Go to Post Because nothing says safety like carrying a 150lb robot across a field covered in golf balls. - Kevin Sevcik [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > Competition > District Events
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Reply
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
  #16   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-01-2018, 01:01 PM
richardahn_!219 richardahn_!219 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Richard Ahn
FRC #2930 (Sonic Squirrels)
Team Role: Electrical
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Rookie Year: 2015
Location: Snohomish, Washington
Posts: 3
richardahn_!219 is an unknown quantity at this point
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

The teams that won their competitions are the ones to consider because all the chairman-advancing teams are already within the top 40. One example is 5827 Code Purple, which won with 2910 Jack in the bot and 1983 skunkworks. They are currently 69th place but are going to PNW.
Reply With Quote
  #17   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-01-2018, 01:05 PM
Ian Curtis Ian Curtis is offline
Best Available Data
FRC #1778 (Chill Out!)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Snohomish
Posts: 2,601
Ian Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
I'm always a bit hesitant to do Houston projections, but I will do something slightly different: Calculate what qualifying place each team would need in order to guarantee enough points to get in with last year's cutoff.

Last year the cutoff to make it to Houston was 121 (some made it and some did not at this score). Let's round up to a target of 122. And here are the results:

So the first column is the minimum rank a team could achieve to get to that number of points. Since it's a 64-team event, a rank of 64 that means that the team should get a to that point total just by showing up.

Code:
64	1425 - Error Code Xero
64	2811 - StormBots
64	4513 - Circuit Breakers
64	2471 - Team Mean Machine
64	2910 - Jack in the Bot
64	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
64	2046 - Bear Metal
64	5803 - Apex Robotics
64	957 - SWARM
64	2990 - Hotwire
64	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
63	2557 - SOTAbots
62	4061 - SciBorgs
60	2147 - CHUCK
55	6831 - A-05 Annex
51	3711 - Iron Mustang
51	3218 - Panther Robotics
51	488 - Team XBot
47	4980 - Canine Crusaders
47	1778 - Chill Out
42	3674 - 4-H / CAM Academy CloverBots
42	4488 - Shockwave
42	4911 - CyberKnights
38	2605 - Seamonsters
32	4125 - Confidential
32	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
27	1540 - Flaming Chickens
23	2635 - Lake Monsters
23	4915 - Spartronics
23	2521 - SERT
18	2374 - Crusader Bots
18	3024 - My Favorite Team
18	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
14	1510 - Wildcats
14	847 - PHRED
14	997 - Spartan Robotics
10	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
10	5920 - VIKotics
10	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
10	2733 - Pigmice
10	4512 - BEAR bots
10	5468 - Chaos Theory
10	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
10	360 - The Revolution
10	7034 - 2B Determined
8	2930 - Sonic Squirrels
8	2522 - Royal Robotics
8	1595 - The Dragons
8	1359 - Scalawags
8	492 - Titan Robotics Club
8	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
8	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
8	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
8	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap
8	6465 - Mystic Biscuit
8	2976 - Spartabots
8	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team...
8	6076 - Mustangs
8	2928 - Viking Robotics
8	6445 - CTEC Robotics
8	6845 - River Bots
8	6443 - AEMBOT
8	4131 - Iron Patriots
8	2944 - Titanium Tigers
Wow. This is great napkin math that leads to a totally unexpected result. I would have guessed the bar was higher even for teams that are currently ranked highly.
__________________
CHILL OUT! | Aero Stability & Control Engineer
It is much easier to call someone else a genius than admit to yourself that you are lazy. - Dave Gingery
Reply With Quote
  #18   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-01-2018, 01:27 PM
richardahn_!219 richardahn_!219 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Richard Ahn
FRC #2930 (Sonic Squirrels)
Team Role: Electrical
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Rookie Year: 2015
Location: Snohomish, Washington
Posts: 3
richardahn_!219 is an unknown quantity at this point
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by richardahn_!219 View Post
The teams that won their competitions are the ones to consider because all the chairman-advancing teams are already within the top 40. One example is 5827 Code Purple, which won with 2910 Jack in the bot and 1983 skunkworks. They are currently 69th place but are going to PNW.
Take that back Code Purple didn't qualify and the qualifications are already out.
http://frc-districtrankings.firstinspires.org/2018/PNW
Reply With Quote
  #19   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-01-2018, 02:00 PM
SoftwareBug2.0's Avatar
SoftwareBug2.0 SoftwareBug2.0 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Eric
FRC #1425 (Error Code Xero)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Tigard, Oregon
Posts: 550
SoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
Wow. This is great napkin math that leads to a totally unexpected result. I would have guessed the bar was higher even for teams that are currently ranked highly.
Yeah, I was a little surprised by the result myself. If anyone wanted to check my math that would probably not be the worst thing.
Reply With Quote
  #20   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-02-2018, 06:48 PM
Jeffrafa's Avatar
Jeffrafa Jeffrafa is offline
Mentor
AKA: Jeff Lewis
FRC #1425 (Error Code)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Wilsonville, OR
Posts: 176
Jeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond reputeJeffrafa has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
Yeah, I was a little surprised by the result myself. If anyone wanted to check my math that would probably not be the worst thing.
One item to note when comparing to last year - the number of district slots has dropped for PNW from 39 in 2017 to 32 in 2018.

Using last year’s ranking, the 32nd team had 133 points. It may be safer to do this analysis assuming a target of 134.

Regardless - there are a lot of points still on the table at DCMP, so anything is possible.
__________________
Team 1425 Alumnus and Mentor

I am KF7JDK - What's your callsign?
Reply With Quote
  #21   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-02-2018, 07:06 PM
SoftwareBug2.0's Avatar
SoftwareBug2.0 SoftwareBug2.0 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Eric
FRC #1425 (Error Code Xero)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Tigard, Oregon
Posts: 550
SoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffrafa View Post
One item to note when comparing to last year - the number of district slots has dropped for PNW from 39 in 2017 to 32 in 2018.

Using last year’s ranking, the 32nd team had 133 points. It may be safer to do this analysis assuming a target of 134.

Regardless - there are a lot of points still on the table at DCMP, so anything is possible.
Good point. That does considerably change things for teams in the middle. For example, the Flaming Chickens would have to rank 10th instead of 27th.

Code:
64	1425 - Error Code Xero
64	2811 - StormBots
64	4513 - Circuit Breakers
64	2471 - Team Mean Machine
64	2910 - Jack in the Bot
64	1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
64	2046 - Bear Metal
64	5803 - Apex Robotics
63	957 - SWARM
62	2990 - Hotwire
62	1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
55	2557 - SOTAbots
51	4061 - SciBorgs
47	2147 - CHUCK
38	6831 - A-05 Annex
32	3711 - Iron Mustang
32	3218 - Panther Robotics
32	488 - Team XBot
27	4980 - Canine Crusaders
27	1778 - Chill Out
23	3674 - 4-H / CAM Academy CloverBots
23	4488 - Shockwave
23	4911 - CyberKnights
18	2605 - Seamonsters
14	4125 - Confidential
14	4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
10	1540 - Flaming Chickens
8	2635 - Lake Monsters
8	4915 - Spartronics
8	2521 - SERT
8	2374 - Crusader Bots
8	3024 - My Favorite Team
8	948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
8	1510 - Wildcats
8	847 - PHRED
8	997 - Spartan Robotics
8	4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
8	5920 - VIKotics
8	5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
8	2733 - Pigmice
8	4512 - BEAR bots
8	5468 - Chaos Theory
8	3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
8	360 - The Revolution
8	7034 - 2B Determined
8	2930 - Sonic Squirrels
8	2522 - Royal Robotics
8	1595 - The Dragons
8	1359 - Scalawags
8	492 - Titan Robotics Club
8	3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
8	4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
8	2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
8	3223 - Robotics Of Central Kitsap
8	6465 - Mystic Biscuit
8	2976 - Spartabots
8	4495 - Kittitas County Robotics/ Team...
8	6076 - Mustangs
8	2928 - Viking Robotics
8	6445 - CTEC Robotics
8	6845 - River Bots
8	6443 - AEMBOT
8	4131 - Iron Patriots
7	2944 - Titanium Tigers
Reply With Quote
  #22   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-03-2018, 01:37 AM
Jsteel Jsteel is offline
Registered User
no team
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 46
Jsteel is on a distinguished road
Based on what was communicated during the conference call, I think there are only 26 slots available based on ranking score, with the others going to Chairmans and other ways to auto qualify.
Reply With Quote
  #23   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-03-2018, 10:12 AM
Ian Curtis Ian Curtis is offline
Best Available Data
FRC #1778 (Chill Out!)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Snohomish
Posts: 2,601
Ian Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond reputeIan Curtis has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jsteel View Post
Based on what was communicated during the conference call, I think there are only 26 slots available based on ranking score, with the others going to Chairmans and other ways to auto qualify.
It looks like 24 teams will advance on points alone. Typically the majority of the Chairman's, EI, and RAS teams will have otherwise had enough points to qualify. In the worst case it would be 150 points based on 2017 -- but I would bet the actual cut off is closer to 134 than 150.
__________________
CHILL OUT! | Aero Stability & Control Engineer
It is much easier to call someone else a genius than admit to yourself that you are lazy. - Dave Gingery
Reply With Quote
  #24   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-04-2018, 12:24 AM
nedwards28's Avatar
nedwards28 nedwards28 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Naomi
FRC #4980 (Canine Crusaders)
Team Role: Coach
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Rookie Year: 2013
Location: United States
Posts: 27
nedwards28 is an unknown quantity at this point
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Thanks for posting this. That is interesting to look at as we try to gauge where we are. Shout out to you for your data and hard work. We are fairly young team and this has been a helpful tool as we have been learning exactly how this district point system works.
Reply With Quote
  #25   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 04-04-2018, 03:36 PM
SoftwareBug2.0's Avatar
SoftwareBug2.0 SoftwareBug2.0 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Eric
FRC #1425 (Error Code Xero)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Rookie Year: 2004
Location: Tigard, Oregon
Posts: 550
SoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond reputeSoftwareBug2.0 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by nedwards28 View Post
Thanks for posting this. That is interesting to look at as we try to gauge where we are. Shout out to you for your data and hard work. We are fairly young team and this has been a helpful tool as we have been learning exactly how this district point system works.
I'm glad you're finding this useful. I'm not always right but I try to come close. Speaking of which, since we have the official list of teams at the district championship, I can do my annual meta-analysis to see how my predictions fared:

March 20th predictions:
Code:
Predicted	Actual In	Actual Out
bubble		32		52
in		4		0
out		0		6
~in		27		3
~out		1		29
March 25th predictions:
Code:
Predicted	Actual In	Actual Out
bubble		21		34
in		15		0
out		0		32
~in		27		2
~out		1		22
And since there did turn out to be exactly one decline, my guess of 58 points to make it in turned out to be right.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:56 AM.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi