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  #16   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 12-24-2016, 12:58 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 View Post
I don't know if this will make you feel any better, but I opened it with Excel and it didn't work and brought up a VB debugging window.
Have you downloaded it recently? My very original upload had a bug which I have since corrected, you might have been one of the 6 people who downloaded it before I deleted it.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 01:05 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by EricH View Post
Put 'em in the whitepaper's slot--you can attach multiple documents to one whitepaper. The Extra Discussion forum doesn't allow attachments (or deletions, generally speaking) due to some logic that I don't remember but makes sense from when I was informed about it.
I have put them with the whitepaper. I really don't like doing that though since I prefer my whitepapers to be fully self-explanatory, and for this I really just wanted to post some data which had context provided by my post.

I would love to hear the reasoning for this restriction sometime if anyone knows it.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 01:27 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by Mark McLeod View Post
OpenOffice works with it.
The team lookup tab didn't work for me in OpenOffice 4.1.3, or Excel 2007. It did work in Excel 2013. it looks like some of the features it uses were added in Excel 2013.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 01:40 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
Have you downloaded it recently? My very original upload had a bug which I have since corrected, you might have been one of the 6 people who downloaded it before I deleted it.
I was one of the six, but then it didn't seem to get fixed when I re-downloaded it. I'm also having no luck with LibreOffice.

The other parts of the spreadsheet are interesting to look at though. It's fun to get some numbers to see both how horrible my team was in 2008 and how good we were in 2013.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 09:00 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
The team lookup tab didn't work for me in OpenOffice 4.1.3, or Excel 2007. It did work in Excel 2013. it looks like some of the features it uses were added in Excel 2013.
My mistake, I mixed my machines and which one had OpenOffice and which had Excel.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 11:09 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
The team lookup tab didn't work for me in OpenOffice 4.1.3, or Excel 2007. It did work in Excel 2013. it looks like some of the features it uses were added in Excel 2013.
It seems to work fine if you replace all instances of FullSeriesCollection with SeriesCollection and saving the changes in the debugger.
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Unread 12-24-2016, 02:04 PM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by EricH View Post
The Extra Discussion forum doesn't allow attachments (or deletions, generally speaking) due to some logic that I don't remember but makes sense from when I was informed about it.
Was it because of all the spam going on in the Rumor Mill, Chit-Chat, and Extra Discussion?
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Unread 12-25-2016, 12:18 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

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Originally Posted by Cothron Theiss View Post
Was it because of all the spam going on in the Rumor Mill, Chit-Chat, and Extra Discussion?
No, it was something to do with the risk of stuff happening with the original paper/picture. This was before the spam influx.
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Unread 12-25-2016, 02:44 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

A couple things, it appears you are just using the raw elo differences in calculating red win likelihood. that is (red1+red2+red3) - (blue1 + blue2 + blue3).

I'm thinking if you're going to calculate win chance, you want to average out the elo on each side. However, it seems FRC Elo win percentages don't quite follow chess win percentages based on Elo. I went ahead and generated a cumulative distribution plot based on 2016 match data (and given elo ratings from the spreadsheet). I got what is shown in the plot below. The blue line is the "standard" chess Elo win probability CDF (a logistic distribution CDF), while the orange is from match data. I fit both a logistic CDF (gray) and Gaussian CDF (yellow).
The modded Logistic Dist had a mean of 0 and st. dev of 55 while the Gaussian dist had a mean of 0 and st. dev of 93.



What does this mean? Well, potentially, difference in Elo rating could potentially be a better predictor of winning FRC matches than chess matches. That is, a small difference in average alliance Elo rating has a larger effect on Win % in FRC (2016) than chess.

Last edited by Michael Hill : 12-25-2016 at 02:46 AM.
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Unread 12-25-2016, 02:51 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

Another thing to consider, however, is the distribution of Elo differences. So it's potentially a bit less useful than I made it out to be in the previous post because a huge amount of matches have a fairly small Elo difference.

http://i.imgur.com/bJRlgqu.png
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Unread 12-25-2016, 12:55 PM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Hill View Post
A couple things, it appears you are just using the raw elo differences in calculating red win likelihood. that is (red1+red2+red3) - (blue1 + blue2 + blue3).

I'm thinking if you're going to calculate win chance, you want to average out the elo on each side. However, it seems FRC Elo win percentages don't quite follow chess win percentages based on Elo. I went ahead and generated a cumulative distribution plot based on 2016 match data (and given elo ratings from the spreadsheet). I got what is shown in the plot below. The blue line is the "standard" chess Elo win probability CDF (a logistic distribution CDF), while the orange is from match data. I fit both a logistic CDF (gray) and Gaussian CDF (yellow).
The modded Logistic Dist had a mean of 0 and st. dev of 55 while the Gaussian dist had a mean of 0 and st. dev of 93.



What does this mean? Well, potentially, difference in Elo rating could potentially be a better predictor of winning FRC matches than chess matches. That is, a small difference in average alliance Elo rating has a larger effect on Win % in FRC (2016) than chess.
Looking at Elo averages instead of sums should be equivalent to changing the x-scale on the cdf by a factor of 3, and that looks like what you have posted. It doesn't really change anything, because all you are doing is changing the scale. I used the sums in my calculations, which should provide a cdf similar to those found in things like chess.
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Unread 12-25-2016, 01:28 PM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
Looking at Elo averages instead of sums should be equivalent to changing the x-scale on the cdf by a factor of 3, and that looks like what you have posted. It doesn't really change anything, because all you are doing is changing the scale. I used the sums in my calculations, which should provide a cdf similar to those found in things like chess.
Other methods of combining alliance Elos, such as taking each alliance's max Elo or doing some kind of weighted average would make a difference. I just haven't investigated these alternatives.
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Unread 12-26-2016, 03:28 AM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

We played around with TrueSkill last year...

https://github.com/thedropbears/TrueSkill

TrueSkill is the natural successor to Elo. It was created at Microsoft for online matchmaking, and as such is able to deal with alliances of players.

A good explanation of the algorithm is here:
http://www.moserware.com/2010/03/com...our-skill.html
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Unread 01-06-2017, 03:15 PM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

This is great stuff. I was just introduced to it and I have been using an extended lunch time (the day before kick off) to learn of its intricacies .
My first pass has been pretty impressed so far.

We are thinking of using this in our districts to predict for alliance selection (yet another data point to use with scouts)

Also I opened this on a mac using Numbers, as well as OpenOffice on a mac. It seemed fine in both.

I don't have excel on this machine but I would prefer it over the other two options.

I look forward to pouring over this with a bigger monitor.
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Unread 06-22-2017, 06:53 PM
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Re: paper: FRC Elo 2008-2016

I have updated to include 2017 data up through St. Louis Einstein. I'll post another update after FoC.
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