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View Poll Results: What will the 2018 game's score distribution look like?
2015 0 0%
2016 13 65.00%
2017 3 15.00%
None of the above 4 20.00%
Voters: 20. You may not vote on this poll

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Unread 11-12-2017, 11:48 PM
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Distributions of match scores

Attached are images that represent which match scores have occurred over each of the last three years. Specifically, each pixel is white if a score has occurred and each pixel is black if a score has not occurred. The x axis is the losing score and the y axis is the winning score.

I have a couple more ways to look at the distributions that will have to be in separate posts to avoid the limit on the number of uploads at once.
Attached Thumbnails
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Name:	score_appears_2015.png
Views:	83
Size:	3.3 KB
ID:	22648  Click image for larger version

Name:	score_appears_2016.png
Views:	70
Size:	2.3 KB
ID:	22649  Click image for larger version

Name:	score_appears_2017.png
Views:	86
Size:	6.0 KB
ID:	22650  
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Unread 11-12-2017, 11:53 PM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

The distribution of scores, except that each pixel is a shade of gray to represent the probability of a score, not just that it occurred. Note that the 2017 picture looks much darker since there was one particular score that was so much more common than any other.
Attached Thumbnails
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Name:	score_density_2015.png
Views:	30
Size:	6.3 KB
ID:	22653  Click image for larger version

Name:	score_density_2016.png
Views:	42
Size:	5.1 KB
ID:	22654  Click image for larger version

Name:	score_density_2017.png
Views:	68
Size:	10.5 KB
ID:	22655  
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Unread 11-12-2017, 11:56 PM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

The is the same data as appears in the last post, but in a different format. It's a lot easier to see what's going on with 2017 in this format.

Also, if anyone is interested in the code used to generate these plots I'm willing to release it.
Attached Thumbnails
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Name:	2015_3d.png
Views:	55
Size:	63.6 KB
ID:	22656  Click image for larger version

Name:	2016_3d.png
Views:	31
Size:	178.7 KB
ID:	22657  Click image for larger version

Name:	2017_3d.png
Views:	60
Size:	183.0 KB
ID:	22658  
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Unread 11-13-2017, 12:28 AM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

How about just a few histograms, maybe with a normal curve fit to them if the distribution happens to be normal?
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Unread 11-13-2017, 01:29 AM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickbrickmaster View Post
How about just a few histograms, maybe with a normal curve fit to them if the distribution happens to be normal?
If you scroll down to "Match Score Distribution" on these pages:

https://www.thebluealliance.com/insights/2015
https://www.thebluealliance.com/insights/2016
https://www.thebluealliance.com/insights/2017

You'll see what a normal histogram of the scores looks like. I haven't bothered to run a test of normality, but the conventional wisdom in FRC is that scores aren't normally distributed because there is more of a tail on side of high scores and often a cutoff at 0. Now of course 2017 is even less close to normal because the distribution of scores isn't just skewed but an unusual shape due to the scoring bonus structures.
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Unread 11-13-2017, 06:32 PM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

This is a neat question. It's been obvious the last couple years that the game designs included some "gimme" points, so I doubt we'll see such a 0-dominated game like 2015. I also hope FIRST does less step scoring, so maybe we see more 2016 and less 2017. In general, though, somewhere in that region of distributions is what I think they're aiming for.
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Unread 11-13-2017, 06:40 PM
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Re: Distributions of match scores

I don't think it's all that easy to predict until we find out the scoring mechanics. 2017 is weird, because rotors aren't continuous, leading to the grid-like distribution for that year. 2018 might have similar, discontinuous scoring mechanics (which we'd all prefer not happen, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
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