2014: the year of the underdog

[omalleyj]

Originally Posted by JesseK

<snip> The time to score the goal (either goal) is when the 'defensive' robot goes to get the assist for their alliance.

I think it's really more a year of smart strategists and smart drivers. <snip>

I disagree with your first point, because of your second point. Good strategy would be to always have the robot not involved in assists doing defending. Which means either the two most capable robots assisting each other and the third always defending, or any combination where the defender never breaks off until a replacement is almost there.
The only way to counter is two robots that can pass and receive faster than can be defended. I think this is unlikely unless its very top tier against a fairly slow defender.

Of course, all that said, you know some teams will find ways to score. They always do

[ToddF]

Our team finished working through our analysis of the game yesterday. When I came back to CD this morning I was struck by the irony of the title of the "not so secret endgame" thread. It's ironic because the end game this year is not so secret. This year, the end game is cycling. This becomes more apparent when you do cycle time analysis, adding up the time required to perform the actions in a fully scoring cycle. The overwhelming time killer is chasing uncontrolled balls around the field.

This year's game has been fiendishly designed to tempt teams to shoot for the high goals during autonomous. But at the same time, the field is designed to make successful high goal shots in auto fiendishly difficult. The robots must start in the white zone. The white line is a long way from the goal. If you've tried it, you know that a successful goal from the starting position is difficult even for a person. Most robots will need to drive forward and get closer to the goal to make that shot, stopping in just the right spot. This isn't easy. I don't expect many will be able to do so. Let's say, one in three. And if there is only one robot which can do it, putting a goalie in front of them reduces their chances further. The net result is that high goal attempts in autonomous will result in many balls that rebound, often all the way to the far side of the field.

Let's say one of the three high goal attempts in auto goes in. That leaves two balls that must be retrieved and brought back for shooting. But, where do you shoot from? There are no easy references, like a pyramid, or a key. Plus, defenders are allowed to hit you while you are shooting. So let's say 1 of the two remaining auto balls makes it. That means you get to play "go fetch" AGAIN. Alliances which are enticed into the trap of only going for high goals will be lucky to have time to complete even one "cycle", let alone multiples. They will spend all their time chasing rebounds from missed high goal attempts.

Contrast this with an alliance of low goal scorers in auto. They might come out of the first 10 seconds with a lower score, but even the balls which aren't scored are still under the robots control, and can be quickly disposed of. Then, these three robots are ready to begin cycling IMMEDIATELY. And it's the triple assist scoring cycles that really run the score up.

[epylko]

Todd put together a great summary of the possibilities this year.

I think we'll end up with more teams playing a ground game this year. There are too many chances to lose control of the ball when it is in the air:

- If you're trying to catch after going over the truss, a small bump to the receiver will strip them of the 10 points for catching, and the ball is loose on the field.
- If you are trying to shoot at the goal and get hit/moved, you miss the goal and the ball is loose on the field.

I suspect passing on the floor will be used with robots close to each other. Again, if you lose control of your ball, you're sunk.

-Eric

[ToddF]

Upon further reflection, and a good night's sleep...

This year, the game IS defense.

Defense against shooters isn't blocking their shots, like in 2013 and 2012. Blocking shots is only necessary if the shooters have safe zones from which to park, aim, and shoot. In 2014, defense against shooters is hitting them while they are trying to shoot. The 2014 game is football where the quarterback has no offensive line to protect him, and pass interference against receivers is permitted.

From a strategic point of view, consider how much harder it is to construct an accurate shooter than a robot that just pushes the balls around. Much of that extra effort is negated when it's legal to ram a shooter as they are shooting. Any scoring action (high goal scoring, the over-the-truss caught pass) that requires precise shooting becomes easy to defend against. The uncaught over-the-truss toss slightly less so, because it requires less precision. For teams with limited resources, I would suggest that those same resources and effort be spent to build two simple pusher bots very quickly, and then those bots be used to practice rapid exchanges and scoring quickly into the low goals. (With occasional detours to ram shooters).

If an alliance has a higher score, effort spent denying the other alliance from scoring is just as valuable as scoring yourself. There is only one ball at a time after auto. If you are ahead, and prevent that ball from being scored, you win. No further scoring on your part is necessary.

And, in the blessed event that one of those fancy shooters gets a ball stuck inside (how often did that happen with basketballs in 2012 and disks in 2013?), you have it made.

In recent games, the multitude of scoring pieces made defense tough. The math was simple. Two good offensive bots beat one good defensive bot because the defensive bot could only hinder one scorer at once. This year, even an alliance with three good offensive bots can be stopped by a single good defender, because after the initial 3 auto balls, there is only one game piece in play at a time.

[Rypsnort]

Originally Posted by epylko

Todd put together a great summary of the possibilities this year.

I think we'll end up with more teams playing a ground game this year. There are too many chances to lose control of the ball when it is in the air:

- If you're trying to catch after going over the truss, a small bump to the receiver will strip them of the 10 points for catching, and the ball is loose on the field.
- If you are trying to shoot at the goal and get hit/moved, you miss the goal and the ball is loose on the field.

I suspect passing on the floor will be used with robots close to each other. Again, if you lose control of your ball, you're sunk.

-Eric

In regards to the small bump while receiving a ball over the truss stripping the team of a chance to get the points:

If the team is able to just herd the ball in a desired direction they will receive points for a catch. (I remember reading this in the manual once, but I am having trouble finding that part of the manual again.)

[Whippet]

Originally Posted by Rypsnort

In regards to the small bump while receiving a ball over the truss stripping the team of a chance to get the points:

If the team is able to just herd the ball in a desired direction they will receive points for a catch. (I remember reading this in the manual once, but I am having trouble finding that part of the manual again.)

However, that herd has to happen before the ball touches the ground, which seems like it would be pretty hard to do.

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by Whippet

However, that herd has to happen before the ball touches the ground, which seems like it would be pretty hard to do.

One could argue that any large change in kinetic energy and direction while the robot is moving could be considered carrying or herding. So a 'high-quality pillow' on an inclined plane which nearly stops the ball and lets it fall to the floor could be considered a catch if the robot moves at all while in contact with the ball.

[Racer26]

While I agree Aerial Assist seems to be built to prevent elites from leaving everyone else in the dust, I think it will still happen, and I think it will happen in a way that ultimately is pretty discouraging to the weaker teams.

In recent posts, I've listed why I think an elite playing by themselves, with their two alliance partners clearing a road for them, will be able to score in the 150 territory.

In the predict week 1 scores thread, I outlined why I believe the average week 1 score will be about 73.5.

This means that unless paired with other significantly above average teams, the elites will likely tend to want their alliance to allow them to be the sole offensive machine, because the weaker teams will slow them down so much it reduces their total effective scoring ability, EVEN with the big bonuses for assists. 6 1-assist runs with a truss toss (20pts) and 4 2-assist runs with a truss toss (30pts) have the same total score.

[JesseK]

Originally Posted by Racer26

... 6 1-assist runs with a truss toss (20pts) and 4 2-assist runs with a truss toss (30pts) have the same total score.

For a single bot, I don't think it will be so efficient to run down the ball after it flies over the TRUSS.