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Unread 03-03-2018, 09:18 PM
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MN State Championship 2018

I started this subject last year to watch the bubble so I figured I would start it again this year. Using the point scheme for this year, the bubble has been at 31 points the last two years (teams with 31 have been in and out the last two years). Last year TBA had district points listed for the regional events and that made this exercise easier. This year they don't. I am thinking 31 will hold as the line despite the additional tournament but it bears watching.


So Looking at the results from Great Northern....
Clearly in: 2220, 5172, 4539, 6175, 3750, 3130, 2491.

One bubble team is 5638. With 47 teams, I am not exactly sure where 22nd place lands for points. I am thinking around 12. Add in 2 for draft position and 20 for round bonuses...they are probably on the in side of things.

The other bubble team is 2883. With 47 teams and 12th place...I think that is 15 or 16 points. They get 13 for the draft position and 5 for the judges award. I am thinking they are also on the good side but the whole 47 team thing is making me question the 15 or 16 part of the equation.

Unfortunately for 2472, I think they might be short. 21st place is I think 13 points at most, add in 5 for the creativity award, and 10 for the draft pick slot puts them short of the 31 mark.

Anyone ranked or drafted below 3313 appears to be in a similar situation. I don't see the anything above the high 20s or lower.
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Unread 03-03-2018, 10:26 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

We’re excited to see how other teams do!
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2015 - Northern Lights Quarter Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2017 - Iowa Regional Semi-Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2018 - Great Northern Regional Finalists, Minnesota North Star Quarter Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2019 - ?????
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Unread 03-05-2018, 10:19 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

The official standings are up. It looks like I was a couple points low on my estimates for rank points. For some reason when I wrote my post I was thinking 0 to 22 instead of 3 to 22.

It makes things a little more interesting for 2472. At 30 points they could get in if the line moves down a bit this year.
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Unread 03-05-2018, 10:41 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whatever View Post
The official standings are up. It looks like I was a couple points low on my estimates for rank points. For some reason when I wrote my post I was thinking 0 to 22 instead of 3 to 22.

It makes things a little more interesting for 2472. At 30 points they could get in if the line moves down a bit this year.
I'm going to guess that the line moves up a fair amount this year with GNR now in play. Think about all those teams at Northern Lights that will be picked now, that wouldn't have been picked with all the talented teams from GNR back in NL.
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Unread 03-06-2018, 12:20 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginger Power View Post
I'm going to guess that the line moves up a fair amount this year with GNR now in play. Think about all those teams at Northern Lights that will be picked now, that wouldn't have been picked with all the talented teams from GNR back in NL.
To get to 30 points you roughly need to be one of the following:
1. Captain or First pick of a semi-finalist alliance
2. Second pick of a finalist alliance
3. Captain or first pick of a quarter finalist alliance that wins an award
4. Rookie team that gets drafted
5. Captain or first pick of a quarter finalist alliance in your second year
6. In the top 5 qualification spots.

The big thing that moves the line up is upsets in the quarterfinals or a lot of rookie teams being second round picks. The first makes categories 1 and 6 different teams. The second make category 4 bigger.

My guess is Duluth will add a bunch of teams but after that it is going to be a struggle for teams. 10K last years had 40+ teams at their first event. This year Medtronic is down to 33. North Star saw similar drops. That means a lot of teams will be at their second event and those points will be lost.

There is significantly more rookie teams going in Minneapolis this year and they are the wild cards.
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Unread 03-06-2018, 12:44 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whatever View Post
The official standings are up. It looks like I was a couple points low on my estimates for rank points. For some reason when I wrote my post I was thinking 0 to 22 instead of 3 to 22.

It makes things a little more interesting for 2472. At 30 points they could get in if the line moves down a bit this year.
A 47 team event has the following qualification ranking point breakdown:

Code:
Ranking	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47
Points	22	21	20	20	19	19	18	18	17	17	16	16	16	15	15	15	15	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4
We decided not to publish any more breakdowns than in the past, as teams have still been adding/dropping, even as recently as this week!
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Unread 03-06-2018, 01:34 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

For all who want to see the rankings, they can be found here.
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2015 - Northern Lights Quarter Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2017 - Iowa Regional Semi-Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2018 - Great Northern Regional Finalists, Minnesota North Star Quarter Finalists, Minnesota State Qualifiers
2019 - ?????
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:02 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

*grumble grumble gripe gripe, *something about being in ND whereas we play with 90% MN teams* grumble*
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:21 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyehawk View Post
*grumble grumble gripe gripe, *something about being in ND whereas we play with 90% MN teams* grumble*
*grumble grumble *impatiently waits for invites* grumble*
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:28 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poppeseed View Post
*grumble grumble *impatiently waits for invites* grumble*
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyehawk View Post
*grumble grumble gripe gripe, *something about being in ND whereas we play with 90% MN teams* grumble*
Let's just focus on growing North Dakota and then we can have our own State Championship and not invite the Minnesota teams!
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:30 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

I-29 robotics alliance. I keep saying this. KC to the Canadian boarder. MN not invited. EZ.
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:52 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

For the record 7048 would easily be in. 876 would be on the probably in side of the bubble. (Edit - 4818 would likely make it as well but adding ND teams would definitely move the line higher than 31)

My suggestion is to attach a big zip tie to your school's flagpole such that it breaks the plane of the state line.

Last edited by Whatever : 03-07-2018 at 02:09 PM.
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Unread 03-07-2018, 12:53 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whatever View Post

My suggestion is to attach a big zip tie to your school's flagpole such that it breaks the plane of the state line.
Rofl.

If/when the Fargo diversion happens, Fargo et al. will be part of MN by definition of "MN owns the Red River". 7048 and 4818 should be a shoe-in.
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  • A small mountain of hardware, good memories & life lessons with 876: 2011 - 2018
  • Inevitable good times with 2767 : 2018 - ????

Last edited by Skyehawk : 03-07-2018 at 12:55 PM.
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Unread 03-07-2018, 02:55 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skyehawk View Post
Rofl.

If/when the Fargo diversion happens, Fargo et al. will be part of MN by definition of "MN owns the Red River". 7048 and 4818 should be a shoe-in.
We won't go without 876. Let me just talk with the diversion team and have them make a few modifications to the plan.
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Unread 03-11-2018, 07:01 PM
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Re: MN State Championship 2018

Just eyeballing the past weekend....

Clearly in: 2512, 2501, 2502, 2987, 2227, 4607, 2175, 3276, 2052, 3100, 6628, 3184
Probably in: 2181, 4174, 3630, 4623, 2846, 2977

On the bubble: 3926, 6022, 6044

I have 3926 at 32 (17 for qual place, 15 for draft position).
I have 6022 and 6044 at 31 (19 qual place, 12 draft position for both). I believe 6044 holds the fifth tie breaker (446 versus 352 for highest match score). 6022 finished a place higher (6v7) but both places are listed at 19 and the 4th tie breaker is qual position points. The caveat here being Northern Lights had 58 teams and the listing on the MNFirst site is for a 60 team tournament so that 19 for 6044 could be an 18.

These are unofficial - check the MNFirst website for the official ones when they get updated.

After week 2, I am seeing 19 clearly ins and 8 probables.
Those numbers are roughly in line with two ago years after Duluth but ahead of last year. At this time I would say there is no indication the line is going to move significantly but that remains a possibility.
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