OCCRA
Go to Post The game is leaking? That can only mean... - GeeTwo [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > Other > Car Nack's Corner
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Reply
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
  #1   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 02:25 PM
Car Nack Car Nack is offline
Registered User
no team
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Endless Sands
Posts: 43
Car Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond reputeCar Nack has a reputation beyond repute
Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.
Reply With Quote
  #2   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 02:32 PM
Christopher149 Christopher149 is offline
Registered User
FRC #0857 (Superior Roboworks) FTC 10723 & 13284 (SnowBots)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Rookie Year: 2007
Location: Houghton, MI
Posts: 1,165
Christopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond reputeChristopher149 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Car Nack View Post
Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.
The almighty Car Nack has returned!

Hmm, seems like a 2012 sort of prediction. Considering we were picked by the #2 seed at an event in 2012 and lost in QF, I do not disagree.
__________________
2015-present: FTC 10723 & 13284 mentor
2012-present: 857 mentor
2008-2011: 857 student

2015: Industrial Design, Excellence in Engineering, District Finalist, Archimedes Division (#6 alliance captain)
2014: Judges Award, District Engineering Inspiration, District Finalist, Galileo Division

Reply With Quote
  #3   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 02:39 PM
lynca's Avatar
lynca lynca is offline
Andrew Lynch
FRC #2587 (DiscoBots)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Rookie Year: 2001
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,682
lynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond reputelynca has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

This is a big prediction from CarNack !
The #1 seed typically wins more than 25% of the events in previous years.
__________________
History: 624 -->118 --> 2158 --> 2587
LinkedIn , Facebook, Twitter
Reply With Quote
  #4   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 02:50 PM
Bob Steele's Avatar
Bob Steele Bob Steele is offline
FIRST Senior Mentor - Washington
AKA: Bob Steele
FRC #1983 (Skunk Works Robotics)
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Rookie Year: 2002
Location: Seattle, Washington
Posts: 1,585
Bob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond reputeBob Steele has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???
__________________
4H TEAM 1983 Skunk Works Robotics- Seattle, Washington
Reply With Quote
  #5   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 02:56 PM
IronicDeadBird's Avatar
IronicDeadBird IronicDeadBird is offline
Theory Crafting Fo days...
AKA: Charles Ives "M" Waldo IV
FRC #1339 (Angelbots)
Team Role: Tactician
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Colorado
Posts: 959
IronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Car Nack View Post
Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.
Wow...
__________________
HERO 俺を讃える声や 喝采なんて 欲しくはないさ
So I got my jacket back, but it turns out the "W" in WPI doesn't stand for that steak sauce I can't pronounce.
Play is for kids this is serious...
Reply With Quote
  #6   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:02 PM
Doug Frisk's Avatar
Doug Frisk Doug Frisk is offline
Keeping Score
AKA: Doug Frisk
FRC #2512
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Rookie Year: 2011
Location: Behind the FMS
Posts: 463
Doug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond reputeDoug Frisk has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

It's a perfectly reasonable prediction. This year a plan executed well will overcome the best individual robots.

The qualifications will do a good job of seeding the best robots high. The best team players and the best strategists may not seed number 1.
Reply With Quote
  #7   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:15 PM
Rangel's Avatar
Rangel Rangel is offline
John Rangel
FRC #0842 (Falcon Robotics)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 852
Rangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond reputeRangel has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

I can see Car Nack's points but I disagree. A team that makes a robot to effectively rank 1 is probably strategic enough to pick really good partners that compliment them as well. Teams still have to win matches to rank 1 in addition to breaching and capturing as well. And since breaching and capturing does not award in game points for qualifying matches, the rank 1 team will likely be a strong scorer on their own. A lower seeded alliance that has an earlier third bot can have a decent chance of working together to take down the top 2 bots but I think they would still be the underdogs. Will have to wait and see I guess
__________________
2012 Dean's List Winner
2011-2014 Arizona Regional Winners
2016 Las Vegas Regional Winner
2014-? Mentor


Reply With Quote
  #8   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:15 PM
JesseK's Avatar
JesseK JesseK is offline
Expert Flybot Crasher
FRC #1885 (ILITE)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Reston, VA
Posts: 4,030
JesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Now this is one of the most interesting Car Nack predictions ever, IMO. I need to think this one through...
__________________

Drive Coach, 1885 (2007-present)
Latest Project: Codex-based FRC Comms in Java

2017: Scoring Model | COPR Rank Simulator
1885: YouTube Channel | CAD Library | GitHub
Reply With Quote
  #9   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:22 PM
Caleb Sykes's Avatar
Caleb Sykes Caleb Sykes is offline
Registered User
AKA: inkling16
no team
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Posts: 1,329
Caleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond reputeCaleb Sykes has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by IronicDeadBird View Post
Wow...
My thoughts exactly. For reference, the number one seed won 50% of events in 2014 and 70% in 2015, and I'm pretty sure 2014 was a low outlier when compared to prior years, although I would have to look at the older data again.

Regardless, this is quite the claim.
Reply With Quote
  #10   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:23 PM
Steven Donow Steven Donow is offline
Registered User
AKA: Scooby
no team
Team Role: College Student
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Rookie Year: 2009
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 1,335
Steven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond reputeSteven Donow has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Christopher149 View Post
The almighty Car Nack has returned!

Hmm, seems like a 2012 sort of prediction. Considering we were picked by the #2 seed at an event in 2012 and lost in QF, I do not disagree.
Bouncing off of this, does anyone have the data on the % of #1 seeds that won their events over the past few years?
Reply With Quote
  #11   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:32 PM
JesseK's Avatar
JesseK JesseK is offline
Expert Flybot Crasher
FRC #1885 (ILITE)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Reston, VA
Posts: 4,030
JesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond reputeJesseK has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

This prediction boils down to minimizing the advantages of first seed (first pick, playing vs 8th seed in QF's which allows the alliance to become cohesive before facing tougher opponents) while maximizing the disadvantage of first seed (16th pick).
  • No 2nd picks which fill in the gaps for the 1st seed are available as the 16th pick
  • Theory that the first seed will likely be a team who did the 'defense agreement' too much, therefore no other captains want to be their partner since no one knows what the 1st seed is REALLY capable of
Sure I'm missing others...

Curiously, I wonder if what led to this prediction is the thought that 8th seed (or 4th/5th seed) may have the upper hand in QF's simply due to variety in selection.
__________________

Drive Coach, 1885 (2007-present)
Latest Project: Codex-based FRC Comms in Java

2017: Scoring Model | COPR Rank Simulator
1885: YouTube Channel | CAD Library | GitHub

Last edited by JesseK : 01-12-2016 at 03:34 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #12   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:38 PM
T3_1565 T3_1565 is offline
Old school linkage designer
AKA: Twitch Drive Designer
FRC #3161 (Tronic Titans)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Burlington, Ontario
Posts: 856
T3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant futureT3_1565 has a brilliant future
Send a message via MSN to T3_1565
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Maybe this is based off of a 3rd robot being more important in this game then others?

I don't think there is much room for "hold my ramp and don't move" robots this year. Plus even for the argument on defensive bots as a 3rd bot, the bottom list of teams will be teams that attempted a drivetrain for cross defenses and failed, There drivetrain may be worse off then a kitbot that far down the list.

Just my thoughts on the reasoning.
Reply With Quote
  #13   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:39 PM
IronicDeadBird's Avatar
IronicDeadBird IronicDeadBird is offline
Theory Crafting Fo days...
AKA: Charles Ives "M" Waldo IV
FRC #1339 (Angelbots)
Team Role: Tactician
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Colorado
Posts: 959
IronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond reputeIronicDeadBird has a reputation beyond repute
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

I'm personally just blown away by such a strong read by someone day 4 of the competition. Everything in it lines up so well. I just feel dumb right now.
__________________
HERO 俺を讃える声や 喝采なんて 欲しくはないさ
So I got my jacket back, but it turns out the "W" in WPI doesn't stand for that steak sauce I can't pronounce.
Play is for kids this is serious...
Reply With Quote
  #14   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:41 PM
Kevin Sevcik's Avatar
Kevin Sevcik Kevin Sevcik is offline
(Insert witty comment here)
FRC #0057 (The Leopards)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1998
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 3,905
Kevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond reputeKevin Sevcik has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to Kevin Sevcik Send a message via Yahoo to Kevin Sevcik
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

I suspect part of this is the assumption that those bonus ranking points are going to shake up the standing more than usual. 1 RP in quals probably is worth more than 25 match points in elims, so Car Nack has a bit of a point. The attributes that make a #1 seed aren't as well aligned with winning Elims as they usually are.
__________________
The difficult we do today; the impossible we do tomorrow. Miracles by appointment only.

Lone Star Regional Troubleshooter
Reply With Quote
  #15   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 01-12-2016, 03:43 PM
The_ShamWOW88's Avatar
The_ShamWOW88 The_ShamWOW88 is offline
Senior Mentor/Coach
FRC #0157 (Aztechs)
Team Role: Coach
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Rookie Year: 2002
Location: Marlborough
Posts: 372
The_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to beholdThe_ShamWOW88 is a splendid one to behold
Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Car Nack View Post
Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.
Based on the fact that even if you lose a match, you can still conceivably get the same ranking points if you had won, will skew the seeding a bit.

The mystery of Car Nack continues...
__________________
"The best way to predict the future is design it"

"Striving for excellence through inspiration"
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:59 AM.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi