OPR vs Record at championship

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

I can tell you 422 went the opposite of the OPR projection of 2-6 and posted a 6-2 record and everyone will agree that CMP was by far nowhere near as good on the whole as DCR, and the actual robot scores show that.

OPR is becoming less reliable as teams in CMP divisions are coming in with pre-CMP match differences of up to 50.

Another reason for that is that OPR doesn't compare well across events. Suppose regional A had a ton of defense, and regional B had wide-open scoring. Two robots of equal quality could each go to their regionals and have vastly different OPRs because at regional A, nobody could score well and at regional B, everyone was free to score. Projections based on OPR from each regional might show that the teams that went to regional A were much worse than the teams from regional B, but they're actually pretty strong.

It also ignores robot, team, strategy, and luck upgrades that might occur between regionals and championships.

[dtengineering]

I'm okay with the qualifying system as it exists... I think it matches up operational requirements of the tournament with the goal of correctly sorting the teams. Its not perfect, of course, but it is as good as a round-robin is likely to get.

Round robin tournaments aren't the only way to organize a tournament however. I think a Swiss System type tournament could be organized where all the teams start at the same level, but either advance or drop down based on their record.

This way, while teams play their first match in random alliances, it would quickly work out so that top teams ended up playing against/with other top teams, while weaker teams would play against/with other weak teams.

It would take some planning, and I'm certainly not saying that change is needed... I'm just pointing out that change is possible.

Jason

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

I can tell you 422 went the opposite of the OPR projection of 2-6 and posted a 6-2 record and everyone will agree that CMP was by far nowhere near as good on the whole as DCR, and the actual robot scores show that.

Note that defense is much more important at the championships than at any regional. Robots are much more beaten up after 8 matches than after 10-12 at regionals. That means that individual robot scores will drop.

[PayneTrain]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Note that defense is much more important at the championships than at any regional. Robots are much more beaten up after 8 matches than after 10-12 at regionals. That means that individual robot scores will drop.

On the flip side of the coin, some teams have their robots at peak performance by championships.

[MamaSpoldi]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Note that defense is much more important at the championships than at any regional. Robots are much more beaten up after 8 matches than after 10-12 at regionals. That means that individual robot scores will drop.

REALLY?? We found far, FAR less defense at Championships than at either of the Regionals we attended this year (BAE - week 1, and CT - week 5).

[OrangeCataclysm]

Originally Posted by MamaSpoldi

REALLY?? We found far, FAR less defense at Championships than at either of the Regionals we attended this year (BAE - week 1, and CT - week 5).

More defense I would say was played in elims, especially in Curie. My team can attest to that

[MamaSpoldi]

Originally Posted by OrangeCataclysm

More defense I would say was played in elims, especially in Curie. My team can attest to that

I didn't really get to see division elims as I was in the pit helping pack up, but I was surprised at the general lack of defense on Einstein.

[OrangeCataclysm]

Originally Posted by MamaSpoldi

I didn't really get to see division elims as I was in the pit helping pack up, but I was surprised at the general lack of defense on Einstein.

I saw more defense in Curie v. Archimedes than any other matchup. To be honest, I wasn't expecting a whole lot of defense. Once the full court shooters stopped full courting or were eliminated, much of the defense ceased.

[minhnhatbui]

Originally Posted by MamaSpoldi

I didn't really get to see division elims as I was in the pit helping pack up, but I was surprised at the general lack of defense on Einstein.

As my students pointed out: defense was well planned on Curie, but went full speed to the landfill on Einstein field because, well, playing in front of 20,000 spectators is somewhat very stressful. I tend to agree with them on that one.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by OrangeCataclysm

More defense I would say was played in elims, especially in Curie. My team can attest to that

We selected 862 in large part for its defensive capabilities and they held off 67. 4814 demonstrated in Curie how important defense can be.

[Citrus Dad]

Originally Posted by MamaSpoldi

REALLY?? We found far, FAR less defense at Championships than at either of the Regionals we attended this year (BAE - week 1, and CT - week 5).

Maybe you needed to play in Curie. 4814 made it to the division finals through defense and counter defense. We beat 2056 through defense.

[Siri]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Maybe you needed to play in Curie. 4814 made it to the division finals through defense and counter defense. We beat 2056 through defense.

Curie was great, but I didn't see anything in terms of defense there that hadn't happened at other events. Similar D and counter-D are exceedingly common this year (for good reason).

[Citrus Dad]

Note: I was reviewing the 2834 database and think I found that the Championship OPRs are in error. The sums of the individual components often do not add up to the Total. (3824's in Curie is off by 32.) A quick scan of the regionals finds in some cases no deviations whatsoever and <2 pts maximum in others. I suggest going back and recomputing the OPRs.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Note: I was reviewing the 2834 database and think I found that the Championship OPRs are in error. The sums of the individual components often do not add up to the Total. (3824's in Curie is off by 32.) A quick scan of the regionals finds in some cases no deviations whatsoever and <2 pts maximum in others. I suggest going back and recomputing the OPRs.

redirect here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...30#post1276030

[shrkeatsman]

i think that if there is an OPR there should also be a DPR defensive power rating,
because like my team we were all most always playing defense and were put up against teams that we had a hard time playing defense against. So our ranking defiantly didn't show our potential.