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Unread 03-12-2018, 11:38 AM
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[paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis



2018 raw component score data for all matches through 3/11/2018


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Unread 03-12-2018, 12:32 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis



highest alliance scores as of 3/11/2018


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Unread 03-12-2018, 12:45 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis



largest winning margin as of 0311


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Unread 03-12-2018, 12:59 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Thanks again, Russ, for providing data that we can play with.

Some quick observations:

Typical match score: 346-191

Outlier match score: 456-81 (two-sigma away from typical)

Typical winning margin: 155

Outlier winning margin: 375

254's average winning margin in qualifying: 253 (c'mon guys!)

254's average winning margin, all matches: 279
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Unread 03-12-2018, 02:33 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
Russ
hmmm.



More related, in terms of interpreting this: Has anyone looked into doing an OPR-style calculation, except using the win (or -loss) margin as the output variable for the alliance? AKA, given a certain alliance member, what's their expected contribution to the spread? I might give it a shot this if I manage to find time this week, but curious if anyone's ahead of me already.
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Unread 03-12-2018, 02:40 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by gerthworm View Post
More related, in terms of interpreting this: Has anyone looked into doing an OPR-style calculation, except using the win (or -loss) margin as the output variable for the alliance? AKA, given a certain alliance member, what's their expected contribution to the spread? I might give it a shot this if I manage to find time this week, but curious if anyone's ahead of me already.
What you are describing sounds to me like CCWM, or calculated contribution to the winning margin. See the most recent presentation here for a more detailed description.
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Unread 03-12-2018, 02:41 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Code:
	Blue AutoQuest		Red AutoQuest		Total	 		Blue Face The Boss	Red Face The Boss	Total		
Week	Yes	No		Yes	No		Yes	No		Yes	No		Yes	No		Yes	No	
1	537	1439	27.18%	521	1455	26.37%	1058	2894	26.77%	59	1917	2.99%	70	1906	3.54%	129	3823	3.26%
2	670	1701	28.26%	654	1717	27.58%	1324	3418	27.92%	68	2303	2.87%	67	2304	2.83%	135	4607	2.85%
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Unread 03-12-2018, 03:17 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by gerthworm View Post
Russ Ether is not a robot. He is a real systems engineer. He happens to reside in the same corner of Michigan that I do, and has volunteered many times at our local FRC kickoffs and district competitions.

Many others have expressed skepticism about the above, citing the uncanny resemblance between his CD posts and those that one might expect from an AI.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gerthworm View Post
... curious if anyone's ahead of me already.
Google "calculated contribution to winning margin."

You'll find that a few here on CD are ahead of you, and Nate Silver is ahead of them.
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Last edited by Richard Wallace : 03-12-2018 at 10:26 PM.
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Unread 03-12-2018, 04:25 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
Russ Ether is not a robot. He a real systems engineer. He happens to reside in the same corner of Michigan that I do, and has volunteered many times at our local FRC kickoffs and district competitions.

Many others have expressed skepticism about the above, citing the uncanny resemblance between his CD posts and those that one might expect from an AI.
haha, oh dear . I have no doubt of his personhood - I had always assumed a level of mystery due to the lack of team #, location, etc., yet vast technical knowledge and wisdom... (To me, even the username "ether" implied some level of mystery). He has helped me greatly in many problems, I wish to meet him in person some day!

Rich & Caleb, Thanks also for the reference. I recall seeing that thread but hadn't dug into it too much yet. Will do so!
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Unread 03-12-2018, 09:17 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

4944's robot this year is a switch/vault bot and we did really well at the vault at Utah. I sorted teams based on average vault score and I thought I'd share the top 25 just for fun! We ended up at #11 out of the 1929 teams who have competed so far which is pretty good. Also, interestingly 0 teams this season have ended every match with 9 cubes in the vault (which would be a perfect score of averaging 45). I thought at least one would have accomplished this.

Code:
Rank	Best Vault Teams	Score
1	frc7225	44.33333333
2	frc5846	43.57142857
3	frc4557	42.85714286
4	frc7179	41.78571429
5	frc4272	41.42857143
6	frc5720	40.90909091
7	frc6411	40.90909091
8	frc7041	40.55555556
9	frc2016	40.3125
10	frc6618	40
11	frc4944	39.61538462
12	frc222	39.44444444
13	frc5531	39.0625
14	frc6628	38.46153846
15	frc6823	38.21428571
16	frc573	37.94117647
17	frc3397	37.85714286
18	frc3276	37.8125
19	frc610	37.77777778
20	frc5232	37.69230769
21	frc1024	37.5
22	frc5572	37.5
23	frc1731	37.5
24	frc4903	37.35294118
25	frc2171	37.1875
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Unread 03-13-2018, 02:38 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis



2018 raw component score data for all matches through 3/13/2018


THANK YOU to Eugene Fang and Phil Lopreiato for their amazing TBA database and API


4593 matches,49 events,2002 teams

3831 qual matches
437 quarterfinal matches
219 semifinal matches
106 final matches

includes all of week1, plus all of week2 except 2018bcvi (Canadian Pacific Regional) which does not complete until March 16th.



Last edited by Ether : 03-13-2018 at 02:51 PM.
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Unread 03-13-2018, 03:49 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Wallace View Post
254's average winning margin in qualifying: 253
Just one off...
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Unread 03-13-2018, 04:08 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Note: I've edited this post to remove playoff matches. Higher seeds get assigned to red, which was throwing off data. No evidence of a red alliance conspiracy, as exciting as it would have been.

I was just doing some quick poking around vault points, and some interesting things popped up.

So, I took the difference between the unpenalized scores such that a positive difference was a blue win and a negative difference was a red win. Then, I made a matrix for each powerup, showing the average point difference for each combination of [red lvl played] vs [blue lvl played]. Color-coded, they look like this:



The boost table looks exactly how you would expect it. Alliances able to play more cubes scored more points. Easy correlation. The force table is interesting though. If a team plays force 1 or 2 when their opponent doesn't play force at all, they usually lose. If a team plays force 3 when their opponent doesn't, they usually win. Force 1 or 2 is a desperation play, force 3 is a "because we can" play.
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Last edited by BordomBeThyName : 03-13-2018 at 04:36 PM.
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Unread 03-13-2018, 04:12 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

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Last edited by BordomBeThyName : 03-13-2018 at 04:23 PM.
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Unread 03-13-2018, 04:19 PM
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Re: [paper] 2018 raw score data and analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by BordomBeThyName View Post
Here's a histogram of red and blue unpenalized scores. Looks like red alliance is doing measurably better all around. What's up with that?
Not sure if it accounts for all of the variation but the red alliance is the higher seed in elims.
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