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  #16   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 03-27-2017, 11:57 AM
Brandon_L Brandon_L is offline
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
This is probably a dumb question, and I assume it must mean I still don't understand FRC Locks (and so is maybe a question for Brandon), but...

Do you know why your predictive method shows a cutoffs in the mid 50s, and frclocks shows teams in red (locked out?) all the way up to 63 points? I had assumed that teams frclocks showed as red were eliminated in even the most favorable distribution of the remaining points, but that doesn't seem consistent with what your method is showing (which has worked really well in the past).
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
It looks to me like FRC Locks thinks that there are only 39 slots at the PNW championship. I believe he has confused the number of teams attending the district championship and the number of teams that advance to worlds from the district.
Someone brought this to my attention and I fixed it. I had the number of DCMP slots for peachtree and PNW swapped. It is now correct and shows down to rank 25 as locked, and some teams that were locked out are now back on the bubble where they should be.

Please, if anyone as any questions, even if you think they're "dumb", feel free to PM me. Thats why my name links to my chief account at the bottom of the web page . It could be just you misunderstanding something and I'd happily explain, or like in this case it could be my fault.

While I'm here, might as well give my thoughts on PNW:
The lowest ranked team I have locked in has 82 points.
The highest ranked team I have locked out has 52 points.

This tells me obviously that the cutoff is somewhere between but not including those numbers (usually on the lower end).

With two events left its rough to estimate but I would say somewhere around 55, so I agree with SoftwareBug2.0's prediction
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FRC 2495 - Hamilton West Robotics [2007-2014] - 2013 Seneca Winner; 2014 Lenape Quality Award, MAR DCMP alliance captain, H.E.R.E. Captain & Winner
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frclocks.com

Last edited by Brandon_L : 03-27-2017 at 12:15 PM.
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Unread 04-02-2017, 06:33 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Its official.

Code:
1		1595 
2		5803 
3		3238 
4		4915 
5		2471 
6		2046 
7		4488 
8		1425 
9		5920 
10		492 
11		2990 
12		2930 
13		2550 
14		1294 
15		3663 
16		1778 
17		4061 
18		3024 
19		6445 
20		4918 
21		2907 
22		2928 
23		3674 
24		4513 
25		5970 
26		4173 
27		955 
28		5198 
29		3219 
30		4662 
31		4125 
32		5975 
33		1540 
34		6343 
35		5827 
36		4450 
37		753 
38		948 
39		3711 
40		2811 
41		5588 
42		5468 
43		5450 
44		4469 
45		4911 
46		2910 
47		4495 
48		5295 
49		2147 
50		957 
51		997 
52		3223 
53		5937 
54		2374 
55		5085 
56		2148 
57		3393 
58		3693 
59		3070 
60		6350 
61              2557
62              1318
63              2521
64              2980
Point cutoff was 59pts. 61-64 are all DCA.
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Unread 04-04-2017, 04:31 PM
John Bottenberg John Bottenberg is offline
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikLast View Post
Its official.

Code:
1		1595 
2		5803 
3		3238 
4		4915 
5		2471 
6		2046 
7		4488 
8		1425 
9		5920 
10		492 
11		2990 
12		2930 
13		2550 
14		1294 
15		3663 
16		1778 
17		4061 
18		3024 
19		6445 
20		4918 
21		2907 
22		2928 
23		3674 
24		4513 
25		5970 
26		4173 
27		955 
28		5198 
29		3219 
30		4662 
31		4125 
32		5975 
33		1540 
34		6343 
35		5827 
36		4450 
37		753 
38		948 
39		3711 
40		2811 
41		5588 
42		5468 
43		5450 
44		4469 
45		4911 
46		2910 
47		4495 
48		5295 
49		2147 
50		957 
51		997 
52		3223 
53		5937 
54		2374 
55		5085 
56		2148 
57		3393 
58		3693 
59		3070 
60		6350 
61              2557
62              1318
63              2521
64              2980
Point cutoff was 59pts. 61-64 are all DCA.
This didn't actually turn out to be the official list. 5937 and 2148 declined invitiations ( Hope to see you next year!) and 4131 and 488 were added on.

I was thinking we should start a thread about the PNW District Championship once the Fantasy FIRST draft begins. I have no idea how they do this, but those Fantasy FIRST guys seem to know exactly when the event attendee list becomes official. We should create it in the Regional Competitions sub-forum, since threads in there actually show up in the portal and therefore get way more hits. I've noticed that the DCMP threads in the "District Event" sub-forum have proportionally dismal rate of activity and they're normally just back-and-forth between the few users who know where to find these threads. This is a district championship. The casual users of this site, including those who don't log in and can't change their portal settings, deserve to hear and participate in the chatter about this event just as much as they need to hear about the Northeastern Manitoba Hudson Bay Regional Sponsored by York Factories.

End rant.
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Unread 04-04-2017, 04:57 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Bottenberg View Post
This didn't actually turn out to be the official list. 5937 and 2148 declined invitiations ( Hope to see you next year!) and 4131 and 488 were added on.
That was at the end of Auburn, basically the moment FIRST said "Its official."

I may just start a DCMP thread now, load in is tomorrow...
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Unread 04-04-2017, 06:22 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Bottenberg View Post

I was thinking we should start a thread about the PNW District Championship once the Fantasy FIRST draft begins. I have no idea how they do this, but those Fantasy FIRST guys seem to know exactly when the event attendee list becomes official.
We plan to draft the week of the event, or as soon as the list looks like it has enough teams. On the scheduled day, we draft. Works pretty well, huh?
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Unread 04-04-2017, 10:54 PM
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2017

Here's my annual summary of how well the predictions fared:

March 19 predictions:
Code:
Predicted	Actual In	Actual Out
bubble		28		34
in		4		0
out		0		8
~in		29		5
~out		5		42
March 26 predictions:
Code:
Predicted	Actual In	Actual Out
bubble		18		36
in		19		0
out		1		34
~in		27		4
~out		1		15
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