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  #391   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 12-06-2017, 04:46 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomythicalbeast View Post
Who is this team? It's actually not 125 this time, as I've found out.

EDIT: It's 11, who's registered for Montreal, Mount Olive, Springside Chestnut Hill, and Montgomery.
11 will not be competing at Springside Chestnut Hill. Early in the registration process, we encountered limitations with our Board of Ed. regarding over night trips (Competing at just Mt. Olive, SCH, and Montgomery). We have since then resolved the issue and managed to squeeze into Montreal. We were not interested in a weeks 2,3,4 schedule.
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Unread 12-06-2017, 08:52 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

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Originally Posted by Jon Stratis View Post
1 mile per year? I get that in a 2-hour meeting at our shop!
And some meetings feel like a mile a minute.
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Unread 12-06-2017, 09:59 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

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Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
If each mentor puts in 1 mile per year, then we're ~85.78% of the way to the moon.
It's a rare build session that I don't walk a mile - and then, it's usually because I gave in to the desire to build rather than strictly mentor. If my mentor-walking is at all typical, we're about a quarter of the way to Mars.
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Unread 12-11-2017, 06:23 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Here (left graph) are Veteran teams that haven't returned from last season, by the number of team-years the missing team(s) had under their belts.

There (right chart) are resurrected veteran teams also back this season, by the number of team-years the team(s) already had under their belts.
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Unread 12-11-2017, 07:43 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Mark,

Losing almost 50 Rookie teams seems like a lot. How many rookies were there in 2017 and is this a "normal" percent loss? I assume FIRST is tracking this somewhere.

Of course if I remember our Rookie season it is somewhat amazing we're still around too!
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Unread 12-11-2017, 07:55 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeckler View Post
...

Of course if I remember our Rookie season it is somewhat amazing we're still around too!
QFT. You are not alone.

Amazingly, many rookies overcome the OMG effect, and having drunk the Kool-Aid they are back again year after year.

Attrition is generally the highest among first and second year teams, as Mark's data shows. I think this is true in all areas, but it would be interesting to see the stats broken down by region/district geographic zones. Transient grants have influenced attrition significantly in some instances.
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Unread 12-11-2017, 07:59 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Here is a graph of all the teams FRC has ever lost 1993-2017.
It illustrates a smooth curve directly related to years of team experience.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeckler View Post
Losing almost 50 Rookie teams seems like a lot. How many rookies were there in 2017 and is this a "normal" percent loss?
2017 had 425 new teams, so 2018's loss represents ~11.3% of last season's rookie teams.
The average over all teams lost for previous season rookies is 12.5%, so it's actually a little better than average.
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 12-11-2017 at 08:31 PM.
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Unread 12-11-2017, 09:40 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
Here (left graph) are Veteran teams that haven't returned from last season, by the number of team-years the missing team(s) had under their belts.

There (right chart) are resurrected veteran teams also back this season, by the number of team-years the team(s) already had under their belts.
Caveats!
  • The scale on the left chart is ten times the scale on the right.
  • Years with zero teams missing or returning are not shown; the tails of the curves (especially the right graph) are longer than they first appear.
  • The number of teams which have competed N years is also a declining function of the number of years. While teams with a long history are more likely to continue than a new team, the effect is not nearly as strong as the left plot makes it seem.
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Unread 12-11-2017, 09:56 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by GeeTwo View Post
Caveats!
  • The number of teams which have competed N years is also a declining function of the number of years. While teams with a long history are more likely to continue than a new team, the effect is not nearly as strong as the left plot makes it seem.
I'd be interested in seeing if the same graph could be made up, but instead of # of teams on the y-axis, it's instead percent of teams that are that old
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Unread 12-11-2017, 10:27 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitchhiker 42 View Post
I'd be interested in seeing if the same graph could be made up, but instead of # of teams on the y-axis, it's instead percent of teams that are that old
This sort of thing, maybe with a second column showing the lost teams or a negative column underneath?
These are the 2018 teams registered as of today and how many years they each have played (not exactly how old they are though- skipped years aren't counted. I could do one based on rookie year).
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 12-12-2017 at 09:43 AM.
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Unread 12-12-2017, 12:33 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Here's 2018's gains & losses side-by-side as a percentage of all 2018 teams based on their team-years.
Blues are the new rookies at 0 team-years and the rest are returning teams plus 22 resurrected vets.
Orange are teams lost after playing in 2017.

I should note that there are at least (36) 0-team-year rookies that have also been lost during this years registration period (based on gaps in the rookie team numbering).
There are also a lot of pre-numbered teams who registered as a team, but never signed up for any event.
Putting the 0 team-year losses just behind the 2 team-year losses.
Those who sign up then drop out before kickoff even arrives (some will drop out after kickoff, too) may just be due to giving it insufficient thought, preparation, organization, or planning.
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 12-12-2017 at 02:11 PM. Reason: Flipped Axis Labels
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Unread 12-13-2017, 11:25 AM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
Attrition is generally the highest among first and second year teams, as Mark's data shows. I think this is true in all areas, but it would be interesting to see the stats broken down by region/district geographic zones. Transient grants have influenced attrition significantly in some instances.
Here's a stab at showing what teams were lost from where.
Each color represents a specific number of team-years, e.g., lavender represents teams with 1-year experience.
Colors may be a problem again...
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Last edited by Mark McLeod : 12-13-2017 at 11:38 AM.
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Unread 12-14-2017, 04:27 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
Here's a stab at showing what teams were lost from where.
Each color represents a specific number of team-years, e.g., lavender represents teams with 1-year experience.
Colors may be a problem again...
Wait, Texas lost 16 teams this year? That's a little much, right? I wonder if this is related to districts? Or is it not very much in comparison to the # of teams in TX?
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Unread 12-14-2017, 04:33 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
Wait, Texas lost 16 teams this year? That's a little much, right? I wonder if this is related to districts? Or is it not very much in comparison to the # of teams in TX?
My guess would be that it's, unfortunately, more closely related to the impact of Hurricane Harvey on many Houston and coastal area teams.
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Unread 12-14-2017, 04:34 PM
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Re: Registration 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
Wait, Texas lost 16 teams this year? That's a little much, right? I wonder if this is related to districts? Or is it not very much in comparison to the # of teams in TX?
I don't have the historic data but that doesn't seem that crazy to me, we have had a pretty high turnover rate for a long time the state has been steady around 140-150 teams since around 2011 while gaining rookie teams each year.
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