Predictions Championship 2012: Einstein

[Looking Forward]

From the four hundred teams loading in their robots today, only twelve will emerge from their divisions to compete on Einstein. Only three of those will scrape together the last four wins necessary to be crowned champions, giving everything they and their machines have left in the tank to do so. Robots will be beat up and far from their initial calibrations. The teams who can adapt on the fly and best avoid these issues will be the ones with the best odds. But all twelve teams will be well used to the rigors of elimination play by this point.

This game has the potential for absolute greatness at the highest levels. It also has the potential to be a disciplined and well controlled game, where starvation and ball control are more important than blasting away at the net at every given opportunity. When the top teams tango, it will come down to who can out execute the other. Expect smart play to prevail.

All twelve teams will be able to score three point buckets, and likely from the key (even if it isn't their preferred position). Each alliance will be capable of putting up 36+ points in hybrid in a good match, though it won't happen every match. All four alliances will have the capability to gun for the co-op bridge in autonomous, but in some cases it may be to prevent the other team from reaching the balls more than it is to score the balls themselves. All four alliances will have triple balanced to reach Einstein, and will likely chose to triple themselves instead of subjecting themselves to the judgement calls of referees when it comes to bridge defense.

Tele-op game play will have a focus on obtaining loose balls and avoiding putting any of the balls on the ground. Human loading may become a key factor for robots on the far side of the court, as it can save precious seconds compared to loading from the lane. Some alliances will opt to have robots pass balls forward, while others will opt for teams loading and crossing the field to score. Crossing the barrier will be hotly contested, especially after alliances scope out each others' strategies. Expect battles for loose balls and crossing the field, with teams trying to goad one another into taking a penalty via contacting the bridge or obtaining a lane violation. Teams that can rapidly change from crossing a defended barrier to hopping over their alliance bridge may have an edge.

As with any year, the participants on Einstein will be hugely impacted by the seeding in qualifications. This year, the seeding system is particularly volatile with the inclusion of coopertition points. It's going to take a perfect, or near perfect, QP to seed first and probably just shy of 30 of the 36 possible QP to be an alliance captain. This makes predicting how the tournaments will play out particularly difficult, but it won't stop me from taking a guess. Not to mention the loss of a "sure thing" bet in 177 (as well as Einstein regulars 217, who missed CMP by a single point in FiM, and 71).

ARCHIMEDES:
HOT utilizes their surefire coopertition skills to edge out the competition for the #1 seed. They select 2056 first and the Adambots with the last pick of the draft. They're significantly challenged along the elimination tournament, but 1114 is eliminated at some point due to a failed triple balance.
67/2056/245

CURIE:
The High Rollers stay close to undefeated and emerge as the top seed on Curie. They select Daisy, who seeded highly as well. The rookies from Indiana, 3940, round out the alliance. Other major contenders are split up pretty well, and despite some close calls the #1 alliance emerges from Curie in only 6 or 7 matches.
987/341/3940

GALILEO:
None of the major players go undefeated, but the Bomb Squad are still a mid seed captain. They select the Killer Bees, who showed promise but were inconsistent in qualifications, and 801 (the twin of 1592). The original "stinger" helps them triple balance quicker and more consistently than most of their foes, and some strong fender defense keeps their opponents off balance. It's close, but they emerge on top.
16/33/801

NEWTON:
A mid-major power seeds on top and claims D'Penguineers with the first selection. Las Guerillas seed 3rd or 4th and add Wildstang and Birds of Prey to their alliance. The deep Newton field provides plenty of challenge, but 469 and 111's dual assault and veteran tactics help them overcome the adversity.
469/111/181

EINSTEIN:
AvC and GvN in the first round.

987/341/3940 defeat 67/2056/245 in three, tightly contested matches. Daisy's hybrid proves the difference.
469/111/181 defeat 16/33/801 in two matches. Galileo simply can't match the speed and volume of Newton's offense.

469/111/181 top 987/341/3940 in three matches. A mistimed failure or hybrid miss costs Curie their chance at their first championship, while Wildstang gets their second in a row, fourth overall (to tie Beatty), and their second alongside 469 (2003).



These predictions are just a bit of fun. Neither these, nor the division threads, are meant to be comprehensive. Don't like 'em?
Go out there and prove them wrong!

[penguinfrk]

Interesting, no specific comments on triple balance except on Galileo.

Looking forward to how it all actually turns out!

[Steven Donow]

Looking at past Einstein predictions, it looks like usually one alliance has the captain and first pick correct. IMO the alliance of Daisy and High Rollers looks to be most likely. It'll be interesting to see how Archimedes plays out with 2056, HOT, and Simbotics.

However, I don't see the winner of Curie/Archimedes(assuming the alliances are close to what's here, ie. HOT with 1114 instead of 2056, or any other combination of the three) NOT winning Einstein overall. Especially if 987/341 are with 3940. Part of me also thinks that the 16/33 combo would defeat the 469/111 combo...unsure about that one...

[stundt1]

Nice predictions LF.

So im not completely convinced that Curie defeats Archimedes though. Its a very close call it seems.

Einstein this year is going to be very close and a failed balance or hybrid will determine it.

Good luck teams.

While I love LF's predictions, it's crazy how accurate they are, and I want to see Las Penguinauts emerge victors from Newton. (469, 1717, 118)

Looks like the next few days will tell if LF is right once again.

[Norman J]

Originally Posted by SuperNerd256

I want to see Las Penguinauts emerge victors from Newton. (469, 1717, 118)

Uh, implying any of those three is a third pick? If this happens, I'll swallow a sword.

[A_Reed]

Originally Posted by SuperNerd256

While I love LF's predictions, it's crazy how accurate they are, and I want to see Las Penguinauts emerge victors from Newton. (469, 1717, 118)

Looks like the next few days will tell if LF is right once again.

The field would have to be blind, deaf and insane to let that combination happen, 2 of the 3 maybe. I doubt any of those teams will make it past the 17-18ish range.

Originally Posted by Norman J

Uh, implying any of those three is a third pick? If this happens, I'll swallow a sword.

Originally Posted by A_Reed

The field would have to be blind, deaf and insane to let that combination happen, 2 of the 3 maybe. I doubt any of those teams will make it past the 17-18ish range.

A guy can dream, can't he? Realistically, it'll most likely be a wide feeder bot that can back up the two high scoring machines and will enable a triple balance simply and effectively.

So Las Penguinxxxxx?

[Peyton Yeung]

Originally Posted by SuperNerd256

So Las Penguinxxxxx?

Las penguinkats!

45 is hopeful

[MichaelBick]

Honestly, the chance of 1717 or 469 not seeding 1st, is very, very low. Of course there is luck.

[LeelandS]

You can never count on any team, no matter how strong, to seed first. If you look at just last year, you'd have expected teams like 1114, 2056, 111, 71, 67, 118 or 33 to have seeded first in their divisions. However, none of them did, and last year mostly consisted of teams no one expected to seed first!

Maybe my example is flawed, but the point I'm getting at is, rankings are largely based on schedule. Even if 469 or 1717 coop balance EVERY MATCH, losses can still bring down their rating. Especially on a deep field like Newton, expect the first seeded team, not to be the best team, but the team that pulls the best schedule related to their ability.

[stundt1]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

You can never count on any team, no matter how strong, to seed first. If you look at just last year, you'd have expected teams like 1114, 2056, 111, 71, 67, 118 or 33 to have seeded first in their divisions. However, none of them did, and last year mostly consisted of teams no one expected to seed first!

Maybe my example is flawed, but the point I'm getting at is, rankings are largely based on schedule. Even if 469 or 1717 coop balance EVERY MATCH, losses can still bring down their rating. Especially on a deep field like Newton, expect the first seeded team, not to be the best team, but the team that pulls the best schedule related to their ability.

To add to your statement Co-op adds another way for upsets to occur. Such as the 1114 and 2056 splitting up. Teams with a great schedule can wiggle themselves up in the rankings.

Newton seems very leveled and its pretty hard to predict the outcome on a deep field. 1 qualification match could make all the difference in the outcome of pretty much any field.

Don't expect those teams to always get the first seed in the divisions.

[Gray Adams]

I'm curious about those second round picks. I would not expect to to see some of those teams on Einstein.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Gray Adams

I'm curious about those second round picks. I would not expect to to see some of those teams on Einstein.

Did you expect to see 1139 on Einstein in 2006? 3357 in 2010? 348 in 2008? 1270 in 2007? 177 in, well, almost any of the years they made it?

[Bill_B]

Will DFS (dead Field Syndrome) strike Einstein this year? Or any other divisions?