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Unread 03-28-2017, 09:37 AM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

The Michigan FIRST Robotics facebook page posted the event in Saginaw as having 160 teams. Can anyone confirm the number of teams to be invited and if the algorithm uses that total or something else? (We are on the bubble for the second year in a row!)
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Unread 03-28-2017, 09:54 AM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by RuffEva View Post
The Michigan FIRST Robotics facebook page posted the event in Saginaw as having 160 teams. Can anyone confirm the number of teams to be invited and if the algorithm uses that total or something else? (We are on the bubble for the second year in a row!)
I didn't realize this was last year's thread until I got down to this last note.

Phew. My son is a mentor on 5234 and I've been pulling for his team to make it to MSC. With 160 teams attending, it seems like they should be on the bubble based on their two districts. My heart sunk when I searched for their number and read "117 out 5234 - MarauderBots"

Anyone going to do this analysis this year? I know there are still 2 weeks of competitions left but it still would be good to have some idea where the cutoff is going to fall this year.

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Unread 03-28-2017, 10:51 AM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
Per Basel A's request, I'm projecting the field for the Michigan State Championship.

I'm following the same methodology as I've used in projecting the teams in the PNW district. For example, see here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=145965

Best of luck to everyone still competing.

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 57
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 106
Best estimate: 69
{'bubble': 87, 'out': 92, '~in': 63, '~out': 155, 'in': 14}
0       in      85 - B.O.B. (Built on Brains) 
1       in      1023 - Bedford Express 
2       in      3534 - House of Cards 
3       in      3546 - Buc'n'Gears 
4       in      2137 - TORC 
5       in      5926 - MooBotics 
6       in      1918 - NC GEARS 
7       in      5460 - Strike Zone 
8       in      3602 - RoboMos 
9       in      5114 - Titanium Tigers 
10      in      5980 - East Grand Rapids Robotics 
11      in      6193 - The Legend of Robotics 
12      in      503 - Frog Force 
13      in      3618 - Petoskey Paladins 
14      ~in     107 - Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. 
15      ~in     3538 - RoboJackets 
16      ~in     5448 - CC Automationeers 
17      ~in     2619 - The Charge 
18      ~in     6098 - bIrobot 
19      ~in     123 - Team - Cosmos 
20      ~in     548 - Robostangs 
21      ~in     3656 - Dreadbots 
22      ~in     6086 - Ignition 
23      ~in     4381 - Twisted Devils 
24      ~in     5150 - Hybrid Hornets 
25      ~in     1481 - The Riveters 
26      ~in     3548 - RoboRavens2 
27      ~in     3655 - Tractor Technicians 
28      ~in     5053 - Lakers 
29      ~in     5155 - Bearcats 
30      ~in     1701 - RoboCubs 
31      ~in     5222 - JackBotics 
32      ~in     5502 - Cobrots 
33      ~in     2959 - Robotarians 
34      ~in     1250 - Gator-Bots 
35      ~in     4680 - Az-Tech Eagles 
36      ~in     3098 - The Captains 
37      ~in     2611 - Jacktown Vectors 
38      ~in     3770 - BlitzCreek 
39      ~in     1684 - Chimeras 
40      ~in     4003 - TriSonics 
41      ~in     5166 - Fabricators 
42      ~in     5084 - FridgeBot Inc. 
43      ~in     2612 - The Corsairs 
44      ~in     5712 - Hemlock's Gray Matter 
45      ~in     5167 - Vi-Bots 
46      ~in     2834 - Bionic Black Hawks 
47      ~in     4377 - Boyne City Blaze 
48      ~in     1025 - IMPIS 
49      ~in     5203 - Volatile Chaos Inhibitors 
50      ~in     5048 - Spartronics 
51      ~in     2586 - Copper Bots 
52      ~in     67 - The HOT Team 
53      ~in     2767 - Stryke Force 
54      ~in     3604 - Goon Squad 
55      ~in     4391 - BraveBots 
56      ~in     33 - Killer Bees 
57      ~in     5843 - Flurb 
58      ~in     3620 - Average Joes 
59      ~in     27 - Team RUSH 
60      ~in     308 - The Monsters 
61      ~in     2832 - The Livonia Warriors 
62      ~in     3535 - Galaktech Invaders 
63      ~in     4376 - Raydernators 
64      ~in     3357 - COMETS 
65      ~in     1188 - RoboRavens1 
66      ~in     4384 - Benzene Bots 
67      bubble  6085 - Devil Bots 
68      bubble  2960 - automation nation 
69      bubble  5046 - Jacked Up Jackets 
70      ~out    3658 - Robo - Beavers 
71      ~in     70 - More Martians 
72      ~out    4453 - The Red Hot Chili Bots 
73      ~out    5710 - The O-Bots 
74      ~out    4130 - The Blue Devils 
75      ~out    5610 - Saugatuck Robotics 
76      ~out    1506 - Metal Muscle 
77      ~out    141 - WOBOT 
78      ~out    857 - Superior Roboworks 
79      ~out    904 - D cubed 
80      ~out    5509 - Like a Boss. 
81      ~out    5462 - 2PawR (2 Paw Robotics) 
82      ~in     494 - Martians 
83      ~out    5238 - Falconators 
84      out     5915 - Mercy Midnight Storm 
85      ~out    5534 - Onaway Onabots 
86      ~in     5505 - V2 Robotics 
87      ~out    1189 - The Gearheads 
88      out     6067 - Underdogs 
89      ~in     3707 - Brighton TechnoDogs 
90      ~out    2405 - Techno Trojans 
91      ~in     2054 - Tech Vikes 
92      ~in     217 - ThunderChickens 
93      out     5860 - Full Metal Muskrats 
94      out     5675 - WiredCats 
95      out     5661 - RoboCards 
96      ~out    4956 - Robosharks 
97      ~out    2604 - Metal and Soul 
98      bubble  5907 - Shambots 
99      ~out    245 - Adambots 
100     ~in     3688 - Norsemen 
101     ~out    3667 - Mecanum Knights 
102     ~in     5050 - Cow Town Robotics 
103     bubble  6081 - Digital Dislocators 
104     bubble  6097 - Botcats 
105     bubble  5878 - The Great Lakers 
106     out     280 - TnT 
107     out     5069 - The Iron Giants 
108     ~in     3452 - GreengineerZ 
109     ~in     3886 - More Titans 
110     out     6071 - Bot Central 
111     out     5547 - The Talons 
112     out     4004 - M.A.R.S. Rovers 
113     out     4779 - RoboSapiens 
114     out     5248 - Robo-Saxons 
115     out     5623 - Robotic Rams 
116     out     6020 - JGHS 
117     out     5234 - MarauderBots 
118     bubble  6075 - Leland Zebrotics 
119     out     2048 - The Pink Panthers 
120     bubble  858 - Demons 
121     out     4237 - Team Lance-A-Bot 
122     bubble  6121 - Robo Vikes 
123     bubble  1718 - The Fighting Pi 
124     out     4994 - Kingston Robo-Cards 
125     bubble  5567 - Code Red Robotics 
126     bubble  6002 - ZooBOTix 
127     bubble  6190 - Will-er Run 
128     out     6066 - Rambler Robotics 
129     bubble  5194 - Voltage 
130     out     818 - Steel Armadillos 
131     out     3570 - Pheonix 
132     out     1 - The Juggernauts 
133     bubble  573 - Mech Warriors 
134     bubble  1711 - Raptors 
135     out     1502 - Technical Difficulties 
136     out     5216 - E-Ville Empire 
137     out     5447 - Team Robotica 
138     out     6043 - Allegan Tigers Robotics Team 
139     out     5066 - Singularity 
140     out     5561 - Raider Robotics 
141     out     5473 - Team Spitfire. 
142     out     5560 - Central Lake Trobotics 
143     out     6073 - Cav-Bots 
144     out     6094 - Manic Mechanics 
145     bubble  469 - Las Guerrillas 
146     out     5260 - Owosso Operating System 
147     out     3547 - VIRUS 
148     bubble  3668 - TroBots 
149     out     3175 - Knight Vision 
150     out     4368 - BullBots 
151     out     3603 - Cyber Coyotes 
152     out     815 - Advanced Power 
153     out     5436 - Cyber Cats 
154     bubble  3617 - Cold Logic 
155     bubble  4835 - Junkyard Dawgs 
156     bubble  4967 - That ONE Team 
157     out     5056 - MegaHurtz 
158     out     5224 - Panther Power 
159     out     216 - More RoboDawgs 
160     bubble  4362 - Gems 
161     bubble  3641 - The Flying Toasters 
162     out     5478 - Pershing Doughbots 
163     bubble  201 - The FEDS 
164     out     5229 - Heritage Hawkbots 
165     out     1254 - Tech Force 
166     bubble  6090 - Wayland Wildcats 
167     bubble  2474 - Excel 
168     bubble  3767 - Titan Robotics 
169     out     3632 - D-Techs 
170     out     6152 - ROBO-FALCONS 
171     bubble  2337 - EngiNERDs 
172     out     453 - Rockem Sockem Robotics 
173     bubble  862 - Lightning Robotics 
174     out     5756 - R.E.C'in Crew 
175     bubble  5901 - Cougars 
176     bubble  5230 - The Resistance 
177     bubble  1076 - Pi Hi Samurai 
178     out     288 - The RoboDawgs 
179     bubble  68 - Truck Town Thunder 
180     bubble  6089 - Annapolis Cougars 
181     out     1243 - Dragons 
182     out     5487 - Tiger Robotics 
183     out     6137 - Red Theory 
184     bubble  94 - The Technojays 
185     bubble  5524 - MacroProcessors 
186     bubble  910 - The Foley Freeze 
187     out     5660 - A.R.T. Atherton Robotics Team 
188     out     5674 - The GEARHOUNDS 
189     bubble  3875 - Red Storm Robotics 
190     out     5161 - Trojan Technicians 
191     out     5612 - RoboRaptors 
192     bubble  5555 - Spartans 
193     bubble  51 - The Wings of Fire 
194     out     6119 - Puma's 
195     bubble  470 - Grizzly Robotics 
196     out     5193 - Pantheon 
197     bubble  894 - Chargers 
198     bubble  2075 - Enigma Robotics 
199     bubble  3414 - Hackbots 
200     bubble  6117 - Team Eagle 
201     bubble  4325 - RoboRangers 
202     bubble  5662 - A Flock of Nerds 
203     out     314 - The Megatron Oracles 
204     out     5175 - Robo Panthers 
205     bubble  5470 - Broncos 
206     bubble  4970 - ICE Cubed 
207     bubble  4819 - Flat Mountain Mechanics 
208     out     5486 - Robotic Turmoil 
209     bubble  5963 - CA Frost High School 
210     bubble  6128 - Hart Pirates 
211     bubble  5692 - ChiefBots 
212     bubble  1596 - The Instigators 
213     bubble  5067 - Steiner Steel Storm 
214     bubble  4810 - I AM Robot 
215     bubble  3539 - Byting Bulldogs 
216     out     5182 - Chieftainators 
217     out     4983 - IronBots 
218     out     5688 - Robo Knights 
219     out     5708 - Zebrotics 
220     bubble  5709 - Rudyard Nerf Herders 
221     bubble  4392 - The Deceivers 
222     bubble  2673 - Tenacious Technicians 
223     out     5784 - Vulcans 
224     ~out    6113 - M.A.R.C. 1 
225     ~out    6096 - UPSM Cobras 
226     bubble  4216 - Blue Ops Robotics 
227     bubble  5256 - Atomic Vikings 
228     bubble  302 - The Dragons 
229     bubble  2851 - Crevolution 
230     bubble  5424 - Rogue Robots 
231     bubble  5697 - Bearcats 
232     bubble  1322 - Genesee Robotics Area Youth Te... 
233     ~out    6112 - Stang Nation 
234     out     5251 - WAYbots 
235     bubble  5217 - Robocats 
236     bubble  3773 - Cobalt Commanders 
237     bubble  5525 - Tool Cats 
238     bubble  3542 - S.P.E.E.D 
239     out     313 - The Bionic Zebras 
240     out     5703 - Eagles Crew 
241     bubble  74 - Team C.H.A.O.S. 
242     bubble  5246 - Tech Tribe 
243     bubble  2620 - Titans 
244     out     5156 - Laker Robots 
245     out     5501 - Bobcats 
246     out     5704 - Blended Learning Academies 
247     out     5575 - SHOCK 
248     ~out    6065 - Titanium Dragons 
249     ~out    6208 - Mechstangs 
250     bubble  5072 - Raider Robotics 
251     bubble  703 - Team Phoenix 
252     bubble  3322 - Eagle Imperium 
253     ~out    5622 - Green Hornets 
254     ~out    6093 - Unplugged 
255     bubble  66 - Grizzly Robotics 
256     ~out    5535 - Bionic Bison 
257     ~out    5853 - FEAR The Termigators 
258     ~out    6087 - Cybertronic Lancers 
259     bubble  5152 - Alotobots 
260     bubble  226 - Hammerheads 
261     out     5282 - Railroaders 
262     ~out    6120 - Cyberstangs 
263     ~out    6100 - MSMohawks 
264     ~out    6102 - Mustangs 
265     ~out    5989 - Panthers 
266     ~out    6150 - BlueBotics 
267     ~out    6078 - RoboRams 
268     bubble  830 - The RatPack 
269     bubble  3572 - Wavelength 
270     bubble  4776 - S.C.O.T.S. Bots 
271     out     5226 - Syn. Surgers 
272     out     5201 - Bronco Bots 
273     ~out    6099 - Knight Riders 
274     bubble  5014 - Wildcats 
275     out     4408 - The Robo Panthers 
276     out     244 - RoboDawgs 3D 
277     out     3537 - Delta Force 
278     out     5694 - Hamady Hawks 
279     ~out    5695 - Heavy Duty Eagles 
280     ~out    6114 - Do the Thing 
281     ~out    6019 - Lapeer Homeschool 
282     ~out    6088 - Stephenson Eagles 
283     ~out    6138 - Bulldogs 
284     bubble  4961 - Shock and Awe-sum 
285     bubble  3568 - RoboEagles 
286     ~out    6092 - Q-Bots 
287     ~out    6074 - RoscoBots 
288     ~out    6033 - Gaget Agents 
289     ~out    6122 - Bear Lake 
290     ~out    6108 - DRAGONBOTS 
291     ~out    6079 - Mech Tech 
292     ~out    4855 - Ramageddon 
293     ~out    5774 - Maximum Overload 
294     out     5538 - Vikingbots 
295     ~out    5531 - Orange Crush 
296     ~out    5577 - Kinematic Wolves 
297     ~out    5562 - Laker Logistics 
298     ~out    5642 - Mumford Mustangs 
299     ~out    5650 - Carbonite Crusaders 
300     ~out    6116 - Cougar Robotics 
301     ~out    5927 - iCademy Globetrotters 
302     ~out    5982 - Circuits of Destruction 
303     ~out    3302 - TurboTrojans 
304     ~out    247 - Da Bears 
305     out     5231 - Radical Jays 
306     out     5017 - Pirates 
307     ~out    5745 - Gearheads 
308     ~out    5517 - District 5517 The Engineers on... 
309     ~out    4482 - Intelligent Design [ID Robotic... 
310     ~out    6091 - Eagle 1 
311     ~out    6053 - Magi Pride 
312     ~out    5247 - Red Devil Robotics 
313     ~out    5559 - Gear Grinders 
314     ~out    5467 - RoboTractors 
315     ~out    6011 - Cyber Trojans 
316     ~out    5504 - The Loose Connections 
317     out     4768 - Comets 
318     out     5227 - Eagle Elite 
319     ~out    3398 - Crushing Crusaders 
320     ~out    4827 - Minerbotics 
321     out     5183 - Devil Bots 
322     ~out    5676 - Robo-Hornets 
323     ~out    5530 - The Lawnmowers 
324     ~out    5685 - Robo Terriers 
325     ~out    5713 - Beecher Cyber Bucs 
326     out     4998 - TESLA 
327     ~out    1504 - Desperate Penguins 
328     ~out    4398 - Imprimis Deo 
329     out     5173 - Robohawks 
330     out     5214 - The Mighty CavBots 
331     ~out    4380 - Dynomite 
332     ~out    5263 - Robo-Bucs 
333     ~out    5144 - P.R.E.D.A.T.O.R.S 
334     ~out    835 - The Sting 
335     ~out    4815 - ELECTROPANTHERS 
336     ~out    5641 - Eagles 
337     ~out    5532 - The G.O.A.T.S 
338     ~out    5527 - Cyber Phoenix 
339     ~out    4988 - Yooper Troopers 
340     out     4758 - RoboBlazers 
341     ~out    4851 - JungleBots 
342     ~out    4715 - Big Bay Black Bears 
343     ~out    5498 - Wired Devils 
344     ~out    5603 - Rise of the Warrior Bots 
345     ~out    5706 - Tahquamenon Phenomenon 
346     ~out    5711 - Battling Bathers 
347     ~out    5090 - Torque-Nados 
348     ~out    4811 - Majestic Eagles 
349     ~out    5235 - Gears of Fortune 
350     ~out    5664 - Big Red Robotics 
351     ~out    5702 - Robotawatomis 
352     ~out    5619 - Jaguars 
353     ~out    1896 - Concussive Engineers 
354     ~out    4854 - Trobots 
355     ~out    5574 - P.A.N.T.H.E.R.S. 
356     ~out    5533 - Electric Horse Power 
357     ~out    6005 - Cardinaltronics 
358     ~out    6013 - Robowolves 
359     ~out    6029 - The Railbots 
360     ~out    6057 - Team Edsel 
361     ~out    6077 - Wiking Kujon 
362     ~out    6101 - RoboRaid 
363     ~out    6136 - Ravens 
364     ~out    5213 - St. Ignace SHIELD 
365     ~out    468 - Aftershock 
366     ~out    5068 - The Outsiders 
367     ~out    4409 - Ground Zero 
368     ~out    5204 - Robocats 
369     ~out    4327 - Q Branch 
370     ~out    5316 - The Architects 
371     ~out    5205 - CHS FullMetal-Jackets 
372     ~out    4390 - ATA Coregears 
373     ~out    5162 - The Big Red Theory 
374     ~out    1677 - Quantum Ninjas 
375     out     5255 - Robotic Tigers 
376     ~out    3619 - Blackhawks 
377     ~out    4737 - Atomigators 
378     ~out    240 - Tempest 
379     ~out    4337 - R 13 
380     ~out    322 - Team F.I.R.E. 
381     ~out    2145 - HAZMATs 
382     ~out    2591 - RedTails 
383     ~out    2224 - RoboPhoenix 
384     ~out    4507 - TARminators 
385     ~out    4405 - The Atoms Family 
386     ~out    5197 - DCP @ NW 
387     ~out    4375 - Westend Gearbusters 
388     ~out    3096 - The Village Bulldogs 
389     ~out    4568 - Robot Commander 
390     ~out    1940 - The Tech Tigers 
391     ~out    3458 - Code Blue 
392     ~out    5314 - Ice Bots 
393     ~out    5215 - Steagles 
394     ~out    5523 - RoboWarriors 
395     ~out    5714 - Ojibwe Bots 
396     ~out    5225 - The Shambotz 
397     ~out    2676 - Ecorse Robo Raiders 
398     ~out    5239 - Harper Woods Pioneers 
399     ~out    5257 - CometKaze 
400     ~out    1528 - MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics) 
401     ~out    2246 - The Army of Sum 
402     ~out    2771 - Code Red Robotics / Stray Dogs 
403     ~out    3234 - Red Arrows 
404     ~out    3536 - Electro Eagles 
405     ~out    4395 - Dundee Vi-Borgs 
406     ~out    4840 - The Panthers 
407     ~out    5008 - (robo)LIONS 
408     ~out    5065 - Knights 
409     ~out    5086 - Cadillac Connectors 
410     ~out    5110 - Elks
I'm on team 5980 and i'm super glad to see you have us as 10 but i'm curious why you would have trisonics 4003 at 40 even after they won lakeview and made it to finals at west michigan?
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Unread 03-28-2017, 10:52 AM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Yes 160 is the total.

4 divisions of 40.

There will be an algorithm that is used to place teams in divisions, but the factors taken into account are not known (by me atleast).

Last projection run done by Basel from 3322, was right around the 60-65 point mark. Could be different depending on how many chairman's teams are above or below that cut off line.
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Unread 03-28-2017, 11:20 AM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by NathanStro View Post
I'm on team 5980 and i'm super glad to see you have us as 10 but i'm curious why you would have trisonics 4003 at 40 even after they won lakeview and made it to finals at west michigan?
Could it be this is last year's data?
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Unread 03-28-2017, 12:33 PM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
I didn't realize this was last year's thread until I got down to this last note.

Phew. My son is a mentor on 5234 and I've been pulling for his team to make it to MSC. With 160 teams attending, it seems like they should be on the bubble based on their two districts. My heart sunk when I searched for their number and read "117 out 5234 - MarauderBots"

Anyone going to do this analysis this year? I know there are still 2 weeks of competitions left but it still would be good to have some idea where the cutoff is going to fall this year.

Dr. Joe J.
I did an analysis of the Points Cutoff for FiM this year and posted it yesterday here.

I just predicted the points cutoff rather than making a list of this sort. It would be relatively simple to make such a list but I don't think it has much use, especially to teams that have yet to play their second or even first event. I have found it much less defeating to think at a competition "we need [x] points" rather than "yeah someone said we're probably out of it" particularly because the points gained at each event don't have nearly as strong of a correlation as one would need to assume in order to make a list like this.
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Unread 03-28-2017, 02:48 PM
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Michigan State Championship Projections 2017

Since there's been a bit of confusion in last year's thread (https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=146321) I thought I would run my predictions for MSC this year.

I'm using the same methodology as I did to predict MSC last year, and that I've been using the predict the PNW district championship every year (https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=156957)

Key:
Code:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 40
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 102
Best estimate: 57
{'bubble': 190, 'out': 55, '~in': 76, '~out': 110, 'in': 20}
0	in	2619 - The Charge 
1	in	5053 - Lakers 
2	in	3620 - Average Joes 
3	in	33 - Killer Bees 
4	in	4003 - TriSonics 
5	in	1025 - IMPI Robotics 
6	in	5675 - WiredCats 
7	in	1481 - The Riveters 
8	in	5166 - Fabricators 
9	in	3770 - BlitzCreek 
10	in	894 - THE POWER CHARGERS 
11	in	494 - Martians 
12	in	3656 - Dreadbots 
13	in	1506 - Metal Muscle 
14	in	3538 - RoboJackets 
15	in	1322 - Genesee Robotics Area Youth Te... 
16	in	6753 - CBA RoboKings 
17	in	5980 - East Grand Rapids Robotics 
18	in	67 - The HOT Team 
19	in	245 - Adambots 
20	~in	2611 - Jacktown Vectors 
21	~in	3546 - Buc'n'Gears 
22	~in	5205 - FullMetal-Jackets 
23	~in	2137 - TORC 
24	~in	4327 - Q Branch 
25	~in	5915 - Mercy Midnight Storm 
26	~in	1023 - Bedford Express 
27	~in	5462 - 2PawR (2 Paw Robotics) 
28	~in	85 - B.O.B. (Built on Brains) 
29	~in	6618 - WARHBOTS 
30	~in	1701 - RoboCubs 
31	~in	5114 - Titanium Tigers 
32	~in	6117 - Wingspan 
33	~in	68 - Truck Town Thunder 
34	~in	3535 - Galaktech Invaders 
35	~in	70 - More Martians 
36	~in	5204 - Robocats 
37	~in	4325 - RoboRangers 
38	~in	4237 - Team Lance-A-Bot 
39	~in	548 - Robostangs 
40	~in	5067 - Steiner Steel Storm 
41	~in	4680 - Az-Tech Eagles 
42	~in	4216 - Blue Ops Robotics 
43	~in	5603 - Rise of the Warrior Bots 
44	~in	1188 - RoboRavens 
45	~in	6425 - Coldwater Cardinals 
46	~in	308 - The Monsters 
47	~in	6548 - Perry High School Ramblers 
48	~in	2832 - The Livonia Warriors 
49	~in	123 - Team - Cosmos 
50	~in	1918 - NC GEARS 
51	~in	5086 - Cadillac Connectors 
52	~in	6086 - Ignition 
53	~in	469 - Las Guerrillas 
54	~in	5756 - R.E.C'in Crew 
55	~in	1940 - The Tech Tigers 
56	~in	3357 - COMETS 
57	~in	5567 - Code Red Robotics 
58	~in	2767 - Stryke Force 
59	~in	3655 - Tractor Technicians 
60	~in	4381 - Twisted Devils 
61	~in	2474 - Excel 
62	~in	5561 - Raider Robotics 
63	~in	3604 - Goon Squad 
64	~in	2960 - Automation Nation 
65	~in	6101 - Strange Quarks 
66	~in	5623 - Robotic Rams 
67	~in	27 - Team RUSH 
68	~in	6066 - Rambler Robotics 
69	~in	141 - WOBOT 
70	~in	5144 - P.R.E.D.A.T.O.R.S 
71	~in	107 - Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. 
72	~in	1250 - Gator-Bots 
73	~in	6108 - DRAGONBOTS 
74	~in	5173 - Robohawks 
75	~in	6193 - The Legend of Robotics 
76	~in	5090 - Torque-Nados 
77	~in	503 - Frog Force 
78	~in	2834 - Bionic Black Hawks 
79	~in	5248 - Robo-Saxons 
80	~in	5530 - The Lawnmowers 
81	~in	1504 - Desperate Penguins 
82	~in	5901 - Cougars 
83	~in	6545 - Tawas Braves 
84	~in	94 - The Ninetyfouriors 
85	~in	4391 - BraveBots 
86	~in	5610 - Turbulence (Saugatuck Robotic... 
87	bubble	4851 - JungleBots 
88	bubble	5927 - iCademy Globetrotters 
89	bubble	5234 - MarauderBots 
90	~in	302 - The Dragons 
91	~out	2959 - Robotarians 
92	~out	5674 - The Gearhounds 
93	~in	2612 - The Corsairs 
94	~out	5577 - Kinematic Wolves 
95	~out	5183 - Devil Bots 
96	~out	5222 - JackBotics 
97	~out	5559 - Gear Grinders 
98	~in	1243 - Dragons 
99	~out	5501 - Bobcats 
100	~in	2145 - HAZMATs 
101	~in	51 - Wings of Fire 
102	~out	4453 - The Red Hot Chili Bots 
103	~out	3602 - RoboMos 
104	~in	910 - The Foley Freeze 
105	~out	1076 - Pi Hi Samurai 
106	~out	3322 - Eagle Imperium 
107	~out	6002 - ZooBOTix 
108	~out	5676 - The H.E.R.O.E.S 
109	~out	4395 - Dundee Vi-Borgs 
110	~in	5150 - Hybrid Hornets 
111	~in	2075 - Enigma Robotics 
112	~in	5436 - Cyber Cats 
113	~out	5467 - RoboTractors 
114	~out	3668 - TroBots 
115	~out	6071 - Bot Central 
116	~out	3572 - Wavelength 
117	bubble	3875 - Red Storm Robotics 
118	~out	5194 - Gobles Voltage 
119	out	6570 - Whiteford Bobcats 
120	bubble	5066 - Singularity 
121	bubble	862 - Lightning Robotics 
122	bubble	2337 - EngiNERDs 
123	bubble	6075 - Leland Zebrotics 
124	~out	815 - Advanced Power 
125	~out	4819 - Flat Mountain Mechanics 
126	~out	5498 - Wired Devils 
127	out	6589 - Cardinal.EXE 
128	~out	5661 - RoboCards 
129	bubble	5505 - V2 Robotics 
130	bubble	4405 - The Atoms Family 
131	bubble	2771 - Code Red Robotics the Stray Do... 
132	~out	5316 - The Architects 
133	bubble	3618 - Petoskey Paladins 
134	~out	5535 - Bionic Bison 
135	~out	6067 - Underdogs 
136	~out	5227 - Eagle Elite 
137	bubble	6569 - Gladiators 
138	bubble	857 - Superior Roboworks 
139	bubble	5509 - Like a Boss. 
140	bubble	226 - Hammerheads 
141	out	6085 - Green Devil Bots 
142	bubble	6538 - Linc-Bots 
143	out	6627 - Nordic Knights Robotics 
144	~out	4737 - Atomigators 
145	bubble	5072 - Raider Robotics 
146	bubble	4779 - RoboSapiens 
147	bubble	5215 - Steagles 
148	out	6043 - Allegan Tigers Robotics Team 
149	out	6150 - BlueBotics 
150	~out	5524 - MacroProcessors 
151	bubble	1718 - The Fighting Pi 
152	bubble	6615 - Belleville Tigers 
153	bubble	904 - D cubed 
154	~out	2673 - Tenacious Technicians 
155	~out	5533 - Electric Horse Power 
156	bubble	3539 - Byting Bulldogs 
157	bubble	5843 - Flurb 
158	bubble	6098 - bIrobot 
159	~out	5708 - Zebrotics 
160	~out	5084 - Corunna Robotics Team FridgeBo... 
161	bubble	6344 - Yale Jiggawattz 
162	bubble	3767 - TITAN 
163	bubble	830 - The RatPack 
164	bubble	4810 - I AM Robot 
165	bubble	4970 - ICE Cubed 
166	bubble	5424 - Rogue Robots 
167	out	6033 - Gaget Agents 
168	bubble	6637 - Wolf Robotics 
169	out	5152 - Alotobots 
170	bubble	573 - Mech Warriors 
171	bubble	4811 - Majestic Eagles 
172	bubble	3534 - House of Cards 
173	bubble	3542 - S.P.E.E.D 
174	bubble	66 - Grizzly Robotics 
175	out	5713 - Beecher Cyber Bucs 
176	bubble	6633 - Robo-Elephants 
177	out	2405 - Techno Trojans 
178	out	6594 - VIKING NATION 
179	bubble	6020 - JGHS 
180	bubble	6053 - Robusters 
181	bubble	470 - Grizzly Robotics 
182	out	453 - Rockem Sockem Robotics 
183	out	6136 - Ravens 
184	out	6580 - Griffons 
185	bubble	2586 - Copper Bots 
186	bubble	5155 - Bearcats 
187	bubble	74 - Team C.H.A.O.S. 
188	bubble	2054 - Tech Vikes 
189	bubble	818 - Steel Armadillos 
190	bubble	201 - The FEDS 
191	bubble	5256 - Atomic Vikings 
192	bubble	314 - The Megatron Oracles 
193	out	5710 - The O-Bots 
194	bubble	4409 - Ground Zero 
195	bubble	5860 - Full Metal Muskrats 
196	bubble	4961 - Shock and Awe-sum 
197	bubble	1684 - Chimeras 
198	out	6073 - Cav-Bots 
199	bubble	4004 - M.A.R.S. Rovers 
200	out	322 - Team F.I.R.E. 
201	bubble	4983 - IronBots 
202	bubble	1596 - The Instigators 
203	bubble	3570 - Pheonix 
204	out	5448 - CC Automationeers 
205	bubble	5878 - The Great Lakers 
206	out	6588 - Lawton High School 
207	out	6635 - JPEC Falcons 
208	bubble	5460 - Strike Zone 
209	bubble	6561 - Omecha Wolf Pack 
210	out	1528 - MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics) 
211	bubble	6558 - Aluminum Sting 
212	bubble	3452 - GreengineerZ 
213	bubble	6077 - Wiking Kujon 
214	out	4568 - Robot Commander 
215	out	6559 - Bay-Arenac 
216	out	5263 - Robo-Bucs 
217	out	6568 - Decatur Robotics Team 
218	bubble	5560 - Central Lake Trobotics 
219	bubble	4392 - The Deceivers 
220	bubble	1711 - Raptors 
221	bubble	5260 - Owosso Operating System 
222	bubble	6088 - Stephenson Eagles 
223	bubble	6121 - Robo Vikes 
224	bubble	5046 - Jacked Up Jackets 
225	bubble	6556 - Waldron Bot Heads 
226	bubble	3098 - The Captains 
227	bubble	5709 - Rudyard Nerf Herders 
228	bubble	6081 - Digital Dislocators 
229	bubble	5230 - The Resistance 
230	bubble	5989 - Panthers 
231	bubble	2048 - The Pink Panthers 
232	bubble	6566 - Lamphere Robotics 
233	out	6592 - Sexton Redbots 
234	bubble	244 - RoboDawgs 3D 
235	bubble	3175 - Knight Vision 
236	out	5641 - Eagles 
237	out	5214 - The Mighty CavBots 
238	bubble	5926 - Da MOOse 
239	out	6091 - Eagle 1 
240	bubble	5502 - Cobrots 
241	bubble	6099 - Knight Riders 
242	out	1254 - Tech Force 
243	bubble	3688 - Norsemen 
244	out	2620 - Titans 
245	bubble	4815 - ELECTROPANTHERS 
246	bubble	3667 - Mecanum Knights 
247	bubble	703 - Team Phoenix 
248	bubble	6102 - Mustangs 
249	out	240 - Tempest 
250	bubble	5547 - The Talons 
251	bubble	5612 - RoboRaptors 
252	bubble	1189 - The Gearheads 
253	bubble	6087 - Cybertronic Lancers 
254	out	6119 - Prototype Pumas 
255	out	6138 - Bulldogs 
256	bubble	6493 - Red Steel 
257	bubble	3096 - The Village Bulldogs 
258	bubble	5622 - Green Hornets 
259	bubble	5703 - Eagles Crew 
260	bubble	6113 - M.A.R.C. 1 
261	out	5282 - Railroaders 
262	bubble	5712 - Hemlock's Gray Matter 
263	bubble	4994 - Kingston Robo-Cards 
264	bubble	3603 - Cyber Coyotes 
265	bubble	4967 - That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers 
266	out	6094 - Manic Mechanics 
267	out	6610 - Robot Roll Call 
268	bubble	6528 - Terror Byte{s} 
269	bubble	5201 - North Branch Bad News Broncos 
270	bubble	5774 - Maximum Overload 
271	bubble	5660 - A.R.T. Atherton Robotics Team 
272	bubble	5162 - The Big Red Theory 
273	bubble	3707 - TechnoDogs 
274	bubble	5239 - Harper Woods Pioneers 
275	bubble	4130 - The Blue Devils 
276	out	5182 - Chieftainators 
277	out	5225 - The Shambotz 
278	out	5161 - Trojan Technicians 
279	out	6092 - Q-Bots 
280	out	6128 - The Automatics 
281	out	6011 - Cyber Trojans 
282	bubble	6599 - Northport Wildcats 
283	bubble	6591 - Stockbridge Panthers 
284	bubble	6550 - Wildcat Robotics 
285	bubble	6567 - Lake Shore High School 
286	bubble	5216 - E-Ville Empire 
287	bubble	6638 - Fulton Pirates 
288	bubble	6611 - Au Gres Robotics 
289	bubble	3547 - VIRUS 
290	bubble	5534 - Onaway Onabots 
291	out	5685 - Robo Terriers 
292	bubble	6582 - Vestabots 
293	bubble	1502 - Technical Difficulties 
294	bubble	6090 - Wayland Wildcats 
295	out	4408 - The Robo Panthers 
296	bubble	6531 - Redhawks 
297	bubble	6557 - Vikings 
298	bubble	6533 - Beaver Tech 
299	bubble	6571 - Lakeview Wildcats 
300	bubble	6631 - Reese Rockets High School Robo... 
301	bubble	6065 - Titanium Dragons 
302	out	3658 - Robo - Beavers 
303	bubble	247 - Da Bears 
304	~out	6552 - Robocats 
305	~out	6573 - Alanson Vikings 
306	~out	6581 - Hancock Bulldogs 
307	bubble	5702 - Robotawatomi 
308	bubble	3536 - Electro Eagles 
309	bubble	5050 - Cow Town Robotics 
310	bubble	4375 - Westend Gearbusters 
311	bubble	6089 - Cyber Cougars 
312	bubble	5982 - Circuits of Destruction 
313	~out	6345 - Nimrod Nation 
314	out	4758 - RoboBlazers 
315	bubble	6093 - Unplugged 
316	~out	6534 - Saints Scholars 
317	~out	6428 - STEMINEERS 
318	bubble	3641 - The Flying Toasters 
319	~out	6595 - QUAKE 
320	~out	6532 - Ben Carson Blue Jays 
321	~out	6649 - CHA Circuits 
322	bubble	5706 - Tahquamenon Phenomenon 
323	bubble	5527 - Cyber Phoenix 
324	bubble	4376 - Raydernators 
325	out	5619 - Jaguars 
326	bubble	6078 - RoboRams 
327	bubble	5907 - CC Shambots 
328	bubble	2604 - Metal and Soul 
329	~out	6642 - Harrison Hornets 
330	~out	6583 - Human Error 
331	bubble	5697 - Bearcats 
332	bubble	4998 - TESLA 
333	out	4854 - Trobots 
334	out	4838 - Panthers 
335	out	5532 - The G.O.A.T.S 
336	bubble	5470 - The Cowpunchers 
337	bubble	6074 - RoscoBots 
338	bubble	6122 - Bear Lake 
339	bubble	6013 - Robowolves 
340	~out	6597 - Eagles 
341	bubble	5531 - Orange Crush 
342	bubble	5213 - St. Ignace SHIELD 
343	out	313 - The Bionic Zebras 
344	out	468 - Aftershock 
345	bubble	5555 - Spartans 
346	bubble	5175 - Robo Panthers 
347	bubble	5478 - Pershing Doughbots 
348	~out	6100 - MSMohawks 
349	bubble	4380 - Dynomite 
350	~out	6190 - Will-er Run 
351	bubble	5203 - Volatile Chaos Inhibitors 
352	bubble	5193 - Pantheon 
353	out	5447 - Team Robotica 
354	bubble	2246 - The Army of Sum 
355	bubble	280 - TnT 
356	bubble	1896 - Concussive Engineers 
357	bubble	2224 - RoboPhoenix 
358	~out	6116 - Cougar Robotics 
359	~out	6114 - Do the Thing 
360	~out	6029 - Railbots 
361	bubble	4988 - Yooper Troopers 
362	bubble	5238 - Falconators 
363	out	5065 - Knights 
364	bubble	5255 - Robotic Tigers 
365	bubble	5314 - Ice Bots 
366	bubble	5486 - Robotic Turmoil 
367	bubble	4482 - ID Robotics 
368	bubble	4390 - ATA Coregears 
369	bubble	3773 - Cobalt Commanders 
370	bubble	3537 - Delta Force 
371	bubble	5662 - A Flock of Nerds 
372	~out	6019 - Metabots 
373	~out	6005 - Cardinaltronics 
374	~out	6096 - UPSM Cobras 
375	~out	5853 - FEAR The Termigators 
376	~out	6079 - Mech Tech 
377	bubble	4855 - Ramageddon 
378	bubble	3302 - TurboTrojans 
379	bubble	5069 - The Iron Giants 
380	bubble	5487 - Tiger Robotics 
381	bubble	5714 - Accidental Success 
382	bubble	4827 - Minerbotics 
383	bubble	5197 - DCP @ NW 
384	~out	5963 - CA Frost High School 
385	bubble	858 - Demons 
386	~out	6338 - DRIVING STEEL 
387	~out	6549 - caseville eagles 
388	~out	6600 - Baldwin Panthers 
389	~out	6616 - Mechanical Pumas 
390	~out	6742 - Blue Jays 
391	bubble	216 - More RoboDawgs 
392	bubble	4398 - Imprimis Deo 
393	bubble	5229 - Heritage Hawkbots 
394	bubble	5473 - Team Spitfire. 
395	bubble	5231 - Radical Jays 
396	bubble	2676 - Ecorse Robo Raiders 
397	bubble	3632 - D-Techs 
398	bubble	835 - The Sting 
399	bubble	1 - The Juggernauts 
400	bubble	4384 - Benzene Bots 
401	bubble	4715 - Big Bay de Noc Bear Bots 
402	~out	6057 - Thunderbots 
403	~out	6112 - Cyberstangs 
404	~out	6097 - Botcats 
405	~out	4337 - R 13 
406	~out	4956 - Robosharks 
407	~out	4362 - Gems 
408	~out	5167 - Vi-Bots 
409	~out	5257 - CometKaze 
410	~out	5504 - The Loose Connections 
411	~out	4835 - Junkyard Dawgs 
412	~out	4507 - TARminators 
413	~out	5642 - Mumford Mustangs 
414	~out	5525 - Alcona Tool Cats 
415	~out	5517 - District 5517 The Engineers on... 
416	~out	4840 - The Panthers 
417	~out	5704 - Blended Learning Academies 
418	~out	5235 - Gears of Fortune 
419	~out	1677 - Quantum Ninjas 
420	~out	5247 - Red Devil Robotics 
421	~out	5562 - Laker Logistics 
422	~out	3458 - Code Blue 
423	~out	5056 - MegaHurtz 
424	~out	4382 - Team Trobot 
425	~out	3568 - RoboEagles 
426	~out	5156 - Laker Robots 
427	~out	3234 - Red Arrows 
428	~out	5688 - Robo Cats 
429	~out	3398 - Crushing Crusaders 
430	~out	3617 - Cold Logic 
431	~out	6120 - Cyberstangs 
432	~out	6152 - ROBO-FALCONS 
433	~out	288 - The RoboDawgs 
434	~out	5251 - C3 WAYbots 
435	~out	5664 - Big Red Robotics 
436	~out	217 - ThunderChickens 
437	~out	2591 - RedTails 
438	~out	2851 - Crevolution 
439	~out	3414 - Hackbots 
440	~out	3619 - Blackhawks 
441	~out	4377 - Boyne City Blaze 
442	~out	4768 - Comets 
443	~out	4776 - S.C.O.T.S. Bots 
444	~out	5048 - Spartronics 
445	~out	5110 - Robo Herd 
446	~out	5217 - Robocats 
447	~out	5523 - RoboWarriors 
448	~out	5538 - Vikingbots 
449	~out	5694 - Hamady Hawks 
450	~out	5695 - Heavy Duty Eagles
I am aware that Orthofort has also made an effort to forecast what the district point cutoff will be. See here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=157248 Our estimates of the cutoff are slightly different, but my methodology has tended to skew slightly low and his estimate is well within the range that I consider to be likely.
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Unread 03-28-2017, 02:50 PM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
I didn't realize this was last year's thread until I got down to this last note.

Phew. My son is a mentor on 5234 and I've been pulling for his team to make it to MSC. With 160 teams attending, it seems like they should be on the bubble based on their two districts. My heart sunk when I searched for their number and read "117 out 5234 - MarauderBots"

Anyone going to do this analysis this year? I know there are still 2 weeks of competitions left but it still would be good to have some idea where the cutoff is going to fall this year.

Dr. Joe J.
Here you go: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s....php?p=1665843
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Unread 03-30-2017, 02:47 PM
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Re: Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Johnson View Post
I didn't realize this was last year's thread until I got down to this last note.

Phew. My son is a mentor on 5234 and I've been pulling for his team to make it to MSC. With 160 teams attending, it seems like they should be on the bubble based on their two districts. My heart sunk when I searched for their number and read "117 out 5234 - MarauderBots"

Anyone going to do this analysis this year? I know there are still 2 weeks of competitions left but it still would be good to have some idea where the cutoff is going to fall this year.

Dr. Joe J.

Thank you for the shout out! Trust me, we have done so many scenario numbers it is insane. Some say we are out, some say we are in, some say we are on the bubble. Most of what we have calculated state we are on the bubble. We would LOVE to finally get there this year, and we have certainly worked harder than any years past. It's pretty much a wait and see at this point. The email we got from FIM yesterday even said some say mid-50's will go, some say mid-60's will go. Regardless we put in our PO payment to go if we do happen to make it or are let in if someone doesn't make their payment.

Again, thanks for watching out for us! We hope to be there!

Team 5234!
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

That ONE Team just won chairman's and first place at kentwood with iron giants and stryke force, which puts us and stryke force waaay in and iron giants in as well I think?
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey Jordan View Post
That ONE Team just won chairman's and first place at kentwood with iron giants and stryke force, which puts us and stryke force waaay in and iron giants in as well I think?
60 district points is not a safe bet. All the points from next week have to go somewhere.

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https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...31&postcount=3

Last edited by Nyxyxylyth : 04-01-2017 at 10:33 PM.
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Unread 04-09-2017, 08:09 PM
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

61 is the magic number.... we have 60 and did not make it... sitting in 159th, cutoff is now at 156th....

Hoping for a miracle...
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Unread 04-09-2017, 08:11 PM
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Seb View Post
61 is the magic number.... we have 60 and did not make it... sitting in 159th, cutoff is now at 156th....

Hoping for a miracle...
From what I heard one or two teams have already declined, so you could definitely make it. You're only 4th in line so I'd be ready in case you get the call.
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Unread 04-10-2017, 10:44 AM
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

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Originally Posted by Basel A View Post
From what I heard one or two teams have already declined, so you could definitely make it.
How would we know if we're being allowed in? Because my team got placed two ranks away from the cutoff and reading this makes me really excited that we could go!
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Unread 04-10-2017, 10:59 AM
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Re: 2017 Michigan State Championship Projections

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Originally Posted by TheWorld View Post
How would we know if we're being allowed in? Because my team got placed two ranks away from the cutoff and reading this makes me really excited that we could go!
You'll know when your team's main and/or alternate contact is contacted.
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