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Unread 07-11-2018, 10:12 AM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
Updated projections with the new team list (no 2363). No really huge changes, I just wanted to make it easier to compare with future projections.
2363 is still attending IRI. Not sure why they fell off the TBA list.

Some of these predictions are spicy, to say the least. I find it interesting that 2056 and 2590 have near equal chances of seeding despite 2056 going 17 for 17 on 90 point endgames on Tesla, while 2590 went 12 for 16...

Last edited by jtrv : 07-11-2018 at 10:30 AM.
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Unread 07-11-2018, 10:24 AM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

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Originally Posted by TheBoulderite View Post
Prove him wrong, Team Appreciate.
I just ran 100000 simulations and 2468 seeded first in 26 of them, so there is hope. Feeling like doc strange over here:

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Unread 07-11-2018, 10:30 AM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

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Originally Posted by tmpoles View Post
I wonder if there's a way that you can take into account things other than pure stats...this works super well for in season events, but offseason is hard because robots/drivers can change spontaneously.

tldr please make an AI that can consider everything ever

Looking forward to comparing this to how it actually shakes out!
Meh, AIs are overhyped: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=165122
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Unread 07-11-2018, 10:48 AM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
I'm surprised by how confident people seem to be that 2056 will seed first. They may well be the favorites, but I'd take the rest of the field over them to seed first in a heartbeat. Indeed, every team except 2468 managed to seed first in at least one of my simulations.
I'm expecting that the ranking point spread at the top will be very narrow such that one good or bad match by any one of a dozen teams will result in large swings in their position, even toward the end of quals. Certainly this was the case with Turing. I think there are a large number of teams that have the capability of getting both of the bonus RPs in every match so their RP average will be based on the W-L ranking points. That will depend to a large degree on the luck of the schedule and other intangibles.
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Unread 07-11-2018, 03:14 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
2363 is still attending IRI. Not sure why they fell off the TBA list.

Some of these predictions are spicy, to say the least. I find it interesting that 2056 and 2590 have near equal chances of seeding despite 2056 going 17 for 17 on 90 point endgames on Tesla, while 2590 went 12 for 16...
It's all part of our strategy. I everyone thinks we aren't attending then they won't see us coming!

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Unread 07-11-2018, 03:37 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
Meh, AIs are overhyped
There's a quote that seems relevant here:
"When you're raising money, it's ML. When you're hiring developers, it's AI. When you're actually doing it, it's statistics."

The attribution is vague and there's a lot of versions of that quote floating around both the CMU statistics department and the statistics community in general, but there's a lot of insight there.
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Unread 07-11-2018, 03:55 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
2363 is still attending IRI. Not sure why they fell off the TBA list.

Some of these predictions are spicy, to say the least. I find it interesting that 2056 and 2590 have near equal chances of seeding despite 2056 going 17 for 17 on 90 point endgames on Tesla, while 2590 went 12 for 16...
Maybe 2363 is not listed because someone at TBA is beginning the process of banishing notmattlythgoe to the shadow realm.

IMO he shouldn't be banished. My opinion may or may not be based on the awesome intake video his team made.

And just because they accidentally came off the list, I would really like them to win finals so the joke can be that they won without even making it in

My ranking projection for 2363 is somewhere between 23 and 63.
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Unread 07-11-2018, 04:39 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomithy View Post
Maybe 2363 is not listed because someone at TBA is beginning the process of banishing notmattlythgoe to the shadow realm.

IMO he shouldn't be banished. My opinion may or may not be based on the awesome intake video his team made.

And just because they accidentally came off the list, I would really like them to win finals so the joke can be that they won without even making it in

My ranking projection for 2363 is somewhere between 23 and 63.
They were purged from the official FRC event list, which TBA gets data from (not for every offseason). https://frc-events.firstinspires.org/2018/IRI
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Unread 07-11-2018, 07:02 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

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Originally Posted by jtrv View Post
They were purged from the official FRC event list, which TBA gets data from (not for every offseason). https://frc-events.firstinspires.org/2018/IRI
Interesting
Anyone know how that was accidentally done?
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Unread 07-12-2018, 06:15 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

I think this may be undervaluing the skill 3357's robot, definitely one of the top contenders i will be looking out for this weekend.
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Unread 07-12-2018, 06:47 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Post schedule update?
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Unread 07-12-2018, 07:30 PM
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Updated projections with the preliminary schedule:

Code:
Team	average rank	1 seed	Top 4	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15
2056	6.8		25%	56%	76%	82%	88%
3707	13.4		7%	28%	48%	58%	67%
118	14.1		7%	25%	44%	57%	66%
67	14.3		10%	27%	46%	54%	65%
2590	14.4		4%	21%	42%	54%	63%
319	14.7		5%	23%	43%	54%	64%
1619	14.8		8%	24%	44%	52%	64%
225	16.8		4%	17%	32%	48%	55%
195	17.4		4%	18%	32%	47%	52%
5406	20.6		2%	12%	27%	35%	45%
4028	22.3		2%	9%	21%	32%	40%
624	22.4		2%	9%	20%	32%	39%
2791	22.4		2%	9%	21%	32%	38%
3357	22.7		2%	9%	19%	31%	40%
133	23.6		1%	8%	18%	30%	38%
694	24.1		2%	8%	17%	28%	35%
359	24.4		1%	6%	15%	26%	33%
1640	24.4		1%	7%	17%	28%	36%
20	24.5		1%	6%	15%	27%	35%
217	25.0		1%	7%	16%	26%	33%
1806	25.8		1%	7%	16%	26%	33%
1706	26.8		1%	5%	12%	22%	29%
3452	27.4		1%	6%	13%	23%	27%
865	28.9		1%	4%	10%	18%	23%
3538	29.5		1%	4%	10%	18%	24%
2834	30.4		1%	4%	9%	18%	22%
340	30.7		1%	4%	10%	17%	23%
868	32.0		0%	3%	7%	15%	19%
1747	32.4		0%	3%	7%	13%	19%
245	33.0		0%	2%	7%	13%	18%
2771	34.0		0%	2%	5%	11%	15%
234	35.1		0%	2%	4%	10%	12%
2481	35.3		0%	2%	6%	11%	16%
2614	35.4		0%	2%	5%	9%	14%
1102	35.4		0%	2%	5%	11%	15%
708	35.6		0%	2%	5%	11%	14%
1533	36.5		0%	2%	5%	9%	13%
33	37.6		0%	2%	5%	9%	13%
1741	37.7		0%	2%	4%	8%	11%
1024	39.3		0%	1%	3%	7%	10%
4944	39.9		0%	1%	3%	6%	9%
1710	40.9		0%	1%	3%	6%	9%
494	41.8		0%	1%	2%	5%	7%
3478	42.0		0%	1%	3%	6%	8%
2168	42.2		0%	1%	3%	5%	8%
4587	43.2		0%	1%	1%	4%	6%
4265	43.3		0%	1%	2%	5%	7%
2337	43.4		0%	1%	2%	5%	7%
4967	43.7		0%	0%	2%	3%	5%
2655	43.8		0%	1%	2%	4%	7%
1218	43.8		0%	1%	2%	4%	6%
1720	45.8		0%	0%	1%	3%	4%
5254	45.9		0%	0%	2%	3%	5%
384	46.1		0%	1%	1%	3%	5%
469	46.3		0%	0%	1%	3%	4%
1731	46.4		0%	0%	1%	3%	5%
3641	46.8		0%	0%	1%	3%	5%
3847	47.6		0%	0%	1%	3%	5%
88	48.4		0%	0%	1%	2%	4%
829	48.8		0%	0%	1%	2%	3%
2451	49.7		0%	0%	1%	2%	3%
302	51.7		0%	0%	1%	2%	2%
2826	52.7		0%	0%	0%	1%	2%
3940	54.2		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
6800	54.6		0%	0%	0%	1%	2%
2013	56.0		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
2468	56.5		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
2363	57.0		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
1746	59.5		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4499	61.1		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Change in probabilities since prior to schedule release:
Code:
Team	average rank	1 seed	Top 4	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	schedule strength
20	-18.06		+0.7%	+5.1%	+11.6%	+21.1%	+26.4%	78.45%
33	+4.10		-0.3%	-0.7%	-2.6%	-3.2%	-4.7%	44.01%
67	-4.12		+5.1%	+8.7%	+15.3%	+7.8%	+13.2%	60.22%
88	+2.76		-0.1%	-0.4%	-1.3%	-2.1%	-1.7%	46.48%
118	-2.12		+0.8%	+3.5%	+7.2%	+5.4%	+6.6%	56.02%
133	-3.18		+0.1%	+1.4%	+1.5%	+5.8%	+5.7%	56.17%
195	+1.37		-1.2%	-1.9%	-4.8%	-3.9%	-8.4%	48.34%
217	+0.57		-0.7%	-2.6%	-4.6%	-3.3%	-3.4%	49.22%
225	-1.91		+0.8%	+2.3%	+2.6%	+6.9%	+2.6%	54.94%
234	+8.05		-0.8%	-4.6%	-9.1%	-14.0%	-18.0%	37.01%
245	-2.68		-0.0%	+0.2%	+0.2%	+1.9%	+2.5%	55.23%
302	+12.40		-0.3%	-1.5%	-4.3%	-6.6%	-9.3%	30.30%
319	-3.44		+1.3%	+6.3%	+11.5%	+8.3%	+9.3%	58.59%
340	-1.14		-0.1%	+0.1%	-0.4%	+1.6%	+1.9%	52.59%
359	-3.36		-0.1%	+0.7%	+1.3%	+3.7%	+3.4%	56.39%
384	+1.48		-0.1%	-0.3%	-1.3%	-1.6%	-1.2%	48.73%
469	-0.32		-0.0%	+0.0%	-0.1%	+0.2%	-0.5%	51.81%
494	+7.55		-0.4%	-2.0%	-5.8%	-7.9%	-10.2%	38.47%
624	+4.56		-3.9%	-11.3%	-12.8%	-16.5%	-14.9%	41.26%
694	-4.36		+0.6%	+2.1%	+2.6%	+6.3%	+7.7%	57.76%
708	-5.13		+0.2%	+0.9%	+2.1%	+4.9%	+4.9%	59.38%
829	+3.69		-0.1%	-0.5%	-1.7%	-2.3%	-2.9%	44.92%
865	-0.58		-0.2%	-0.4%	-2.0%	-0.1%	-2.3%	51.45%
868	+1.53		-0.6%	-1.7%	-3.4%	-2.5%	-4.7%	48.12%
1024	-2.22		-0.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	+1.2%	+1.0%	54.71%
1102	-6.26		-0.0%	+0.7%	+1.8%	+4.6%	+5.5%	61.10%
1218	+5.35		-0.1%	-0.8%	-2.8%	-3.6%	-5.5%	41.90%
1533	+3.38		-0.3%	-1.2%	-3.7%	-3.4%	-5.3%	45.15%
1619	+0.19		+0.6%	-2.3%	+2.7%	-6.5%	-0.2%	50.93%
1640	-13.10		+0.8%	+5.5%	+10.7%	+19.2%	+22.8%	71.57%
1706	-4.19		+0.0%	+0.7%	+0.5%	+4.5%	+5.9%	57.57%
1710	-6.04		+0.0%	+0.5%	+1.0%	+2.7%	+4.4%	61.52%
1720	-2.37		-0.0%	-0.0%	-0.2%	+0.5%	+0.5%	56.10%
1731	+12.37		-0.4%	-2.4%	-7.2%	-10.1%	-12.6%	30.98%
1741	+7.61		-0.4%	-2.7%	-6.5%	-9.4%	-13.8%	38.18%
1746	+7.40		-0.0%	-0.3%	-1.0%	-1.8%	-2.2%	35.12%
1747	-2.61		-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.7%	+1.2%	+2.3%	55.04%
1806	-14.80		+0.9%	+4.9%	+11.1%	+18.0%	+23.1%	73.39%
2013	+11.87		-0.1%	-0.6%	-2.5%	-4.0%	-5.3%	29.05%
2056	-3.27		+10.2%	+14.5%	+18.1%	+8.3%	+9.6%	64.79%
2168	-1.59		-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%	+0.1%	+1.1%	53.83%
2337	+10.17		-0.5%	-2.7%	-6.9%	-9.5%	-12.1%	34.35%
2451	+7.81		-0.1%	-0.9%	-2.8%	-4.1%	-5.5%	37.63%
2468	+1.56		+0.0%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.3%	47.67%
2481	+3.66		-0.7%	-2.7%	-5.4%	-6.8%	-5.9%	44.76%
2590	+3.71		-12.2%	-20.4%	-14.0%	-18.5%	-12.5%	39.70%
2614	-4.48		+0.0%	+0.1%	-0.1%	+1.7%	+3.2%	58.38%
2655	-6.33		+0.0%	+0.2%	+0.6%	+1.9%	+3.2%	62.50%
2771	-6.41		+0.1%	+0.7%	+1.5%	+4.6%	+5.6%	61.52%
2791	+0.93		-0.8%	-2.1%	-1.9%	-5.0%	-6.4%	48.85%
2826	+0.31		-0.0%	-0.2%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.7%	51.52%
2834	-6.76		+0.2%	+1.7%	+3.4%	+8.2%	+8.6%	61.77%
3357	+0.74		-0.3%	-1.9%	-4.8%	-2.7%	-3.5%	49.03%
3452	+0.83		-0.3%	-0.4%	-2.8%	-1.1%	-4.3%	49.30%
3478	+11.11		-0.6%	-3.2%	-8.4%	-11.6%	-14.7%	33.21%
3538	-1.89		-0.2%	-0.6%	-0.9%	+1.5%	+1.9%	53.78%
3641	+10.33		-0.2%	-1.3%	-4.3%	-6.2%	-9.2%	33.64%
3707	-8.93		+5.2%	+17.1%	+25.3%	+24.8%	+25.9%	69.22%
3847	-0.00		-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.6%	-0.6%	-0.3%	51.39%
3940	+6.03		-0.0%	-0.4%	-1.2%	-1.9%	-3.0%	40.21%
4028	-3.19		+0.4%	+1.6%	+4.8%	+4.0%	+5.4%	56.46%
4265	+4.35		-0.1%	-0.7%	-1.9%	-2.8%	-4.7%	43.55%
4499	+5.60		-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.4%	-0.9%	-1.2%	37.44%
4587	-0.68		-0.1%	-0.3%	-1.2%	-1.0%	-1.1%	52.71%
4944	-5.86		-0.0%	+0.1%	+0.6%	+1.9%	+2.8%	61.35%
4967	+2.58		-0.1%	-0.5%	-1.1%	-1.6%	-3.6%	46.38%
5254	-3.00		+0.0%	+0.1%	+0.3%	+0.7%	+1.0%	56.91%
5406	+0.48		-1.1%	-3.0%	+0.4%	-5.9%	-2.7%	49.61%
6800	+0.91		-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	49.62%
I'm still playing around with how to combine the full ranking predictions for a team into a single "strength of schedule" number. Haven't really settled on anything yet. The above SoS is the probability that the given team will rank as good or better with this schedule than they would have with a random schedule according to my simulator. This metric has some notable flaws (weird stuff for teams expected to seed first or last, average value is >50%, etc...) but it's my best idea for a single metric at the moment.

According to this metric, 20, 1806, and 1640 have the best schedules and 2013, 302, and 1731 have the worst schedules. If someone wants to go through these teams and see if their schedules actually look good/bad and let me know what you think that'd be cool.
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
I'm still playing around with how to combine the full ranking predictions for a team into a single "strength of schedule" number. Haven't really settled on anything yet. The above SoS is the probability that the given team will rank as good or better with this schedule than they would have with a random schedule according to my simulator. This metric has some notable flaws (weird stuff for teams expected to seed first or last, average value is >50%, etc...) but it's my best idea for a single metric at the moment.

According to this metric, 20, 1806, and 1640 have the best schedules and 2013, 302, and 1731 have the worst schedules. If someone wants to go through these teams and see if their schedules actually look good/bad and let me know what you think that'd be cool.
What if Strength of Schedule was derived for each team as their expected record without them playing their own schedule... So maybe average ELO or OPR or whatever metric of your alliance partners versus your opponents.
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Projections as of match 30:

Code:
Team	average rank	1 seed	Top 4	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15
2056	3.7		40%	75%	89%	95%	97%
1619	9.9		6%	32%	53%	71%	79%
694	10.3		7%	29%	53%	68%	78%
4028	10.7		6%	29%	51%	67%	76%
67	11.3		7%	28%	49%	65%	74%
2655	11.5		5%	24%	44%	62%	72%
319	11.6		7%	27%	48%	63%	72%
865	12.2		6%	23%	43%	59%	69%
133	14.8		2%	14%	32%	49%	59%
3707	16.0		0%	8%	26%	42%	55%
217	16.4		0%	5%	21%	35%	49%
1806	16.7		1%	11%	26%	42%	52%
3357	16.9		2%	12%	28%	41%	52%
2826	17.1		2%	10%	24%	38%	49%
3538	17.6		2%	11%	25%	40%	49%
5406	18.1		1%	9%	23%	37%	50%
1706	18.2		1%	5%	17%	33%	45%
225	18.3		0%	5%	20%	33%	48%
1533	19.4		1%	8%	18%	32%	41%
33	19.7		1%	7%	18%	31%	40%
624	20.1		1%	4%	13%	26%	36%
195	20.6		0%	5%	15%	28%	36%
1024	21.7		1%	6%	14%	25%	33%
2771	21.7		0%	4%	13%	25%	33%
469	26.6		0%	3%	8%	16%	22%
340	28.2		0%	1%	4%	8%	14%
118	29.0		0%	0%	3%	7%	12%
2614	29.1		0%	1%	3%	8%	14%
3452	29.7		0%	0%	3%	6%	12%
868	30.6		0%	1%	4%	8%	12%
3478	32.1		0%	0%	3%	6%	10%
1741	32.9		0%	1%	3%	7%	10%
5254	34.6		0%	0%	1%	3%	5%
2834	36.0		0%	0%	1%	3%	6%
2451	36.1		0%	0%	1%	3%	4%
88	36.2		0%	0%	1%	2%	4%
2168	36.3		0%	0%	1%	3%	5%
4587	37.7		0%	0%	1%	2%	3%
1102	38.5		0%	0%	1%	2%	4%
4944	38.6		0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
2481	38.7		0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
494	40.9		0%	0%	0%	1%	2%
2791	42.6		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
1710	43.7		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
4967	44.2		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3641	44.6		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2337	45.0		0%	0%	0%	1%	1%
4265	45.5		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
302	46.0		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
708	46.7		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2590	47.6		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1731	47.7		0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1218	47.9		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
20	48.8		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
234	49.9		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3847	50.5		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
384	51.2		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
245	51.6		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1720	55.8		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
359	56.0		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1747	56.6		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4499	58.8		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1746	59.9		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2013	63.3		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1640	63.8		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6800	64.4		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2363	65.1		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2468	66.8		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3940	67.0		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
829	67.7		0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
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Re: IRI ranking projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by efoote868 View Post
What if Strength of Schedule was derived for each team as their expected record without them playing their own schedule... So maybe average ELO or OPR or whatever metric of your alliance partners versus your opponents.
I'll be making a whole thread on Strength of Schedule after IRI, so check that out and I'll have a more detailed response for you.
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