070 - Team Pronto 
65	out	4127 - LoggerBots 
66	bubble	1359 - Scalawags 
67	out	4692 - Metal Mallards 
68	out	4173 - IMVERT (Interscholastic Mount... 
69	bubble	2521 - SERT 
70	bubble	7034 - 2B Determined 
71	bubble	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
72	out	3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
73	bubble	4131 - Iron Patriots 
74	bubble	2733 - Pigmice 
75	out	7118 - ScotBots 
76	bubble	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
77	out	4205 - ROBOCUBS 
78	bubble	1510 - Wildcats 
79	bubble	847 - PHRED 
80	out	4726 - Robo Dynasty 
81	out	4060 - S.W.A.G. 
82	out	2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
83	bubble	2976 - Spartabots 
84	out	4104 - Blackhawks 
85	out	3049 - BremerTron 
86	bubble	1778 - Chill Out 
87	out	2903 - NeoBots 
88	bubble	5970 - BeaverTronics 
89	bubble	2915 - Pandamonium 
90	out	4180 - Iron Riders 
91	bubble	360 - The Revolution 
92	bubble	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
93	bubble	3674 - 4-H / CAM Academy CloverBots 
94	out	5085 - LakerBots 
95	out	6129 - HighTech Highlanders 
96	bubble	3219 - TREAD 
97	bubble	997 - Spartan Robotics 
98	bubble	492 - Titan Robotics Club 
99	out	3693 - GearHead Pirates 
100	bubble	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
101	out	5748 - Adna Pirate Robotics 
102	out	6959 - Centralia Circuit Breakers #69... 
103	out	1294 - Top Gun 
104	bubble	2927 - Pi Rho Techs 
105	bubble	3786 - Chargers 
106	bubble	6443 - AEMBOT 
107	out	5683 - Hello World 
108	bubble	6343 - Steel Ridge Robotics 
109	out	3268 - Vahallabots 
110	bubble	2550 - Skynet 
111	bubble	3588 - the Talon 
112	bubble	5937 - MI-Robotics 
113	bubble	5975 - Beta Blues 
114	bubble	7204 - Prospect Cougars 
115	out	4132 - Scotbots 
116	out	5941 - SPQL 
117	bubble	3393 - Horns of Havoc 
118	out	3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
119	out	3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
120	out	5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
121	bubble	6503 - Iron Dragon 
122	out	4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
123	bubble	3131 - Gladiators 
124	bubble	2411 - Rebel @lliance 
125	out	4683 - Full Metal Robotics 
126	bubble	949 - Wolverine Robotics 
127	bubble	3812 - Bits & Bots 
128	bubble	3684 - Electric Eagles 
129	out	3712 - RoboCats 
130	~out	7032 - Raptors 
131	bubble	1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
132	bubble	3237 - Event Horizon 
133	bubble	955 - CV Robotics 
134	out	4681 - Murphy's law 
135	bubble	3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
136	bubble	3636 - Generals 
137	bubble	1899 - Saints Robotics 
138	bubble	4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics - STEAM... 
139	bubble	2929 - JAGBOTS 
140	bubble	4461 - Ramen 
141	bubble	1258 - SeaBot 
142	~out	6350 - J.E.D.I. 
143	bubble	1432 - Metal Beavers 
144	bubble	4579 - RoboEagles 
145	out	3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob... 
146	bubble	2926 - Robo Sparks 
147	bubble	2898 - Flying Hedgehogs 
148	bubble	4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
149	~out	4043 - NerdHerd 
150	~out	4918 - The Roboctopi 
151	~out	5198 - Knight Tech 
152	~out	2555 - RoboRams 
153	~out	2942 - Panda Robotics
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by amieagasino View Post
Do you happen to have a point cutoff prediction for the New England district?
Here you go:

https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s....php?p=1750143
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Unread 03-25-2018, 08:28 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Shouldnt 2944 and 3070 be shown as "In" for winning Chairmans?
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Unread 03-26-2018, 12:25 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikLast View Post
Shouldnt 2944 and 3070 be shown as "In" for winning Chairmans?
You are correct that 2944 is already qualified to go to the district championship for winning chairman's. The model does not take the auto-bid for winning chairman's into account.

Regarding 3070, I don't believe they won chairman's at either of the events that they attended. As far as I can tell the winners at those events were 1595 and 4911. Are you possibly thinking of 3024?
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
Regarding 3070, I don't believe they won chairman's at either of the events that they attended. As far as I can tell the winners at those events were 1595 and 4911. Are you possibly thinking of 3024?
Ah shoot, I am.
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Unread 03-31-2018, 06:48 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

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Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
If I was a betting man, my money would be on a 58-point cutoff.
Cutoff was 59. Pretty close.
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Unread 03-31-2018, 10:43 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Eric,

Willing to do a PNW --> Houston projection?

No rush, it can wait until you guys get home and tuck that banner in for the night
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Unread 03-31-2018, 11:48 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

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Originally Posted by MikLast View Post
Cutoff was 59. Pretty close.
And if there's exactly one team that declines their invitation it will be right on.
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Unread 04-01-2018, 01:38 AM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Navid Shafa View Post
Eric,

Willing to do a PNW --> Houston projection?

No rush, it can wait until you guys get home and tuck that banner in for the night
I'm always a bit hesitant to do Houston projections, but I will do something slightly different: Calculate what qualifying place each team would need in order to guarantee enough points to get in with last year's cutoff.

Last year the cutoff to make it to Houston was 121 (some made it and some did not at this score). Let's round up to a target of 122. And here are the results:

So the first column is the minimum rank a team could achieve to get to that number of points. Since it's a 64-team event, a rank of 64 that means that the team should get a to that point total just by showing up.

Code:
64	1425 - Error Code Xero
64	2811 - StormBots
64	4513 - Circuit Breakers
64	2471 - Team Mean Machine
64	2910 - Jack in the Bot
64	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
64	2046 - Bear Metal
64	5803 - Apex Robotics
64	957 - SWARM
64	2990 - Hotwire
64	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
63	2557 - SOTAbots
62	4061 - SciBorgs
60	2147 - CHUCK
55	6831 - A-05 Annex
51	3711 - Iron Mustang
51	3218 - Panther Robotics
51	488 - Team XBot
47	4980 - Canine Crusaders
47	1778 - Chill Out
42	3674 - 4-H / CAM Academy CloverBots
42	4488 - Shockwave
42	4911 - CyberKnights
38	2605 - Seamonsters
32	4125 - Confidential
32	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
27	1540 - Flaming Chickens
23	2635 - Lake Monsters
23	4915 - Spartronics
23	2521 - SERT
18	2374 - Crusader Bots
18	3024 - My Favorite Team
18	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
14	1510 - Wildcats
14	847 - PHRED
14	997 - Spartan Robotics
10	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
10	5920 - VIKotics
10	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
10	2733 - Pigmice
10	4512 - BEAR bots
10	5468 - Chaos Theory
10	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
10	360 - The Revolution
10	7034 - 2B Determined
8	2930 - Sonic Squirrels
8	2522 - Royal Robotics
8	1595 - The Dragons
8	1359 - Scalawags
8	492 - Titan Robotics Club
8	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
8	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
8	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
8	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap
8	6465 - Mystic Biscuit
8	2976 - Spartabots
8	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team...
8	6076 - Mustangs
8	2928 - Viking Robotics
8	6445 - CTEC Robotics
8	6845 - River Bots
8	6443 - AEMBOT
8	4131 - Iron Patriots
8	2944 - Titanium Tigers
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